Euro 2016 analysis: the state of the nations heading into this summer's tournament in France

Who are the favourites? And who are the likley challengers?

France forward Anthony Martial (Getty Images)

FAVOURITES (1-3)

France

They are the hosts, they are in the best form, and they have the best range of quality players in Europe. There are more powerful arguments to suggest France will repeat their 1998 triumph than that they will not. While they have not played competitively since the 2014 World Cup, Didier Deschamps’ side has improved as he been able to throw more and more individual ability into the mix. The core was strong enough: Hugo Lloris, Laurent Koscielny, Blaise Matuidi, Paul Pogba and Antoine Griezmann. But now there is Anthony Martial, Kingsley Coman, Ngolo Kante and Dimitri Payet too.

Germany

Finally fulfilling years of promise in Brazil in 2014, Germany are world champions and have a squad full of top players coming into their peak. They have the best goalkeeper in the world, a strong defence and intelligent midfield, players going into their fourth tournament together. And yet defeats to Poland and Ireland in qualification – and to England last Saturday – suggest that this is not quite a perfect team. They lack a world class centre forward, and their two most accomplished goal-scorers, Mario Gomez and Lukas Podolski, are both playing for Besiktas and Galatasaray. They can use Mario Gotze there – he won them the World Cup of course – but it is not an ideal solution.

Spain

The greatest international team of the modern era was knocked off its perch two years ago in Brazil, and is now wondering how to get back there. The big question, the only question, for Vicente del Bosque is whether he sticks with the players who won those three straight tournaments, or whether he brings through the next generation. Iker Casillas or David De Gea? Cesc Fabregas or Koke? David Silva or Thiago Alcantara? There is so much talent in this squad, and they finally have a good striker again in Alvaro Morata, but two friendly draws this month suggest they have not quite got the right balance.

LIKELY CHALLENGERS (4-7)

England

Two years of steady progress after a disappointing World Cup culminated last Saturday in Berlin, as England overturned the world champions in their own backyard. There is a clear sense of identity to Roy Hodgson’s side now – young, energetic, dynamic - with half of the outfield players coming from a Tottenham team with the same traits. Harry Kane and Dele Alli are match-winners and there are more accomplished players – Wayne Rooney, Daniel Sturridge and maybe even Jack Wilshere – to be integrated too. It was the defence, ultimately, that cost England in Brazil and if they can find some security there the semi-finals are within reach.

Belgium

Marc Wilmots has one of the strongest squads in Europe at his disposal but there is still a nagging sense that he does not get enough out of his players. They underperformed at the World Cup and while they won a tricky qualification group, they have the raw materials to go all the way in France: three of the best centre-backs in the Premier League, the reigning Footballer of the Year in Eden Hazard and the next great European number 9 in Romelu Lukaku. The big question is Wilmots: can he finally find a system to suit them all?

Italy

Antonio Conte took over as Italy coach after walking out on Juventus in 2014, and now he is preparing to quit this summer to return to club football. In this brief tenure he has imposed his values on what is a rather limited Italy squad. They were unbeaten in qualification, conceding just seven goals in 10 games, and with Gigi Buffon in goal and Leonardo Bonucci at the back they ought to be hard to beat, even if they did just lose 4-1 in Munich. Whether they have enough quality in midfield and up front is another question. They will need Lorenzo Insigne, Napoli’s brilliant little forward, to deliver.

Portugal

Cristiano Ronaldo may be slowing down at 31, but as long as he leads the line for Portugal they can beat anyone in world football. He opened the scoring last night in a 2-1 win over Belgium and may go into this summer’s Euro wondering if this is his last chance to make a serious impression on an international tournament. Behind him Fernando Santos has assembled a good team, livened up by a new generation of youngsters who ought to have won the European Under-21 Championship last year: William Carvalho and Bernardo Silva in midfield, and Arsenal target Raphael Guerreiro at left back all stand out.

Cristiano Ronaldo makes a gesture for Portugal this week (Getty Images)

STRONG OUTSIDERS (8-12)

Croatia

They had to sack Robert Kovac on the way, but under new coach Ante Cacic, Croatia turned their qualification campaign around to reach the Euros. They have experience and quality in Darijo Srna, Luka Modric and Mario Mandzukic, who play for top clubs and have been to tournaments before. Then they new generation of brilliant midfielders – Mateo Kovacic and Alen Halilovic –who are owned by Real Madrid and Barcelona, even if they do not play much. If they find a rhythm it will not be easy to get the ball back off them.

Poland

Football is a team game but Poland have the best individual player at the Euros: Robert Lewandowski. The Bayern Munich striker was top scorer in qualification, with 13 goals, and has been shredding the Bundesliga with Bayern and Dortmund for five seasons now. All they need is for the rest of the team to keep things tight, but with experienced defenders, and Sevilla’s canny Grzegorz Krychowiak anchoring midfield, they should be able to do that. Then Lewandowski can pick off the opposition at will.

Wales

Like Poland, Wales are a solid side elevated by their one world-class forward. Gareth Bale’s goals were crucial to Wales’ qualifying for their first tournament since 1958, and Chris Coleman has built a 5-3-2 system which should provide him the perfect platform, up front alongside Hal Robson-Kanu. Wales have a solid defence built around James Collins and Ashley Williams, and good midfielders in Joe Allen, Joe Ledley and Aaron Ramsey, who can score goals with those clever late runs. But if Bale can play at his best in France then Wales can give more established opposition – including England – a real scare.

Austria

Having automatically played as co-hosts at Euro 2008, this is the first tournament Austria have qualified for since France ’98. But Marcel Koller has been coaching this team for five years and they were almost immaculate in Group G. This is mainly a physically robust team, with Premier League defenders Christian Fuchs and Kevin Wimmer. But they have a trump card in David Alaba, their brilliant multi-functional 23-year old. He plays left-back for Bayern Munich but may be wasted there in a tournament, and could well be one of the very best players at the Euros.

Turkey

Qualification did not start well for Fatih Terim’s side, but they won their last three games to scrape in as the best third-placed side. Having beaten Sweden and Austria in friendlies this week they have found form at the right time and have the players to beat anyone on their day. Arda Turan is not a regular for Barcelona but he is a brilliant midfielder while only Dimitri Payet is a better free-kick taker than Bayer Leverkusen’s Hakan Calhanoglu. Throw in Nuri Sahin and Kerim Frei and they have more ability than many squads in the competition.

NEED TO IMPROVE (13-16)

Switzerland

Vladimir Petkovic’s side were solid enough in qualifying, without ever troubling England in Group E. But their last two friendly results, losing to the Republic of Ireland and Bosnia, suggest that they may have a difficult time in France. For all their reliability in midfield, based around Borussia Monchengladbach’s Granit Xhaka, there is an obvious lack of goals in the team. Basel teenager Breel Embolo is a great prospect but he has only just turned 19 and Xherdan Shaqiri cannot do it all from the wing.

Russia

Russia were heading for the embarrassment of not qualifying under Fabio Capello, and it was only when he was replaced by Leonid Slutsky last summer that results turned around. Slutsky won his first five games to confirm qualification. And yet this squad of players is no better than it was under Capello, with a lack of youth and quality. They certainly have experience in Sergei Ignashevich, Yuri Zhirkov and Roman Shirokov, but they are some way from the exciting team who took Euro 2008 by storm. Aleksandr Kokorin, just signed by Zenit St Petersburg from Dynamo Moscow, is their best hope.

Sweden

After a disappointing campaign – third in an average group – Sweden needed the play-off to qualify. The beat Denmark 4-3, Zlatan Ibrahimovic scoring three of their goals. That sums Sweden up, as they are as dependent on the brilliant 34-year-old as they have ever been. As Zlatan prepares his next move, with big money on the table in the Premier League but far more from China, Sweden can simply wait for him to deliver what will probably be his final tournament appearance in June. They are in the hardest group in the tournament, though, and it may be too big a task for even him.

Ukraine

It was hugely important to Ukraine to qualify for this, after such a difficult few years, but they overcame Slovenia in the play-offs, which they failed to do for Euro 2000. Coach Mykhalyo Fomenko is not universally popular for his innate conservativism, but Ukraine have two weapons many other teams would love: twin wingers Yevhen Konoplyanka and Andriy Yarmolenko. Konoplyanka is punchy, explosive and direct, and has shown at Sevilla that he can step up to a higher level of competition. Yarmolenko, at Dynamo Kyiv, is elusive, incisive and dangerous. If those two fire Ukraine can certainly win games.

OUTSIDERS (17-20)

Czech Republic

Only England confirmed qualification before Czech Republic, who won a competitive Group A which included Iceland, Holland and Turkey. Their surprise defeat at home to Scotland in a friendly this week shows that when they are without Petr Cech, Jaroslav Plasil and Tomas Rosicky they are lacking in control. Without them this is a young squad, predominantly based at home with Sparta Prague, who face an imposingly difficult group in France this summer.

Iceland

The most impressive feat of qualification was the 333,000-strong nation of Iceland reaching their first major tournament. And yet they are far from being the rankest outsiders, thanks to a very talented generation of players who have been working together through the youth system. Gylfi Sigurdsson is a proven Premier League player, while strikers Kolbeinn Sigthorsson and Alfred Finnbogason have scored goals all over Europe. They are compact, technical and play like a team, and will embarrass anyone who tries to take them for granted.

Republic of Ireland

Martin O’Neill’s rebuilding of the Republic side looked to be in vain before a historic 1-0 defeat of Germany in Dublin which transformed the team’s prospects. After beating Bosnia in the play-off they arrive in France with real momentum, far more than Giovanni Trappattoni’s ageing team had at Euro 2012. They may well lack goals up front, although Shane Long is a willing runner. But there is proven Premier League quality in James McCarthy, Wes Hoolahan and Seamus Coleman.

Slovakia

Slovakia have not been dealt an easy draw, but they qualified well for their first European Championship as an independent nation. They are a muscular team, led by Martin Skrtel, who has his critics but certainly puts everything into his performances for his country. They have just one player of real class, Napoli midfielder Marek Hamsik, who can score goals from all over. Emerging winger Erik Sabo of PAOK in Greece is also worth watching out for.

DISTANT OUTSIDERS (21-24)

Romania

Anghel Iordanescu came out of retirement to coach the Romanian national team for the third time, and they will contest the opening match of Euro 2016. Beyond that they are unlikely to make too much of an impression on the tournament. They qualified through the very open Group F – which Northern Ireland won – and they are led by Vlad Chiriches, one of the early casualties of Mauricio Pochettino’s reign at Tottenham Hotspur.

Northern Ireland

Michael O’Neill’s side were so strong in qualification, winning their group, that they would have made it to a 16-team tournament, which is quite something. O’Neill has got them playing purposeful, attractive football and while Kyle Lafferty’s club career is a curious thing, he is a reliable goalscorer and talisman to the national side. Steven Davis adds class in midfield although they will miss the precise left-foot of Chris Brunt in midfield.

Hungary

Hungary were once the best team in the world but their decline was so sharp that they went 30 years without qualifying for a major tournament before this campaign. Despite going through three coaches in qualification, German journeyman Bernd Stock saw them into the play-offs, where they surprisingly beat Norway 3-1. A side with no stars but some experience, including those who have gone back to Hungary to finish their careers: 36-year-old Zoltan Gera and, even more improbably, 39-year-old Gabor Kiraly.

Albania

As with Iceland, this is their first major tournament, and they have done especially well given the number of eligible players they have lost to neighbouring Kosovo or to Switzerland. So while Granit Xhaka plays for the Swiss, his brother Taulant Xhaka plays for Albania. The team is knitted together by Lorik Cana, once of Sunderland, now of Nantes, and a ferocious leader whether at centre-back or holding midfield.