EU referendum results: What time will we know who is winning?

Our Chief Political Commentator provides an hour-by-hour guide to what we will know and (roughly) when

The BBC's referendum coverage will be fronted by Emily Maitlis, David Dimbleby and Jeremy Vine (BBC)

There will be no exit poll, because the broadcasters could not be confident of getting an accurate enough result, with no recent referendum with which to compare today’s vote. But there will be a YouGov poll published when the polls close at 10pm.

This will be a survey of YouGov’s online panel, asking them how they have voted. A similar “on the day” YouGov poll for the Scottish referendum two years ago put the No vote at 54 per cent, one point out from the final result, 55 per cent.

Follow the latest live updates on the EU referendum

There will be a smaller panel survey by market research company TNS, also published at 10pm, of just 200 online voters, which is designed to find out why people might have changed their minds on the day, rather than to make a prediction.

10pm

The main television coverage starts with Sky News at 9.30pm. The BBC programme starts at 9.55pm and runs until 1pm on Friday. ITV’s results programme starts at 10pm.

For two hours or so, those two polls will be the main subject of conversation on all three channels. There might be discussion about anecdotal evidence on the level of turnout, and there might be speculation about whether movements on the currency markets earlier in the day suggest that a bank or hedge fund has information from an exit poll, or whether it was just a City rumour.

Midnight

The Press Association expects the first results to come in from the Isles of Scilly and Gibraltar at about midnight. These are small, atypical electorates from which it will be hard to deduce anything useful.

The vote is going to be counted by local councils and the first mainland results are expected at about half-past midnight. Sunderland, which is proud of its record in getting the first constituency to declare in general elections, is in a race tonight against Newcastle. You have to supply your own football joke, because I know nothing about it, but I am told, possibly misleadingly, that Newcastle has poached some of Sunderland’s best counting staff in its bid to steal the first-declaring crown.

But what will they mean?

The problem with interpreting results as they come in is that we have limited knowledge about what the votes in Sunderland and Newcastle might imply about the national count. We do not have a previous referendum to compare the figures with (the population has changed too much since the 1975 referendum).

However, Professor John Curtice and Stephen Fisher have for the BBC tried to estimate from opinion polls what kind of results to expect from different places. Chris Hanretty of the University of East Anglia has produced his own analysis: his estimates of the Leave and Remain percentages for each local council have been published on a spreadsheet that anyone can view.

His estimate is that Leave should be about six percentage points ahead in Sunderland if the outcome is indeed going to be close to 50-50, and Remain should be about 12 points ahead in Newcastle. Anything very different from those figures may suggest that one or other side is doing better.

1am

The first significant result outside the north-east is likely to be Swindon, estimated at 00.45, followed by Basildon and Stockport at 1.30.

2am

The results start coming thicker around now. If it is close, it will not be possible to be sure which side is going to win, but if there is a clear advantage for one side we should start to have evidence of it by now.

The small hours

Most of the results will be declared by about 5am. It should be clear between 4am and 5am what the result is, unless it is really close. The final results are expected at around 7am, by which time David Cameron should be ready to address the nation.

The EU referendum debate has so far been characterised by bias, distortion and exaggeration. So until 23 June we we’re running a series of question and answer features that explain the most important issues in a detailed, dispassionate way to help inform your decision.

What is Brexit and why are we having an EU referendum?

Does the UK need to take more control of its sovereignty?

Could the UK media swing the EU referendum one way or another?

Will the UK benefit from being released from EU laws?

Will we gain or lose rights by leaving the European Union?

Will Brexit mean that Europeans have to leave the UK?

Will leaving the EU lead to the break-up of the UK?

What will happen to immigration if there's Brexit?

Will Brexit make the UK more or less safe?

Will the UK benefit from being released from EU laws?

Will leaving the EU save taxpayers money and mean more money for the NHS?

What will Brexit mean for British tourists booking holidays in the EU?

Will Brexit help or damage the environment?

Will Brexit mean that Europeans have to leave the UK?

What will Brexit mean for British expats in Europe?