Trump 'will win re-election in 2020', three forecast models predict

A combination of economic and incumbency factors point towards good news for the president

Clark Mindock
New York
Tuesday 28 May 2019 16:47
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At least three models are predicting that Donald Trump will win re-election in 2020, a prediction based on combinations of several factors including economic data and incumbent advantage.

The models were compiled for a recent op-ed written by Steven Rattner, who served as a counsel in the Treasury Department during Barack Obama’s presidency.

According to Mr Rattner, one of the most reliable models is one created by Ray Fair, a professor at Yale University who combines incumbency and gross domestic product growth rates to predict who might win the presidency.

That model apparently predicted Mr Obama’s 2008 popular vote win within a fraction of a percentage point, and was able to get within two-tenths of his 2012 vote share.

But, that model has some flaws, and failed to take into account some of the peculiarities presented by Mr Trump himself. That’s to say, the model did not predict that Mr Trump would lose by 3 million votes — a likely sign that the model did not adequately take into account the American public’s apparent personal distaste for Mr Trump.

In addition to Mr Fair’s model, Mark Zandi, the chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, has also analysed several models to find that Mr Trump will likely win in 2020.

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An analysis of the Electoral College by Donald Luskin of Trend Macrolytics has also found Mr Trump has a good chance of winning re-election.

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