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SNP minister boasts of 'huge influence' over government in hung parliament

Humza Yousaf says the party would have a 'hell of a lot' of power

Wednesday 06 May 2015 12:49 BST

SNP leader Nicola Sturgeon launches the Scottish National Party manifesto at the Edinburgh International Climbing Arena (Getty Images)

The SNP would have a “huge amount of influence” over governments formed after a hung parliament, one of the party’s ministers has said.

Humza Yousaf, the Scottish Government’s minister for External Affairs, told BBC News that “every poll” showed the SNP set to have influence over “every single piece of legislation”.

“You have a hell of a lot of influence issue by issue, day by day on every single piece of legislation that has to be passed in the house,” he said.

“And every poll indicates that, of course, we know neither Labour nor the Conservatives are going to have a majority.

“If we have a bloc of SNP MPs and we are the third largest party, then actually we would have a huge amount of influence

David Cameron has accused Labour leader Ed Miliband of a “con trick” over the SNP’s role in a future government, claiming the opposition leader is deliberately misleading voters on the issue.

In pictures: Experts' predictions for the General Election - 03/05/15

Show all 10

1/10In pictures: Experts' predictions for the General Election - 03/05/15

In pictures: Experts' predictions for the General Election - 03/05/15

Andrew Hawkins (ComRes)

“The sclerotic, negative and risk-averse campaigns from the two main parties make it hard to see how much can alter. So, my prediction is the same – Tories get most votes, but Labour better placed to form a government. Then a long spell of political and perhaps constitutional chaos.”

Andrew Hawkins

In pictures: Experts' predictions for the General Election - 03/05/15

Joe Twyman (YouGov)

“‘The world is changed, I feel it in the water, I feel it in the earth. I smell it in the air.’ So begins the film version of Lord of the Rings. – which is, of course, the famous tale of an epic journey culminating in the final battle between good and evil. The world of British politics has certainly changed. “With a few days still to go I expect that more change could still occur, but it is likely to be minor and the national level and more concentrated on the ground in the key marginal constituencies where the Hold Your Nose or Cut It Off to Spite Your Face™ message pushes home. I expect the Conservatives to be the beneficiaries, but it will not be anything like enough to make a difference to the overall result.”

In pictures: Experts' predictions for the General Election - 03/05/15

Ben Page (Ipsos MORI)

“As the only pollster to correctly predict a hung parliament last time – and then foolishly change my prediction when I saw ALL the others were saying a Conservative majority – I am going to say hung parliament again. With more Conservative than Labour seats. The SNP won’t wipe out the Labour Party completely in Scotland but will get them down to single figures. The Lib Dems will out perform their poll numbers and should get circa 26 seats – or more. Ukip will be delighted with four seats at most, probably fewer.”

In pictures: Experts' predictions for the General Election - 03/05/15

Rick Nye (Populus)

“Tories largest party, comfortably.”

In pictures: Experts' predictions for the General Election - 03/05/15

Nick Moon (GfK)

“SNP now 50, Ukip 2; Tories to be largest party in votes and seats, but still a Labour minority government.”

In pictures: Experts' predictions for the General Election - 03/05/15

Damian Lyons Lowe (Survation)

“Conservatives – I’m upgrading my seats prediction to 270-280 from 260-280. Labour – downgrading again to 265-275, based on the SNPs’ continued surge and Conservatives doing better in our seat-voting question as the election draws near and views are localised: SNP 45; Lib Dems 30; Ukip 6; Green 1; Respect 1. Ed Miliband will be the next prime minister.”

In pictures: Experts' predictions for the General Election - 03/05/15

Michelle Harrison (TNS)

“We enter the last few days of this campaign pretty much where we started. This election represents what happens when a country is not confident about its economic future, unsure of its place in the world, and fed up with the state of its politics. “The political stalemate at the centre, and the fragmentation of the traditional party system, has left us with a set of polls incapable of telling what will ultimately happen, when there are so many potential scenarios. What we can feel confident about though is that Thursday will be a seismic night for politics in Scotland. When the votes are counted, we expect the Tories to be the largest party, but that Labour should still have the greatest chance of forming a government. But how do we measure the advantage for the Conservatives of already being in No 10 in the days after the general election? The real drama will start on Friday.”

In pictures: Experts' predictions for the General Election - 03/05/15

James Endersby (Opinium Research)

“We saw some movement to the Tories, but the two big parties are back to being neck and neck with the Conservatives a hair’s breadth ahead. How this translates into seats or a coalition is unclear but based on our numbers we’d put the Conservatives ahead of Labour on vote share but the two parties within 10 seats of each other in the new House of Commons. The maths here gives Ed Miliband more options than David Cameron, so it might be sensible for voters to look up Ramsay MacDonald when trying to make sense of the result!”

In pictures: Experts' predictions for the General Election - 03/05/15

Martin Boon (ICM)

“The Tories appear to have developed a little momentum, which may or may not make any difference. I sense the now traditional herding of pollsters has begun, and the polls will coalesce around a Tory lead of between two and six points. I’ll guess at 36 per cent for the Tories and 32 per cent for Labour. The fight for third place could go either way. Beyond that I just don’t know what will happen and defer to the academics and gamblers when it comes to seat projections, and indeed when it comes to who on earth is going to form our next government. I’d like to apologise to Independent on Sunday readers for fence-sitting, but as I’ve said repeatedly of late: How should I know? I’m only a pollster.”

In pictures: Experts' predictions for the General Election - 03/05/15

Lord Ashcroft (Lord Ashcroft Polls)

He refuses to make predictions. “My polls are snapshots, not predictions.”

Rex

“Basically what he’s doing is a con trick. You can see what he’s doing: ‘Look at this strong language about no deals and no pacts, and ignore the fact that I can only become prime minister off the back of SNP votes',” Mr Cameron told the Press Association.

Labour leader Ed Miliband has ruled out doing any “deals” with the SNP in the event of a hung parliament.

A minority Labour government would however have to rely on support from the nationalists if polls showing them taking all of Scotland’s seats came to fruition.

Polls suggest the SNP is on course to take practically every seat in Scotland on Thursday.

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