Stay up to date with notifications from The Independent

Notifications can be managed in browser preferences.

General Election 2015: How a tactical voting campaign could thwart Alex Salmond

Many Labour and Tory voters in Gordon say they will vote Lib Dem

Sunday 19 April 2015 13:07 BST

Mr Salmond is currently favourite for the Gordon seat (PA)

Alex Salmond faces a backlash in his battle to win Gordon, with Labour and Conservative supporters urged to vote Liberal Democrat to keep Scotland’s former first minister out of the House of Commons.

Gordon was held by Sir Malcolm Bruce, the Lib Dems’ deputy leader, since 1983, but he has stepped down to be replaced by journalist Christine Jardine. Mr Salmond is currently favourite for the seat, but Lib Dem strategists believe it will be a close fight, with Labour and Tory voters increasingly saying they will vote for Ms Jardine.

A campaign group, United Against Separation (UAS), has been asking voters across Scotland to ignore their loyalties and instead vote for whichever party stands the best chance of beating the SNP in each seat.

In pictures: Experts' predictions for the General Election - 19/04/15

Show all 10

1/10In pictures: Experts' predictions for the General Election - 19/04/15

In pictures: Experts' predictions for the General Election - 19/04/15

Andrew Hawkins (ComRes)

“I am thinking Labour will be the largest party. Cameron is making no headway and refusing the debate was a misjudgement. Even if the Conservatives are the largest party I cannot see how they can win enough seats to form a viable alternative to an Ed-led, three-way arrangement with the Lib Dems and SNP.”

Andrew Hawkins

In pictures: Experts' predictions for the General Election - 19/04/15

Joe Twyman (YouGov)

“Ed Miliband’s performance at the challengers’ debate could boost his ratings, and may result in a short-term boost for his party’s fortune, but I think it unlikely to change the overall picture longer term.”

In pictures: Experts' predictions for the General Election - 19/04/15

Ben Page (Ipsos MORI)

“Labour had the better week, and Ed Miliband is improving his personal ratings from a low base, but neither of the two main parties is getting a majority in these numbers.”

In pictures: Experts' predictions for the General Election - 19/04/15

Rick Nye (Populus)

“Still no change.”

In pictures: Experts' predictions for the General Election - 19/04/15

Nick Moon (GfK)

“I agree with Rick [Nye, who said “no change” last week]. Most campaigns don’t really see much change.”

In pictures: Experts' predictions for the General Election - 19/04/15

Damian Lyons Lowe (Survation)

“On the balance of Thursday’s debate – I’m staying unchanged.”

In pictures: Experts' predictions for the General Election - 19/04/15

Michelle Harrison (TNS)

“The Conservatives and Labour have barely moved. The most notable event? The SNP hitting 52 per cent on the latest TNS Scotland poll. A key theme for this election is the impact of ‘edge’ politics on the centre.”

In pictures: Experts' predictions for the General Election - 19/04/15

James Endersby (Opinium Research)

“Our poll gives the Tories a four-point lead. It was carried out either side of Thursday’s TV debate so we haven’t seen the expected dent in Tory fortunes yet. The pattern we’ve seen for a while now appears to be unaffected by week-to-week events. If our figures hold fast, the Lib Dems would still be kingmakers as Tories plus DUP wouldn’t equal 326 seats, but neither would SNP plus Labour. Both sides would need the Lib Dems to eke out a majority.”

In pictures: Experts' predictions for the General Election - 19/04/15

Martin Boon (ICM)

“We caused something of a kerfuffle this week with a Tory six-pointer. Looking back over the last four campaigns, on each occasion the incumbent government just failed to reach the vote share achieved on our first campaign poll. As I’m reaching for an answer, on that basis alone I’ll go for 36 per cent for the Tories and 34 per cent for Labour.”

In pictures: Experts' predictions for the General Election - 19/04/15

Lord Ashcroft (Lord Ashcroft Polls)

He refuses to make predictions. “My polls are snapshots, not predictions.”

Rex

The group has argued that “tactical voting is a must in Gordon” and has told voters that Ms Jardine is the “best placed pro-UK candidate” to defeat Mr Salmond. A UAS campaign leaflet features a cartoon of Ms Jardine sending Mr Salmond flying after drop-kicking him on the bottom.

A Lib Dem minister said: “Alex Salmond makes the argument for tactical voting just by being Alex Salmond. I think we will win it. The campaign is going well. It’s close and could go either way.”

The Lib Dems have been widely tipped to lose nearly all of their 11 seats north of the border. But Scottish Lib Dems were buoyed last week after a Survation poll carried out for the party found that consumer affairs minister Jo Swinson is on course to retain East Dunbartonshire.

The Independent has got together with May2015.com to produce a poll of polls that produces the most up-to-date data in as close to real time as is possible.

Click the buttons below to explore how the main parties' fortunes have changed:

All data, polls and graphics are courtesy of May2015.com. Click through for daily analysis, in-depth features and all the data you need. (All historical data used is provided by UK Polling Report)

Join our commenting forum

Join thought-provoking conversations, follow other Independent readers and see their replies