Brexit to hit male manual workers in UK hardest, new research finds

The Institute for Fiscal Studies estimates that such workers are at ‘particular risk’ from the new barriers to trade that are likely after the UK leaves the EU

“Left behind” male manual workers are set to be some of the worst hit economically by Brexit, new research has found.

In 2016 Theresa May said that liberalism and globalisation had “left too many people behind”, citing people on “modest to low incomes ... [who] see their jobs being outsourced and wages undercut” and attributed the Brexit result partly to this dissatisfaction.

Polling has also shown that working class and less educated male voters were heavy supporters of leaving the EU.

But the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) in a new report today estimates that such workers are at “particular risk” from the new barriers to trade that are likely to be introduced after the UK leaves the EU.

The IFS finds that nearly 20 per cent of men with low levels of formal qualifications work in industries that are very highly exposed to such barriers, compared with 15 per cent of highly educated men and 10 per cent of highly educated women.

On a regional analysis, it says that men with fewer qualifications in the West Midlands, which had the highest Leave vote share in the country (59.3 per cent) in 2016, are “particularly exposed” due to the higher amount of manufacturing in the region.

According to the think tank, plant and machine operative occupations tend to be older with skills specific to their current roles, which is likely to make it more difficult for them to move to different jobs

Share of employed in very highly exposed industries

IFS

“If barriers to trade with the EU increase, particularly the sort of ‘non-tariff’ barriers created by customs checks and regulatory divergence, then some sectors of the economy will be affected more than others,” said Agnes Norris Keiller of the IFS

“Parts of the manufacturing sector are likely to be hardest hit. As a result, the jobs or wages of men with low formal qualifications working in certain manual occupations may be under particular threat. These are the sorts of workers who are most likely to find it hard to adapt and to find new roles that are equally well paid elsewhere.”

Nissan warned on Thursday that a no-deal Brexit would have “serious implications” for its Sunderland factory, which employs 8,000 people.

And Toyota warned that this week that the UK crashing out of the EU next March would result in a temporary stoppage in production at its Derby and Deeside plants and that it was hard to predict how long the pause would last.