With just three games left this season is shaping up to be the greatest Championship promotion race ever

There is still everything to play for

(Getty Images)

With three games left in a thrilling scrap it is still nigh-on impossible to say who’s going straight up, who’s play-off bound and who’ll miss out. Jack Pitt-Brooke looks for clues.

Bournemouth

The run that no-one thought could continue now has just three games left. Bournemouth, implausibly, are still top of the Championship, and already confirmed, at the very least, for a play-off place and the highest league finish in the history of the club.

Whatever happens from here on in, this season has been a triumph of management for Eddie Howe. Speaking late on Tuesday night, after their 1-0 win at Reading, Howe said there could be no “cause for disappointment” even if the end of the campaign did not go to plan. He is probably right, and expectation management is natural, but there is no avoiding the fact that his team are on the brink of next season’s Premier League.

Their rise has been built on the best attacking football in the division: they have out-scored everyone, with 90 goals. Howe calls it “total football” and he has a point. The team are more than the sum of their parts, harassing opponents, winning the ball back and always dangerous on the ball. Andrew Surman and Harry Arter are the beating heart of the midfield, Matt Ritchie dangerous down the right wing while, up front, Yann Kermorgant provides the class and Callum Wilson the incision.

What has been especially impressive, though, and important, has been how this great run has not just been on momentum alone. Bournemouth went five winless games in February, slipping back to fourth, but fought their way back to the top. In their last two away matches, at Brighton and Reading, they were not allowed to play their natural game but they dug in and won anyway.

Tuesday night at the Madejski Stadium was draining for the players, holding on to a 1-0 lead for 86 minutes after Wilson’s early goal, but they did it, and afterwards Howe was thrilled with their application under immense pressure. “Most teams are trying to knock our rhythm,” he said, “but we’re finding a new way to win. I’ll take that at this stage.”

So all the expectations that Bournemouth would fade away have so far been confounded. Aitor Karanka has seen his Middlesbrough side slip behind Howe’s and he said this week that there might be more pressure on the team in first place than on the chasers. Howe was having none of it.

“All I will say is that I would rather be where we are,” he said. “I’d rather be top than coming from behind. We have a chance to have things in our own hands, that is what we want and that is what we want to keep.”

Norwich City

Every year there is one team whose spring momentum threatens to wash away everyone in their path and this time that team is Norwich City. The turning point of their season, the source of that run, is obvious: it was the moment in January when Alex Neil was brought in from Hamilton Academical to replace Neil Adams as manger.

Since then Norwich have been brilliant, climbing from eighth place – nowhere near the required standard given that the Canaries, relegated from the Premier League last season, have the strongest squad in the league – up to second. They have taken 38 points from the last available 45.

Norwich are the form team in the Championship, playing with an ambition and style last seen when Paul Lambert was taking them through the leagues in 2010 and 2011. Neil told The Independent recently of the importance of “high pressure” on the opposition and “invention and creativity” with the ball. But the positive approach is paying off, and when Gary Hooper won the game at Bolton in the last minute on Saturday, it felt like a moment.

Of course, it certainly helps Norwich that they have players like Hooper, with Premier League experience and the desire to get back there as soon as possible. Jonny Howson, Nathan Redmond, Bradley Johnson, John Ruddy, Wes Hoolahan and Russell Martin are all veterans of their top-flight spell under Lambert and Chris Hughton.

When they take on Middlesbrough at Carrow Road tomorrow evening, Norwich can reassert their hold on second place. With two relegation strugglers to play after that, they may well be straight back in the big time.

Watford

After a dismal year or so after their 2013 play-off final defeat, and a run of managers, Watford have finally regained some stability, with Serbian coach Slavisa Jokanovic finding balance between their British core and Pozzo family imports. They won again last night – 3-1 at Forest and with Odion Ighalo and Troy Deeney up front – with 40 between them in the Championship – they are full of goals.

Watford probably have the most straightforward run-in, Birmingham at home, Brighton away, Sheffield Wednesday at home. Despite the bad memories of 2013, when they blew automatic promotion on the last day against Leeds, this year they might just sneak it.

Middlesbrough

If there is frustration on Teesside that Boro have slipped away from the automatic promotion places, there must be optimism as well. This has been their best Championship finish since relegation from the Premier League in 2009 and arguably the most enjoyable year since Steve McClaren left Middlesbrough the England job in 2006.

Aitor Karanka, having been Jose Mourinho’s assistant at Real Madrid, has been an inspired choice as manager, basing the team on his mentor’s priorities of defensive organisation. They have the most clean sheets in the Championship – 19 – and have conceded the fewest goals – 33. That Mourinho link, of course, has also helped them to bring in three loan players from Chelsea, including the brilliant Patrick Bamford.

Only a few recent away defeats at Forest, Bournemouth and Watford have dented their season, but Middlesbrough have a chance to atone at Norwich tomorrow night in their biggest game of the season so far.

Derby County

For so much of this season, McClaren’s team looked like they could avoid last season’s play-off misery by going up automatically. Unfortunately, their March collapse now makes a return to Wembley look like an optimistic outcome. Still lacking solidity and with injury depriving them of leading scorer Chris Martin, Derby took just three points from seven games, which included a horrific 2-2 home draw with Birmingham City when they were leading 2-0 in injury time. Even with Darren Bent’s 12 goals on loan, their momentum seems to have gone.

Brentford

This is already Brentford’s best season for 80 years and it is remarkable that promotion is still an option. Even though results have slightly tailed off since the news broke of manager Mark Warburton’s departure this summer, they are still an enterprising, attacking outfit, who with the skilful Alex Pritchard pulling the strings in midfield, could cause anyone problem in the play-offs. With Bolton, Reading and Wigan left to play, they should be confident of making it there.

Ipswich Town

If Ipswich can see off Wolves at Molineux on Saturday they should almost have a lock on their play-off place, which says a lot about the steady improvement under Mick McCarthy, the mixture of solidity and quality that, in a less competitive year, might have already secured them automatic promotion back to the Premier League.

Wolves

Kenny Jackett has reimposed the right values at Wolves and was cautious to keep together the core of the side which won promotion from League One. Since Benik Afobe joined from Arsenal for £2m in January he has already scored 11 goals and now Wolves – as long as they beat Ipswich – may just be able to claw their way into the play-offs.

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P-W-D-L-F-A-Pts

Bournemouth 43-24-11-8-90-43-83

Norwich 43-24-10-9 -83-44-82

Watford 43-25-7-11-87-49-82

Middlesbrough 43-24-9-10-64-33-81

Derby 43-21-12-10-78-46-75

Ipswich 43-21-11-11-67-49-74

Brentford 43-21-8-14-71-57-71

Wolves 43-20-11-12-64-53-71

Remaining top-eight fixtures:

Friday Norwich v Middlesbrough

Saturday Bournemouth v Sheff Wed, Brentford v Bolton, Huddersfield v Derby, Watford v Birmingham, Wolves v Ipswich

Saturday 25 April Brighton v Watford, Fulham v Middlesbrough, Ipswich v Nott’m Forest, Millwall v Derby, Reading v Brentford, Rotherham v Norwich, Wigan v Wolves

Monday 27 April Bournemouth v Bolton

Saturday 2 May Blackburn v Ipswich, Brentford v Wigan, Charlton v Bournemouth, Derby v Reading, Middlesbrough v Brighton, Norwich v Fulham, Watford v Sheff Wed, Wolves v Millwall