Allegations of violence and vote-rigging as Azerbaijan's oil-rich dynasty faces polls

The first post-Soviet dynasty is being built in the oil-rich republic of Azerbaijan. The octogenarian leader is attempting to hand power to his son via elections tomorrow which opposition leaders and human rights campaigners have denounced as rigged.

Wherever the eye falls in the capital, Baku, on the Caspian sea, there is some billboard, poster or window display depicting the republic's long-time leader, Geidar Aliyev, 80, and his son Ilham. The propaganda is part of a campaign orchestrated by President Aliyev from his hospital bed, where he has been for five months suffering from heart and kidney disease.

Independent surveys suggest that the poll cannot be fairly won by Ilham Aliyev, a political neophyte who was appointed Prime Minister by his father in August. For a time both Aliyevs were listed as presidential candidates but earlier this month Geidar Aliyev withdrew in favour of his son.

In one way or another, Geidar Aliyev has run the republic for much of the past 35 years, as the republic's Soviet-era KGB chief and Communist Party head. As President of an independent Azerbaijan since 1993, he steered the country away from civil war, forged a truce after a military defeat at the hands of Armenia and signed contracts with Western oil firms to develop reputedly huge petroleum reserves in the Caspian sea. In recent years, Azeris have enjoyed a modest economic boom and grown accustomed to stable - if authoritarian - government.

Agalar Abbasbeylin, chairman of the international relations department at Baku State University, said: "Azerbaijan is one of the few states in the Muslim world that is completely allied to the West, has a secular society and democratic practices. All this is thanks to the strong leadership of Geidar Aliyev."

But many doubt that the father's popularity will rub off on the son, whose reputation as a playboy is widespread. A poll in September by the Baku-based Centre for Political and Economic Research, an independent agency, favoured the leader of the opposition Musavat Party, Isa Gambar.More than a third of respondents (36.3 per cent) said they would vote for him on 15 October while 27.4 per cent favoured Ilham Aliyev.

Opposition leaders allege that the voting will be rigged. "We do not suspect, we know that the authorities are planning to falsify the ballot," Mr Gambar said. "These are anti-constitutional intentions."

Human Rights Watch said yesterday the elections could not be considered free and fair because of widespread abuse and bias towards government candidates. Peter Bouckaert, a spokesman, said: "Too much manipulation, too many arrests and too many beatings of opposition activists have taken place to consider the election process free and fair."

Thirty experts sent by the Organisation for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) to monitor the campaign have documented abuses including police harassment of opposition supporters, hindrance of candidates' rallies and massive use of state media and government resources to promote Ilham. The OSCE observers' interim report said: "Violence persists as police intervene against rallies or tolerate violence against the opposition. Unequal treatment of the opposition persists ... three candidates assert their lives have been threatened."

In a recent report, the Paris-based organisation Reporters Without Borders noted an increase in attacks against independent Azeri journalists trying to cover opposition activities.

The head of Azerbaijan's official Central Electoral Commission, Muzahir Manakhov, says the government "is committed to holding free, fair and transparent elections". Mr Manakhov blamed the opposition for the violence reported by foreign observers. "These incidents occurred because these candidates tried to hold meetings in areas where order couldn't be guaranteed."

A few signs of opposition activity are visible in Baku but, beyond the capital, newspapers and public spaces reflect only the campaign to elect Aliyev junior. At the Lezgin Ahmed public school in the northern town of Qusar, children filed through doors plastered with election posters for Ilham. The school's main lobby was dominated by a large board featuring photos of the Aliyev father and son, accompanied by a long, glorified biography of Geidar Aliyev.

One teacher, Zahid Aleskander, indicated that school staff had no say in the placement of the materials. "Personally I don't think it's fair, as the law orders equal treatment for all candidates," he said. "But we can do nothing about this."

Experts worry that if Ilham is elected, he may not be able to handle Azerbaijan's problems, in particular the simmering conflict with Armenia. The war ended in 1993 with Armenians in control of their ethnic enclave of Nagorno-Karabakh as well as large swaths of surrounding Azeri territory. Nearly 1 million Azeri refugees live in camps.

Ali Hasanov, the Deputy Prime Minister, said: "If Armenia continues to occupy our country, then Azerbaijan has the right to free those territories by any means necessary."

For the past decade, Geidar Aliyev has successfully contained the hawks. Vadim Teperman, an expert on the region at the Institute for International Economic and Political Research, based in Moscow, said: "Aliyev senior had real authority; he could keep the army and security forces under control. But the son is far less experienced."

THE REPUBLIC AT A GLANCE

* Azerbaijan attained independence after the collapse of the former Soviet Union in 1991.

* The name Azerbaijan means "land of fire", thought to stem from the burning surface deposits of oil and gas. The country has seven billion barrels of oil reserves.

* It's eight million inhabitants are mainly ethnic Azeris, who are predominantly Shi'ite Muslims.