Fantasy Premier League: Time to drop Diego Costa, Sergio Aguero or Alexis Sanchez?

Tips and advice on the official Premier League fantasy football game

Diego Costa’s talent is undermined rather than enhanced by his propensity to foul opponents (Getty)

We’re now two thirds of the way through the FPL season and motivation can become a challenge. We’ve all been there. The dream of the ultimate prize is long gone and even the lowly ambition of mini-league glory appears beyond reach, as the gap to the leader stretches beyond 100 points. We placed our faith in the miraculous healing powers of the winter wildcard, but two weeks on and our team is in tatters. New managers have come in and irritatingly fiddled with the line-up (goodbye Andre Wisdom and Chris Baird). Injuries have begun to take their toll. Rotation has crept in as managers juggle the run-in with the prospect of cup glory. And disciplinary issues abound. But despite this instability wreaking havoc with our fantasy football prospects, there are two big reasons to keep the faith...

1) Blank and Double Gameweeks: The Capital One Cup has disrupted the fixture list for Gameweek 27, with Chelsea vs Leicester and QPR vs Tottenham postponed. Fantasy football team benches will be stress-tested with the highly owned Chelsea and Tottenham assets guaranteed not to feature. The flip-side is that Tottenham and QPR play twice in Gameweek 28 – offering an opportunity for managers to earn points from two matches for these players in a single gameweek. Chelsea will also have a double game week featuring Leicester somewhere down the line. Time your transfers to capitalise on this quirk and there is a big opportunity to close the gap.

2) Growing pool of low-ownership opportunities: With new transfers, new managers, new injuries and freshly fit returning players there is a wave of differentials for us to consider. Mini-league leaders will be tempted to rest on their laurels, play a cautious game and focus on the big hitters with proven pedigree. But for the chasers, it’s time to roll the dice. This may mean swerving Diego Costa, Sergio Aguero, or Alexis Sanchez and embracing a more volatile proposition. Even if it ends in tears, it will probably be an entertaining ride.

This part of the season is like moving day in a major. It separates the wheat from the chaff, the committed from the casual, the hopeful from the despairing. Navigate the complexity and miracles can happen.

Independent Scout Picks:

To illustrate the bounty of scarcely owned but highly lucrative players on offer, each of this week’s Independent picks are owned by less than 5 per cent of FPL teams.

Simon Mignolet: He has certainly had mixed fortunes this season, but with five clean sheets in his last eight games, the Reds stopper is good enough for us. Ownership: 4.0%

Kurt Zouma: Will he start? Won’t he start? Mourinho can’t seem to make up his mind, but at £4.6m we’re willing to take the gamble. Ownership: 1.2%

John Stones: The Everton defence has been transformed with Stones at the back. The young Englishman can make it 4 clean sheets in 6 games against Leicester. Ownership: 0.9%

Aleksandar Kolarov: There’s every chance he won’t start, but when he does he is dynamite, offering more offensively than he does at the back. Ownership: 3.1%

Samir Nasri: A return to the points last week puts Nasri back in our thoughts. He was a great asset down the stretch last season and could be a good alternative to the more popular David Silva and Yaya Toure in the Manchester City midfield. Ownership: 1.8%

Mesut Ozil: The returning German is arguably the most in-form FPL prospect right now, with 32 points in three games. The good news is that people don’t seem to have cottoned on. Ownership: 4.6%

Theo Walcott: With two goals in three games the Arsenal speedster has reminded us of the goal-scoring ability that reaped points galore in seasons past. Ownership: 1.1%

Aarron Lennon: He’s had a couple of games to get his feet under the table at Everton and can now show his quality against a struggling Leicester side. Ownership: 0.6%

Wilfired Bony: If he starts, he is the greatest differential of them all. The highest scoring player of 2014 in the highest scoring team of 2014 is a mouth-watering propsect. But will he start? Ownership: 4.2%

Dame N’Doye: Hull’s January signing has hit the ground running with 13 points in his first two games. A home fixture against QPR is a great chance to add to his tally. Ownership: 0.2%

Brown Ideye: With 15 points in his last two Premier League games and a brace in the FA cup, Ideye is bang in form and could be set for a spell in the side with Victor Anichebe again battling injuries. Ownership: 0.2%

The other benefit of taking a riskier approach is that the market discounts for risk, so there is plenty of money left over to fund a quality bench. If Kolarov and Zouma don’t play Hector Bellerin and Danny Rose can ably step in, and Philippe Coutinho offers quality support in midfield.

If you’re falling behind, take a chance! It might pay off...