Paul Ryan: Republicans hoping consensus candidate for Speaker role can assuage right-wing rebellion

The creators of the chaos, who made Mr Boehner’s job impossible and convinced Mr McCarthy he would fare no better, are the 40-odd members of the Freedom Caucus

Paul Ryan, congressman for Wisconsin, will declare his intention to stand for Speaker, or not, on Wednesday (AP)

Three weeks after House speaker John Boehner announced his intention to resign, a coalition of moderate and establishment Republicans will discover on Wednesday whether their best remaining hope to replace him is willing to run.

Paul Ryan, a powerful congressman from Wisconsin, is being touted by mainstream supporters for the position in Congress that would put him second in line for the presidency. But to do so he needs to first make peace with the party’s rebellious right wing.

The ruling party, which holds a majority in both chambers, has been in crisis since Mr Boehner’s shock announcement. Then his anointed successor, Kevin McCarthy of California, abruptly dropped his own bid to replace him just a few days later.

Attempts to find another credible consensus candidate – specifically one with any chance of assuaging a rebellious right wing – have since foundered.

The creators of the chaos, who made Mr Boehner’s job impossible and convinced Mr McCarthy he would fare no better, are the 40-odd members of the Freedom Caucus, most of whom were elected to Congress in the wake of the financial crisis by Tea Party voters demanding an end to business as usual and an evisceration of the old guard in Washington – establishment Republicans included.

Only Paul Ryan may now have enough respect to have any realistic chance of quelling the infighting and returning discipline

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Mr Ryan, who ran on Mitt Romney’s presidential ticket in 2012, may alone now have enough respect to have any realistic chance of quelling the infighting and returning discipline to the party. Having indicated first he had no interest in succeeding Mr Boehner, allies say he has reconsidered his position during a week-long recess with his family in Wisconsin.

Mr Ryan will first share his decision with colleagues behind closed doors on Tuesday, and, if it’s a “yes” to running for speaker, thereafter meet with members of the Freedom Caucus. But he will not negotiate with them on how he would lead, sources close to him said, but will rather assert that his conservative credentials speak for themselves.

Moderates are exasperated that such a relatively small band has taken the party hostage to its demands, deepening the risk of the Republicans falling apart. The spectacle of a party unable to govern itself – let alone the country – could also damage the Republicans’ hopes of retaking the White House next year.

But the Freedom Caucus continues to flex its muscles. It has drawn up a 10-point list of demands for changes to House rules to give it greater sway in setting the party’s future agenda. Were Mr Ryan to refuse to sign up to that, any bid by him for the speakership would quickly be kyboshed; like it or not, he would need the backing of the Caucus to reach the 218 votes needed to be elected.

One option could be for him to seek votes from Democrats. Another would be for Mr Boehner simply to stay on, beyond 1 November. Either outcome would only stoke conservative anger further, however.

For the country, this squabbling could have serious consequences. Very soon, Congress will need to authorise government spending for the rest of this year, and authorise another increase in the federal debt ceiling. The US Treasury has said this must be done by 3 November if the US is to avoid a potentially catastrophic default. But opposing increases to the deficit ceiling – and thus more government spending – is at the core of the conservative wing’s creed.

Members of the Freedom Caucus insist that disruption they are creating will be worth it in the end. “It’s not the party in disarray – the party is starting to heal itself,” Thomas Massie told constituents in Kentucky last week. “What’s in disarray is the establishment.”