Vaughan finds the one-day formula

If England finally win the National Bank Series tomorrow night they might consider holding the celebrations on Baldwin Street. It is only a few minutes by car from the Carisbrook ground in this bonny but rugged southern town, sufficient time to put the bubbly on ice, and as the steepest street in the world it would remind the tourists of what a mountain they had to climb.

One in 1.266, Baldwin's ratio, is approximately the gradient that confronted them only nine days ago when they went 2-0 behind with three to play. The second defeat was not as disturbing as its size and manner – 155 runs the margin and 89 all out the total in 37.2 slipshod overs, and that after the bowlers and fielders had also made a mess of proceedings.

It was difficult then to envisage how Nasser Hussain's team could come back against a New Zealand side that was as confident as it was purposeful. It was certainly impossible to predict that such a shift in fortunes could occur so quickly.

Not that the outcome is any easier to foretell now. The momentum has moved towards England, as the Kiwis' captain, Stephen Fleming, observed after the fourth match on Saturday evening that levelled the series at 2-2. England won by 33 runs after New Zealand were asked to chase 223 to overtake England's 193 for 6 in a rain-affected match decided by the Duckworth-Lewis method. Yet, given the extravagant movements hitherto in form and results, another sudden twist is not only in the question but also probable.

Presumably, England would like to retain the same team for what is now being billed as the final, but they must wait for the results of a scan to determine the extent of Michael Vaughan's shoulder injury. His fitness has suddenly assumed a significance out of all proportion to his initial contributions on this one-day trek through the Subcontinent and the Antipodes.

After being called up unexpectedly on the morning of the fourth match because of his magnificent form in the nets, the Yorkshireman played his best one-day innings for England. He had missed the first three games after playing all six in India – given a rest, said Hussain unconvincingly – and proffered a bravura performance in Auckland.

Apart, perhaps, from the small matter of some breathtaking strokeplay by one Sachin Tendulkar and his apprentice, Virender Sehwag, in Kanpur, it was the most proficient and attractive batting to be seen in these winter limited overs tourneys.

Vaughan went after the bowling from the beginning and was in composed command. There was a sheen of authority and beauty about his batting that would have made anybody watching wonder how England could ever leave him out. Fleming mused on much the same thing.

But international life has never been straightforward for Vaughan and in New Zealand's innings he went sprawling on his right shoulder. The joint popped out and popped in again. The worry is that the dislocation to his career will last slightly longer than that to his shoulder.

He has already been prevented from coming to full bloom by a succession of injuries, mostly involving calves and knees. The shoulder reminded us that he has not yet run out of bodily parts. "Maybe I'm not the luckiest of cricketers," he said yesterday, his arm in a sling. "I can assure you I don't do these things on purpose. I don't know how bad this is yet. I'm desperate to play in what is the final but I don't think it will keep me out for more than a week."

Like all outstanding sportsmen Vaughan recognises the importance of seizing the moment. The injury merely completed a Vaughan-like double. His innings of 59 from 53 balls ended when he dropped the bat, trying to regain his ground after a return throw from the bowler, Daniel Vettori. He was apparently ruled to be out by the third umpire, although confusion reigned on that and he did not see the light until he was nearly in the changing room. Two months ago in India he was out handled ball. An unlucky cricketer indeed.

But now at least he has demonstrated conclusively that he can play one-day international cricket. Despite his upright range of strokes, there has been a tendency in some circles to suggest he is fit only for the longer game. As always, the gifted players can play any form.

"Tests and one-dayers are two different forms of the game," he said. "You do have to change your approach but the basic principles also stay the same as well. You have to have a good base, the head position stays the same but sometimes in one-day innings there's more pressure because you do have to up the tempo and look for boundaries whereas in Test cricket you can can plod along scoring ones and twos and wait for boundaries. They're both fascinating games."

If Vaughan should be unfit, England will probably recall Owais Shah, who was unlucky to be dropped. They are likely to retain Marcus Trescothick as wicketkeeper but unless he makes the most of expert coaching soon, this is not a long-term option. The wicketkeeping on both sides in this series has been ugly and inefficient; eventually that affects the fielding. England can win, but so can New Zealand. Five years ago, when these two sides last played, they drew 2-2 in a five-match series after one match was tied.

They are evenly matched enough again for a bizarre repeat. Any decent bookie probably has the odds at about one in 1.266.