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General Election 2015: Boost for Labour after three opinion polls put them ahead of Tories

The surveys gave it leads of six, four and three points

Friday 10 April 2015 10:28 BST

The apparent spike in Labour support follows Ed Miliband’s pledge to scrap the “non-dom” tax status (Getty Images)

Labour received a boost after three opinion polls put it in the lead over the Conservatives.

The surveys gave it leads of six, four and three points. If the trend is sustained, it will ring alarm bells in Downing Street over the Tories’ election tactics.

The apparent spike in Labour support follows Mr Miliband’s pledge to scrap the “non-dom” tax status of more than 100,000 wealthy UK residents.

A Survation poll for the Mirror put Labour on 35 per cent, with the Conservatives on 31, Ukip on 15, the Liberal Democrats on 9 and the Greens on 4.

It also carried good news for Mr Miliband personally, with voters saying for the first time that he was performing better than David Cameron. But he still trails the Prime Minister over who would be best to lead Britain after May 7.

Labour’s pledge to abolish "non-dom" tax status was backed by 59 per cent of the public and opposed by 16 per cent.

A survey by TNS UK put Labour on 33 per cent, the Conservatives 30, Ukip 19, the Lib Dems 8 and Greens 4.

In pictures: Experts' predictions for the General Election - 04/04/15

Show all 10

1/10In pictures: Experts' predictions for the General Election - 04/04/15

In pictures: Experts' predictions for the General Election - 04/04/15

Andrew Hawkins (ComRes)

“My position has moved: no party can win a majority now. I have also shifted in favour of the Conservatives winning more seats than Labour. That, however, assumes that the current Tory momentum is maintained and that they don’t do anything daft or careless between now and polling day. But the underlying pattern is distinctly in their favour.” (In January he predicted Labour would be the largest party, possibly with a small majority.)

Andrew Hawkins

In pictures: Experts' predictions for the General Election - 04/04/15

Joe Twyman (YouGov)

“Probably: a ‘well hung parliament’. Possibly: Conservatives winning most votes and seats, thanks, in part, to SNP gains at Labour’s expense. Speculation: Conservatives unable to form another coalition, not having enough seats with just the Lib Dems, but Labour better placed with SNP and Lib Dems – albeit informally.” (In January Twyman said: “Gun to my head? Labour minority government.”)

In pictures: Experts' predictions for the General Election - 04/04/15

Ben Page (Ipsos MORI)

“Stuck in ‘too close to call’ mode still, made harder by the way votes translate into seats in Parliament. If the parties remain neck and neck, Labour might just end up with more seats, but not a majority. We still have weeks of campaign to go and no clear picture for the marginals, where the polling that is being done suggests a lot of local variations that have plenty of potential to surprise us in May.” (Last time Page said it was a “mug’s game” to make predictions four months before an election.)

In pictures: Experts' predictions for the General Election - 04/04/15

Rick Nye (Populus)

“Since January, the Conservatives have clearly improved on the polls relative to Labour to the point where I’d expect the Conservatives to win the most seats as well as the most votes 7 May. What’s less clear is whether the Conservatives would be able to form a government. (In January Nye expected a hung parliament in which Labour would win most seats but not necessarily most votes.)

In pictures: Experts' predictions for the General Election - 04/04/15

Nick Moon (GfK)

“Something would need to change dramatically for there to be any chance of a one-party majority government. My guess: the Tories will be largest party, but some way short of forming even a two-party coalition. A Labour minority government seems most likely, but I won’t be putting money on it.” (Prediction unchanged since January.)

In pictures: Experts' predictions for the General Election - 04/04/15

Damian Lyons Lowe (Survation)

“On Survation’s public polling, Ed Miliband remains the person most likely to form the next government. However, he’s far from the workable majority figure required [321]. Friday 8 May will remain a day of deals and discussions with other parties to form the next government.” (In January he expected Labour to be the largest party in a hung parliament, by 40-50 seats over the Conservatives.)

In pictures: Experts' predictions for the General Election - 04/04/15

Michelle Harrison (TNS)

“It’s less a case of who wins but who can scrape over the line. Labour polls better on the NHS; the Tories poll better on the economy. Can any claim additional territory from the other over the remaining weeks? Probably not. But our polls show that the public thinks the Tories will be the largest party. In the absence of a firm lead, I’ll go with the wisdom of crowds.”

In pictures: Experts' predictions for the General Election - 04/04/15

James Endersby (Opinium Research)

“Despite the recent weekly statistical ties, we’ve witnessed the faint whispers of movement in the air and a slow, unsteady and shaky sway towards the Tories. How this shift plays out over the coming weeks obviously depends on a huge number of factors. My call, if this holds fast and momentum gathers: Conservatives 288, Labour 267, SNP 45, Lib Dems 24, Plaid Cymru 3, Ukip 3, Greens 2.” (In January he put Labour on 320 seats.)

In pictures: Experts' predictions for the General Election - 04/04/15

Martin Boon (ICM)

“I’m tempted to say: how should I know? I’m just a pollster. But I feel that Miliband may just have raised himself from the grave, so I’ll add a couple to where I had them before. Everyone else largely becalmed although, I see the Greens disappearing from view and Ukip sliding a touch. Tories 34 per cent, Lab 32 per cent, Lib Dems 14 per cent, Ukip 12 per cent. I don’t trust any academic model that translates vote shares into seats, so a seat projection from this is a pure and simple guess, which is Labour to be touching 300 seats with the Tories just behind.” (In January Boon predicted Labour on 290 seats.)

In pictures: Experts' predictions for the General Election - 04/04/15

Lord Ashcroft (Lord Ashcroft Polls)

He refuses to make predictions. “My polls are snapshots, not predictions.”

Rex

A Panelbase poll put Labour up four on 37 per cent and the Conservatives down two on 31, with Ukip on 16, the Lib Dems on 8%, and Greens on 4.

The Independent has got together with May2015.com to produce a poll of polls that produces the most up-to-date data in as close to real time as is possible.

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All data, polls and graphics are courtesy of May2015.com. Click through for daily analysis, in-depth features and all the data you need. (All historical data used is provided by UK Polling Report)

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