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Rumour, counter-rumour and leaks: but is Saddam alive?

Cahal Milmo
Friday 04 April 2003 00:00 BST
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The sources in Baghdad were adamant: Saddam Hussein vanished into a subterranean command centre two days before the war began and refuses to use a telephone for fear of being traced by the CIA. Instead, he communicates to his generals by hand-written notes and videotapes.

Welcome to the latest addition to the jigsaw of reports, rumours, investigations and intelligence leaks that forms the main mystery of the war in Iraq: the whereabouts and well-being of the man whose death or capture is vital to the success of the Anglo-American invasion.

Ever since American cruise missiles and B-2 bombers attempted a precision bombing assassination of the Iraqi leader as the opening shot of the war, the health of President Saddam has become an obsession for the propagandists of Washington, London and Baghdad.

The latest tantalising snippet came yesterday from a pan-Arab news service, al- Bawaba, which quoted "reliable sources" in Baghdad saying that President Saddam was alive but incommunicado in his bunker ­ not unlike another American target, Osama bin Laden. In its report, al- Bawaba said: "Saddam has learnt that Americans analyse the background and even the air clarity of the videos for clues to the location, so he has pre-recorded his most important messages and instructions to the Iraqi people.

"Three different taped recordings for when the Americans are about to enter Baghdad are already waiting. Saddam assumes that if the Americans hear him broadcasting, a guided missile will be quick to arrive."

The whereabouts of the Iraqi leader are apparently known only to his son Qusay, who is in charge of the defence of the capital.

The report added to the vast pile of leaked intelligence data and journalistic inquiry that has been put into the public domain, suggesting that President Saddam is anything from dead or critically injured as a result of the 19 March attack, to living in splendid isolation as a despotic hermit.

According to observers, the resulting confusion is helpful to the Anglo-American cause and something the Pentagon and the Ministry of Defence will be happy to see continue. Chris Wright, head of security issues at the Royal Institute of International Affairs, said: "This is all about how the Americans sold the war in the first place ­ it is much easier to sell a potential conflict if you personalise it and say it is all about Saddam and his regime.

"What they are doing now is letting these stories drip out with the clear intention of creating uncertainty within the regime and the population to inspire revolt. In a sense, it almost doesn't matter whether they are true or not."

Washington, which has doggedly insisted it has reached "no firm conclusion" about the success of the cruise missile assassination attempt, confirmed yesterday that it was taking those doubts directly to Iraqis via Commando Solo ­ the operation to broadcast to the Iraqi population from airborne radio transmitters.

One senior American official said: "From what our intelligence is picking up, some of the Iraqi commanders themselves have not heard from him and we don't know ourselves.

"So you could call this psychological warfare, or you could call it exploitation of the biggest mystery out there."

But with the US Defence Secretary, Donald Rumsfeld, taking up the theme by asking in an interview last week "Where is Saddam Hussein?", the answer to the question grows ever more nebulous.

According to Washington, evidence to suggest that all is not well with the 65-year-old Iraqi leader grew last week when one of his personal bodyguards, who normally never leave his side, accompanied the Defence Minister to a television station. Mr Rumsfeld said: "It may be an indication that Saddam Hussein is not moving around much."

Others point to the fact that the latest attempts to bolster Iraqi morale have consisted of three statements read by the Information Minister, Mohammed Saeed al-Sahaf, and not personal appearances by the leader, or indeed any of his three doubles.

Experts noted that the latest statement, issued yesterday, contained no detailed references to the battle raging around Baghdad. Nuances in the language used by senior Iraqi officials have also been used by Washington to suggest a wobbliness within the regime.

Mohammed Douri, Baghdad's ambassador to the UN, hesitated when asked at the weekend whether President Saddam was still alive before saying: "I think that he is alive, of course, because we saw him several times on TV." In Iraq, an unnamed "senior official", asked the same question by a reporter from the France 2 television station, replied: "Saddam is alive. He is in all our hearts." The response was being interpreted in France as a perhaps accidental hint that he is dead.

Others are less certain. President Saddam's ability to isolate himself from even the closest members of his entourage and vanish at times of war, as he did in 1991 by commandeering ordinary homes, is well known.

Yesterday's reports that he is holed up in a bunker like a Bond villain, issuing handwritten orders indicating which video tape to play to the world, may be more plausible.

Presidential Broadcasts: Iraqi leader faces the world

Saddam Hussein's appearance has been the subject of endless speculation during the conflict. When the Allied attack started on 20 March he appeared pale and puffy-faced during an al-Jazeera television address. An unfamiliar pair of spectacles was perched crookedly on his nose. Efforts to reassure loyal Iraqis that he had survived the so-called decapitation attempt on the first night of the conflict only prompted further doubts about his health.

Four days later he appeared once again, this time on state television. He was heavily made up and neatly groomed, hailing the success of the Iraqi army in frustrating the advance of the American-led forces in the first 100 hours of battle. Yesterday he was back on screen again, this time chairing a meeting of senior ministers. As usual he was dressed in military uniform and appeared businesslike and calm. When the meeting took place was unclear. The room was sparsely furnished and above ground with light showing through the drawn orange curtains. The television announcer said those present included Iraq's Vice-President and ministers of defence and irrigation.

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