Brexit will increase deaths from heart disease by making fruit and veg more expensive, study warns

As many as 12,400 additional heart disease deaths could occur in a no-deal Brexit scenario but costs, and health harms, will increase whatever deal is agreed with the EU, researchers warn

Brexit could result in thousands more people dying from heart disease, strokes and conditions like cancer as price rises for fruit and vegetables will make maintaining a healthy diet increasingly unaffordable, researchers have warned.

Costs will rise no matter what trade agreement Theresa May’s government is eventually able to get through parliament, the study led by Imperial College London and Liverpool University predicts.

But crashing out without a deal could contribute to an additional 12,400 cardiovascular deaths between 2021 and 2030, according to the research published in the journal BMJ Open on Monday.

The findings come as major supermarkets, including Sainsbury’s, Asda, Marks & Spencer and Lidl, wrote to MPs warning that a no-deal Brexit will leave “shelves empty”.

Nearly a third of the UK’s food is imported from Europe, the British Retail Consortium warned ahead of Tuesday’s crucial votes in parliament.

But in March, when Britain is due to quit the European Union, 80 per cent of tomatoes and 70 per cent of soft fruit is imported from Europe and cannot be stockpiled – as the government has proposed for essential medicines.

Low fruit and vegetable intake is a “major risk factor” for cardiovascular disease, and any change in costs and availability could make an impact, the BMJ Open researchers warned.

“It’s quite easy to focus on the no-deal scenario but it’s going to be harmful across a range of scenarios,” Professor Christopher Millett, from the School of Public Health at Imperial College London, told The Independent.

“The free trade agreement proposed between the UK and the EU is still going to increase cardiovascular disease from increased prices.

He added: “Fruit and vegetables are protective for cancers, and also against overall risks of dying prematurely – so there’s a broader negative health impact than is measured here.”

To estimate the long-term effects of price rises on health, they used World Health Organisation and HM Revenue and Customs data to model consumption under four trade scenarios.

“A no-deal Brexit scenario could be the most harmful, increasing coronary heart disease and stroke deaths by approximately 0.9 per cent (4,110 deaths) and 2.9 per cent (8,290 deaths) respectively between 2021 and 2030,” the authors wrote.

The least disruptive outcome, a free trade agreement with the EU, could lead to 1,360 additional coronary heart disease deaths and 2,740 deaths from strokes.

In the event of a no-deal Brexit, which would entail the most significant cost increases, this is expected to increase the cost of bananas by 17 per cent, citrus fruits by 14 per cent, and tomatoes by 15 per cent on average.

Such price rises would lead to the British public eating between 3 per cent and 11 per cent less fruit or vegetables, depending on the future trade deal, the report estimates.

“Whatever the outcome of Brexit, it’s important that the nation isn’t hit with a large spike in prices that could make it harder to eat a heart-healthy diet,” said Victoria Taylor, from the British Heart Foundation.

“Unfortunately, most adults in the UK already struggle to eat the recommended five portions of fruit and veg a day.”

Waitrose, The Co-op, McDonald’s and KFC were also signatories to the British Retail Consortium letter on Monday.

“We are extremely concerned that our customers will be among the first to experience the realities of a no-deal Brexit,” they warned.

A Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs spokesperson said: “The UK has a high level of food security built upon a diverse range of sources, including strong domestic production and imports from other countries.

“This will continue to be the case whether we leave the EU with or without a deal.