Opposition take lead in Zimbabwe poll

The opposition leader, Morgan Tsvangirai, could win Zimbabwe's presidential elections next month against the beleaguered President, Robert Mugabe, an opinion poll published yesterday suggests.

The poll was conducted by the Mass Public Opinion Institute run by Masipula Sithole, a political science professor at the University of Zimbabwe.

Out of the 1,693 respondents polled, 19.8 per cent said they would vote for Mr Tsvangirai while 11.3 per cent favoured Mr Mugabe and 59.7 per cent refused to disclose their choice, saying they wanted to keep their vote secret. The remaining 9.2 per cent either said they had not made up their minds or were not interested in participating in the poll.

Professor Sithole defended his institute's poll in an interview with The Independent yesterday despite the majority of those polled having declined to express openly their choice of candidate.

He said opinion polls were reflections of voter sentiment and could only be measured on the basis of those who were willing to express themselves. He said the poll was based on a representative sample of rural and urban voters.

Mr Tsvangirai tends to draw his support from urban dwellers while Mr Mugabe thrives on the support of rural peasants. Mr Sithole said the most important issue for the Zimbabwean voter was the economic crisis gripping the country, the signs of which include record inflation at 117 per cent, massive joblessness and empty grocery shelves.

Eighty per cent of Zimbabwe's 12.5 million people live below the poverty line, according to aid agencies.

Mr Sithole said some of the researchers for his poll had been beaten up and had their questionnaires seized by ruling party militants. Two other polls have suggested Mr Tsvangirai would defeat President Mugabe in a free and fair election.

The poll was published as more countries moved to isolate Mr Mugabe. The United States said it was preparing to follow the European Union in imposing focused sanctions. The EU froze the assets of President Mugabe and 19 officials on Monday and banned them from travelling to Europe after Mr Mugabe expelled Pierre Schori, the head of the EU election observers. The EU has since withdrawn its 26 observers.