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General election 2015: Four charts that show who's winning in the swing constituencies (according to Twitter)

The #winners after the Question Time leader's special in the areas that could decide the election

Saturday 02 May 2015 18:56 BST

The Question Time election leaders special on 30 April 2015 saw the last chance for David Cameron, Nick Clegg and Ed Miliband to answer the big questions on a national stage.

A viewership of 4.3 million tuned in to watch the party leaders speak directly to the electorate, and as expected, twitter engaged thoroughly in the discussion.

In the build-up to polling day, this election was dubbed ‘the social media election’ in anticipation of advanced party media strategies and the influence of networks such as Twitter and Facebook.

While the refinement of some party’s PR can be questioned, Twitter remains an influential tool, and could be decisive in some swing constituencies.

Tracking tweets with positive or neutral sentiment, Brandwatch have compiled location-based data to find who is winning the twitter war in undecided areas after the Question Time leader’s special.

South Thanet:

UKIP’s large lead was reduced from 58 per cent of the voice share to 41 per cent after leader’s special, with Nigel Farage’s absence probably a factor. The UKIP leader, and candidate for the constituency, has declared all-out war with the BBC over what he sees as biased coverage. Labour also saw a bump in the constituency’s voice share.

Croydon Central:

Liberal Democrats ate away at UKIP’s voice share in the South London constituency following the leader’s special, while the Conservatives and Labour share remained largely unchanged. Conservative MP Gavin Barwell is hoping to retain the seat, despite Labour's ten point lead in tweets with candidate Sarah Jones.

Plymouth Moor View:

Labour’s lead seems largely unchanged in the Westcountry constituency, and if anything UKIP’s voice share picked up, despite an absence of Nigel Farage, moving from 10 per cent to 19 per cent. Labour MP Allison Seabeck is hoping to defend her seat from Conservative challenger Johnny Mercer.

In pictures: Experts' predictions for the General Election - 26/04/15

Show all 10

1/10In pictures: Experts' predictions for the General Election - 26/04/15

In pictures: Experts' predictions for the General Election - 26/04/15

Andrew Hawkins (ComRes)

“This is an election of wild promises and political cross-dressing; so no differentiation, no breakthrough, no majority. The most likely outcome is Ed Miliband in No 10 because only he will be in a position to work with enough parties (that is, the SNP) to form a workable government.”

Andrew Hawkins

In pictures: Experts' predictions for the General Election - 26/04/15

Joe Twyman (YouGov)

“As each day passes and the Conservatives fail to increase their vote share, the likelihood of Ed Miliband becoming PM (albeit still with a minority) grows. That’s due to the continued performance of the SNP in Scotland and former Lib Dem voters propping up Labour in England.”

In pictures: Experts' predictions for the General Election - 26/04/15

Ben Page (Ipsos MORI)

“A better week for Ed Miliband than for David Cameron – personal ratings improving, and the betting markets moved in his favour. The poll numbers have him ahead by a whisker which, combined with the electoral maths, makes him more likely to be able to form some kind of government on the raw numbers right now. However, Cameron will be hoping for a 1992 moment when ultimately voters can’t quite bring themselves to try someone else – and 38 per cent of voters still say they may change their mind.”

In pictures: Experts' predictions for the General Election - 26/04/15

Rick Nye (Populus)

“The Populus/Hanover Predictor has Ed Miliband ending up as Prime Minister in more than five out of six simulations we run.”

In pictures: Experts' predictions for the General Election - 26/04/15

Nick Moon (GfK)

“Tories most seats, SNP 45 or more, Ukip fewer than five: minority Labour government.”

In pictures: Experts' predictions for the General Election - 26/04/15

Damian Lyons Lowe (Survation)

“Ukip’s vote share is prone to be squeezed, benefiting the Conservatives, while the SNP’s onslaught on Labour continues. Based on three UK/Scotland polls, I am upgrading the Conservatives and the SNP, and downgrading Labour. Both the Lib Dems on 30 seats and Ukip on 5 to 10 remain unchanged.”

In pictures: Experts' predictions for the General Election - 26/04/15

Michelle Harrison (TNS)

“Still no change, but Nicola Sturgeon goes from strength to strength in Scotland. For me, who the biggest party is will hinge on the crucial marginals. But what ultimately wins – safety first, for the Tories, or Labour’s ‘get out the vote’ ground war?”

In pictures: Experts' predictions for the General Election - 26/04/15

James Endersby (Opinium Research)

“Our poll today shows a one-point Tory lead, statistically a tie. It’s going to be incredibly tight. Labour and the Tories would do well to be negotiating with the smaller parties behind the scenes. In the likely event of a hung parliament, we’ve been testing various combinations of coalition. Labour teaming up with the Lib Dems would be more popular than with the SNP, which in turn would be more popular than a Tory/UKIP scenario.”

In pictures: Experts' predictions for the General Election - 26/04/15

Martin Boon (ICM)

“Not much going on really, and no reason to change my mind. Tories by a couple of points.

In pictures: Experts' predictions for the General Election - 26/04/15

Lord Ashcroft (Lord Ashcroft Polls)

He refuses to make predictions. “My polls are snapshots, not predictions.”

Rex

Warwick and Leamington:

Conservatives have lost a first place position on Twitter as Labour have moved from a seven point loss to an 11 point lead. The Conservatives won the seat last election by a margin of seven per cent.

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