America's biggest fears revealed: War in Syria, homegrown terror and nuclear conflict with North Korea top 2016 list

Results show Americans are overwhelmingly worried about events in the Middle East and North Africa

The US Council on Foreign Relations asked 1,000 members of the American public what they feel are the most significant challenges facing the world over the next year to produce a list of 30 separate threats (Center for Preventive Action)

An escalation in the Syrian war, further terror attacks on US soil and nuclear war with North Korea are some of biggest concerns heading into 2016, a new study has revealed.

The Council on Foreign Relations in the US asked 1,000 members of the public what they feel are the most significant challenges facing the world over the next year to produce a list of 30 separate threats.

The results show that Americans are overwhelmingly worried about events in the Middle East and North Africa - with seven of the top 11 issues relating to those regions.

Perhaps unsurprisingly the Syrian war is considered the biggest threat to global security in 2016 – not least because of the involvement of the so-called Islamic State terror group.

In a year that has also seen numerous gun massacres across America, US nationals second biggest fear is further mass casualty terror attacks in the country, followed by cyber-attacks on critical military, government and civilian infrastructure.

Kim Jong-un’s persistent sabre-rattling has clearly got a large chunk of the American population spooked, as the outbreak of nuclear war with North Korea is considered the fourth biggest issue, while refugee crisis-induced political instability within the European Union comes in at number five.

Elsewhere, violence and instability in Libya, Turkey, Afghanistan, Iraq, Pakistan, Lebanon, Yemen and Nigeria, and increased tensions between Israel and Palestine and Russia and Ukraine top Americans’ concerns.

They are far less concerned with direct conflict with Russia, however, seeing the possibility of armed confrontation between China and Japan in the East China Sea and an escalation of criminal violence in Mexico as considerably bigger threats to global security.

Paul Stares, director of the US Centre for Preventive Action , said the survey should be used as a tool to encourage policy makers to concentrate their efforts on the most pressing global issues.

“Anticipating areas of instability and, in particular, plausible contingencies that could harm US interests can help to trigger early action and thus reduce the likelihood of belated and costly responses,” he added.

Mr Stares said the study deliberately avoided economic and environmental factors as the results are too hard to predict, and instead encouraged participants to focus solely on geopolitical concerns.

Those taking part were asked to rank issues from high (meaning likely to trigger US military involvement or threaten strategic resources) to low (meaning limited strategic importance).

TIER I THREATS

• Intensification of civil war in Syria
• Mass casualty terror attack on the US
• Cyber attack on critical infrastructure
• Nuclear war with North Korea
• Political instability in European Union resulting from migrants and refugees
• Violence and instability in Libya
• Increased tensions between Israel and Palestine
• Political violence in Turkey
• Instability in Egypt
• Violence in Afghanistan
• Fracturing of Iraq

TIER II THREATS

• Escalation of crime-related violence in Mexico
• Internal violence and stability in Pakistan
• Violence and instability in Lebanon
• Intensification of conflict in Ukraine
• Instability in Lebanon
• Civil war in Yemen
• Confrontation between US and Iran
• Armed confrontation in East China Sea between China and Japan
• Dispute in South China Sea
• Tensions between Russia and NATO

TIER III THREATS

• India-Pakistan military confrontation
• Political instability in Saudi Arabia
• Violence in Nigeria from Boko Haram
• Escalation of extremism in Russia
• Civil war in South Sudan
• Violence in Central African Republic
• Violence in Myanmar
• Political instability in Democratic Republic of Congo