UK general election: 100 seats that will decide the result

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Oliver Wright@oliver_wright
Monday 26 January 2015 20:02
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The general election is just 100 days away and promises to be the least predictable contest in a generation. These are the the main 100 seats that will most shape the final result.

1 Hampstead and Kilburn (LAB/CON 0.1%)

Labour’s most marginal seat. Glenda Jackson standing down. Could be hit by mansion tax plans.

2 North Warwickshire (CON/LAB 0.1%)

The Tories’ most marginal seat. Current MP standing down and a key Labour target.

3 Camborne and Redruth (CON/LD 0.2%)

Held by Tories but with a majority of 66 over Lib Dems. Rare Lib Dem target.

4 Bolton West (LAB/CON 0.2%)

Held by Labour over Tories but both parties vote share vulnerable to Ukip.

5 Thurrock (CON/LAB/Ukip 0.2%)

Sitting Tory MP Jackie Doyle-Price at risk from strong Ukip challenge.

6 Oldham East and Saddleworth (LAB/LD 0.2%)

Held by Labour in 2011 by-election. Lib Dems in second place.

7 Hendon (CON/LAB 0.2%)

Matthew Offord at risk from strong Labour challenge in London but could be helped by the mansion tax.

8 Solihull (LD/CON 0.3%)

Lib Dems facing strong Tory challenge in this wealthy Midlands seat.

9 Oxford West and Abingdon (CON/LD 0.3%)

Nicola Blackwood has a 176 majority over Lib Dems. Very bad for the Tories if they don’t hold on.

10 Ashfield (LAB/LD 0.4%)

Gloria De Piero only has a 192 majority for Labour but should hold on. Key factor will be the Ukip vote.

11 Southampton (LAB/CON 0.4%)

Labour’s John Denham standing down. Key Tory target and a test of how Labour is doing in the South.

12 Cardiff North (CON/LAB 0.4%)

Rare Welsh Tory seat but the party is expected to lose to Labour this time.

13 Sherwood (CON/LAB 0.4%)

Currently Tory but Labour must win if it is to be the largest party in 2015.

14 Mid Dorset and North Poole (LD/CON 0.6%)

Lib Dem seat but sitting MP standing down. Tories must win – but Ukip could denude their vote.

15 Norwich South (LD/LAB/Green 0.7%)

Lib Dems unseated Charles Clarke here in 2010 – but likely to lose votes to the Greens this time. Expect a Labour gain.

16 Edinburgh South (LAB/LD 0.7%)

Marginal Lab/Lib Dem seat in 2010 but likely to be safer for Labour this time round.

17 Broxtowe (CON/LAB 0.7%)

Labour target but Tory MP Anna Soubry well known and well liked so could hold on.

18 Stockton South (CON/LAB 0.7%)

Tory James Wharton has a majority of 332 over Labour. But the Ukip vote makes the result too hard to call.

19 Lancaster and Fleetwood (CON/LAB 0.8%)

Can the Tories hold on in the North? Key Labour target and a seat they must take to win in May.

20 Bradford East (LD/LAB 0.9%)

Lib Dems took this seat from Labour in 2010 – likely to revert back this time round.

21 Truro and Falmouth (CON/LD 0.9%)

Tories must hold seat in the South West. Lib Dem challenger – but Ukip vote could be unpredictable.

22 Amber Valley (CON/LAB 1.2%)

Tories took from Labour in 2010 with a majority of 536. Labour needs to re-take.

23 Derby North (LAB/CON 613 1.4%)

Used to be safe Labour but Tories came close in 2010. Very bad news for Miliband if his party can’t hold on here.

24 Wells (LD/CON 1.4%)

Lib Dem MP Tessa Munt has a strong personal vote and increased her majority in 2010. Could hold off a Tory challenge.

25 Waveney (CON/LAB 1.5%)

Waveney has always been a bellwether seat swinging in line with the mood of the nation. One to watch.

26 Wolverhampton South West (CON/LAB 1.7%)

Key Midlands battle ground seat. Tories took in 2010 but big Labour target this time round

27 Kingston upon Hull (LAB/LD 1.9%)

Labour should be safe here. But the strength of the working class Ukip vote is an unknown factor.

28 Rochdale (LAB/LD 1.9%)

Used to be a Lib Dem stronghold but after Cyril Smith revelations Simon Danczuk should hold on easily.

29 Carlisle (CON/LAB 2.0%)

Was Labour from 1964 to 2010 and the party is confident of winning it back this time. Disastrous if they fail.

30 Morecambe and Lunesdale (CON/LAB 2.0%)

Typical swing Northern seat. Will be a test of whether George Osborne’s Northern Powerhouse rhetoric has cut through.

31 Great Grimsby (LAB/CON/Ukip 2.2%)

Austin Mitchell standing down and Ukip fancies its chances of taking the seat from Labour. But Tories also strong here in 2010.

32 Stroud (CON/LAB 2.2%)

Another long time Tory/Labour marginal. A test of both parties in middle England.

33 Weaver Vale (CON/LAB 2.3%)

North West seat that used to be Labour but was won by the Tories in 2010.

34 Lincoln (CON/LAB 2.3%)

Has swung with the country since 1979. Both Tories and Labour will pour resources here in to win.

35 Brighton Pavilion (Green/LAB/CON 2.4%)

Caroline Lucas is fighting a three way marginal. Should benefit from national swing to the Greens but the council is unpopular.

36 Watford (CON/LD 2.6%)

A rare Lib Dem target seat. The town’s popular mayor Dorothy Thornhill is standing and strategists believe she can win. A rare three-way marginal

37 St Austell and Newquay LD CON 1,312 2.8%

Another key seat the Lib Dems need to hold if they are to have any hope of being in Government after May.

38 Warrington South (CON/LAB 2.8%)

The Tories David Mowat is vulnerable in this seat especially if Ukip gets more than the 1,600 votes it got in 2010.

39 Dewsbury (CON LAB 2.8%)

Sayeeda Warsi failed to take Dewsbury for the Tories in 2005 but Simon Reevell won in 2010. Labour hope to win it back.

40 Brent Central (LD/LAB 3.0%)

Sarah Teather has held this seat since a by-election in 2003 but is standing down. Lib Dems expect to lose to Labour.

41 Bedford (CON/LAB 3.0%)

A swing South Eastern seat which Labour needs to take if Ed Miliband is going be in Downing Street in May.

42 Somerton and Frome (LD/CON 3.0%)

Lib Dem MP David Heath is standing down at this election and the party could be vulnerable to a Tory challenge.

43 Birmingham Edgbaston (LAB/CON 3.1%)

Should be Tories top target in the Midlands but Gisela Stuart is popular locally and there is no real campaign against her.

44 Brighton Kemptown (CON/LAB 3.1%)

Another test of whether Ed Miliband cuts through to voters in the more prosperous parts of the South.

45 Sutton and Cheam (LD/CON 3.3%)

Former Lib Dem minister Paul Burstow could lose this seat to the Tories. Hospital provision is a big issue locally.

46 Pudsey CON LAB 1,659 3.4%

The Labour vote collapsed here in 2010 and Stuart Andrew could be vulnerable in this Yorkshire seat.

47 Plymouth Moor View LAB/Ukip 3.8%)

Labour is worried about losing this seat to Ukip. The Tories came second in 2010 but its vote may coalesce around Ukip.

48 Enfield North (CON/LAB 3.8%)

This is a re-run of 2010 between Nick de Bois and Labour’s Joan Ryan in this North London seat. Will be close.

49 Hastings and Rye (CON LAB 4.0%)

Without Ukip in the mix Amber Rudd should be safe here. But Farage’s party could allow Labour through the middle.

50 Ipswich (CON/LAB 4.4%)

If the Tories start losing seats like Ipswich then the party is in trouble. But Ben Gummer is not that safe here.

51 Dundee East (SNP/LAB 4.5%)

Once Labour would have hoped to take this seat off the SNP. But that now looks forlorn hope.

52 East Dunbartonshire (LD/LAB 4.6%)

Jo Swinson is a potential next leader of the Lib Dems. But she faces a real threat to her seat from both Labour.

53 Chippenham (LD/CON 4.7%)

A key test for the Lib Dems. If seats like this start falling to the Tories Nick Clegg’s party is in trouble.

54 Bury North (CON/LAB 5.0%)

Eurosceptic David Nuttall should be safe here. And if he’s not the Tories will have had a disastrous night in the North.

55 Blackpool North and Cleveleys (CON/LAB 5.3%)

Blackpool doesn’t seem like a natural Tory seat but the party won here in 2010. Labour desperate to reverse that.

56 Westminster North (LAB/CON 5.4%)

This was a top Tory target in 2010 but failed to take the seat from Karen Buck. They’ll be hoping for better luck this time.

57 Southampton Test (LAB/CON 5.5%)

This is less marginal than John Denham’s old seat but Labour are still concerned by the Ukip factor here.

58 Arfon (PC/LAB 5.6%)

Labour is targeting this seat from Plaid Cymru. Will be a test of whether the new inclusive TV debates help the nationalists.

59 Croydon Central (CON/LAB 5.8%)

A test of how strong Labour’s activist base is in the London suburbs. A seat they really ought to win.

60 Birmingham Northfield (LAB/ 6.7%)

Although less marginal than Edgbaston the Conservatives are throwing resources into this Birmingham seat and have a strong candidate.

61 Taunton Deane (LD/CON 6.9%)

Lib Dem Jeremy Browne was a popular local MP but has now decided to stand down. Good chance the Tories will take.

62 Richmond Park (CON/LD 6.9%)

Zac Goldsmith’s narrowish majority in part explains his vehement opposition to a third runway at Heathrow.

63 Berwick-upon-Tweed (LD/CON 7.0%)

Sir Alan Beith is stepping down and the Tories hope to capitalise on this to take the border seat.

64 Cannock Chase (CON/LAB 7.0%)

The Tory MP Aidan Burley has been forced to step aside at the election after a string of controversies. Labour should capitalise.

65 Loughborough (CON/LAB 7.1%)

Education Secretary Nicky Morgan’s seat. If Labour can wrest this from the Tories it would be a real blow to David Cameron.

66 Ynys Môn (LAB/PC 7.1%)

This is Plaid Cymru’s best chance to take a seat of Labour in Wales. Might be a TV debate dividend.

67 Eastleigh (LD/CON/Ukip 7.2%)

The Lib Dems famously held onto this seat following the jailing of Chris Huhne. Should hold on again in 2015 but will be close.

68 Birmingham Yardley (LD/LAB 7.3%)

A great test of the incumbency factor. On a uniform swing the Lib Dems should lose to Labour. But John Hemming is popular and may hang on.

69 Rochester and Strood (Ukip/Con 7.3%)

Former Tory Mark Reckless won this seat for Ukip in a by-election but could lose in 2015 if the Labour vote holds up.

70 Hammersmith (LAB/CON 7.5%)

Andy Slaughter kept this seat against a strong Tory challenge in 2010. If he loses in 2015 it will be a bad night for Milband.

71 Argyll and Bute (LD/CON/SNP/LAB 7.6%)

This will be a four way marginal in 2015 and will be a fascinating test of the strength of the SNP.

72 West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine (LD/CON/SNP 8.2%)

Although now a Lib Dem seat with the Tories in second both Coalition parties could be punished by the SNP in May.

73 Norwich North (CON/LAB 9.2%)

Labour will be targeting Chloe Smith’s seat which she won in a 2009 by-election. Will be a close fight.

74 Brecon and Radnorshire (LD/CON 9.6%)

The Tories top target seat in Wales. Currently held by the Lib Dems it will be a close call on the night.

75 Cleethorpes (CON/LAB 9.6%)

This seaside town has been Labour in the past and could be Labour again. Ukip could be a factor here.

76 Dudley South (CON/LAB/Ukip 10.1 per cent)

The Tory MP Chris Kelly is standing down. Ukip could come through the middle to win.

77 Dover (CON/LAB 10.5%)

Charlie Elphicke could be vulnerable to a Ukip surge in Dover which could let Labour into seat that would otherwise be safe.

78 Harlow (CON/LAB 11.2%)

Robert Halfon is a very popular MP and should help keep this corner of Essex blue. Bad news for Cameron if not.

79 Ilford North (CON/LAB 11.5%)

Another bellwether seat that the Tories need to hold to win an overall majority.

80 Cambridge (LD/CON 13.5%)

The Greens could do well here if they can take much of Lib Dem Julian Huppert’s vote.

81 Gordon (LD/SNP 13.8%)

Lib Dem Malcolm Bruce is standing down and is an easy SNP target seat. Alex Salmond standing here.

82 South Thanet (CON/Ukip 16.6%)

Nigel Farage is standing in this Kent seat and it is top of the Ukip targets in 2015. One to watch.

83 Enfield Southgate (CON/LAB 17.2%)

The seat which Michael Portillo lost in 1997. Expect the Tories to hold on barring disaster.

84 Holborn and St Pancras (LAB/LD 18.2%)

Frank Dobson’s old seat. Green party leader Natalie Bennett is standing here and could be closer than many think.

85 Gillingham and Rainham (CON/LAB/Ukip 18.6%)

A Tory/Labour marginal where Ukip could also do well. Will be an interesting seat to watch.

86 Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch and Strathspey (LD/LAB 18.6%)

Danny Alexander’s seat. The Lib Dems will be in real trouble if they lose this.

87 Bermondsey and Old Southwark (LD/LAB 19.1%)

Simon Hughes has a very strong personal vote and had held the seat through thick and thin since 1983. But will be a fight.

88 Bristol West (LD/LAB/Green 20.5%)

Currently Lib Dem but one of the Green’s target seat and a useful indicator for how well they do.

89 Corby (LAB/CON 21%)

The Tories lost this seat in a by-election when Louise Mensche stood down. The Tories will try and win it back.

90 Aberdeen North (LAB/SNP 22.2%)

If the SNP do not take this seat from Labour then it is doing less well than predicted in Scotland.

91 Rotherham (LAB/Ukip 25%)

Labour held this seat in 2012 but Ukip came second. Since then there has been the sex abuse scandal which will help Ukip.

92 Bath (LD/CON 25.2%)

Don Foster is standing down so would be a useful seat for the Tories to take but would need a big collapse in Lib Dem vote.

93 Basingstoke (CON/LD) 26.0%

Maria Miller’s seat. Likely to be a Tory hold but she could be punished for the expenses scandal.

94 Doncaster North (LAB/CON 26.3%)

Ed Miliband’s seat. Totally safe Labour but will none-the-less be interesting to see how well Ukip – who held their last conference in the town - does here.

95 Sheffield Hallam (LD/CON/Lab) 29.9%

Labour has made a big deal about campaigning in Nick Clegg’s seat. Astounding if they win – but not totally impossible.

96 Bradford West (Respect/Lab 30.9)

George Galloway won this seat in a 2012 by-election. Labour still not picked its candidate for 2015. Notoriously hard to predict.

97 Glasgow Central LAB/SNP 34.5%

If the SNP take seats like this in Labour’s Glaswegian heartland it spells real problem for the party in Scotland and nationally.

98 Glasgow East (LAB/SNP 36.8%)

Another SNP target despite the huge Labour majority. Will force the party to put more money into Scotland.

99 Beaconsfield (CON/LD 41.5%)

The Tories safest seat held by Dominic Grieve. Might even increase his majority against the Lib Dems.

100 Bootle (LAB/LD 51.3%)

Labour’s safest seat. Always worth looking for to see how the core vote holds up.

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