Why Manchester City might not win this season's Premier League, maybe

Finding evidence to suggest that City will not win the title is an exercise in clutching at straws, but there are still certain obstacles that could trouble them

Manchester City picked up the most points, scored the most goals, won the most games and registered the biggest winning points margin in Premier League history on their way to last season’s title. Is there any reason to suggest they will not defend it?

Some in Liverpool, some in London and maybe even some in Manchester would argue there is. But even when allowing for movements at the rest of the ‘top six’ clubs, Pep Guardiola’s side were so dominant last year and so consistently performed at a level far above every other side that they are indisputable favourites.

Will it prove to be such a foregone conclusion in practice, though? Finding evidence to suggest that City will not win the title is like an exercise in clutching at straws, but there are still certain obstacles that could trouble them. If one, two or all of them cause problems, who knows? A title race could suddenly break out.

No cover for Fernandinho

The major frustration of City’s summer so far was their failure to bring Jorginho to the Etihad. The deep-lying midfielder chose Chelsea and a reunion with his former Napoli manager Maurizio Sarri instead.

Jorginho was said to be a replacement for Yaya Touré, though he surely would have played more than the 228 Premier League minutes Touré managed last season. More likely, he would have eased the burden on Fernandinho, a 33-year-old who played some 4,000 minutes across all competitions.

In one of the team’s most demanding roles, Fernandinho was an often-unheralded success last season. At his age, though, can he be expected to do it all over again? Even if he does, he is not as inventive a passer as Jorginho or as natural a fit in the role.

Nor are Ilkay Gundogan, Oleksandr Zinchenko and John Stones, all touted as alternatives. Douglas Luiz has been talked up by Guardiola but is ineligible until he receives a work permit and, in any case, struggled for playing time at Girona last year. Carlos Garcia is an untested teenager.

If last season taught us anything, it is that Guardiola can mend and make do with a small but flexible squad. Still, there was a hint of wistfulness last week when he hailed Jorginho as an “exceptional holding midfielder”, as that is exactly what he needs to complete his vision at City. With one, they would look almost unstoppable.

Jorginho and Fernandinho in Sunday's Community Shield (Getty)

An ageing contingent of influential players

Guardiola’s attempts to hit the ground running in his first season with City were undermined by an ageing set of full-backs. Pablo Zabaleta, Gael Clichy, Bacary Sagna and Aleksandar Kolarov were all on the wrong side of 30 and all sold in the following summer.

Ahead of his third season, Guardiola finds himself with a new contingent of over-30 players – Fernandinho is one. Vincent Kompany and Nicolas Otamendi, his preferred defensive pairing towards the end of last season, are two others. David Silva and Sergio Aguero make it five in total.

There are three key differences between this group and the full-backs of 2016. First, they play centrally rather than wide, so are not asked to cover quite as much ground. Secondly, City have learned from past mistakes in recruitment and have young or peak-age understudies in place for them all, bar Fernandinho.

The third, though, is that this current crop enjoys a greater deal of influence at the club. Kompany, Silva, Aguero and Fernandinho – along with Kevin de Bruyne – are all in the five-man ‘senior players group’ set up by Guardiola that provides a bridge between the dressing room and management.

Will their influence still be as strong if their minutes dwindle? Could one of the squad’s few players in their mid-to-late 20s step up, as De Bruyne did last year? Guardiola’s management of this group and their expectations over the course of the campaign will be interesting.

The effects of World Cup fatigue

City had more representatives at this summer’s World Cup in Russia than any other club in the world, with 16 players competing at the tournament. Only one of those – Germany’s Ilkay Gundogan – was eliminated in the group stages. A full, competitive City-based XI could be formed from the teams that reached the quarter-finals alone.

The 4,585 minutes that Guardiola’s players clocked up in Russia was not the most of any Premier League side – that honour fell to Tottenham Hotspur – but compare that with Liverpool, the team many expect to be the closest challengers, who racked up less than half City’s total.

While Mohamed Salah and Sadio Mané fell at the first hurdle and are available to play on this opening Premier League weekend, the likes of Kevin De Bruyne and Raheem Sterling are yet to return. Stones has cut his holiday short but played 645 minutes this summer, in each and every one of England’s games at the World Cup.

The additional playing time adds up to an average of three games per player, which does not represent much over the course of a whole year. Still, City are among the clubs that are worst affected and after a slight but perceptible slowdown in the second half of last season, Guardiola should be wary of fatigue.

City's Belgian and English players in Russia (Getty)

Europe is the next frontier

“The Premier League is the main target,” Guardiola said last Friday when asked about his priorities for the year ahead. “The Premier League shows you how you are as a team, if you are a stable system. In the Champions League, it is more unpredictable. One bad moment, bad decisions, a bad half-time can break all the work of the whole season.”

Back-to-back league titles would certainly be welcome at the Etihad and, as Guardiola suggests, this side does not need European success in order to prove its greatness. Yet the Champions League is this team’s next calling and the opportunity that was missed in the competition last season should not be forgotten.

At the start of the campaign, Barcelona, Bayern Munich and Real Madrid – the eventual, underwhelming winners – all looked vulnerable. The stage was set for a new type of super-club to break that trio’s stranglehold on the competition. Neither City nor Paris Saint-Germain managed to do that.

Barcelona have strengthened since but Bayern and Madrid are entering the new season with new managers and plenty of questions, so too PSG. City’s relative stability is to their advantage and makes them early-season favourites. If the title can be effectively wrapped up by Christmas again, thoughts will begin to turn to Europe.

But if one of the chasing pack can keep within City’s distance until springtime, Guardiola’s priorities could suddenly be revised. For Liverpool, Tottenham, Manchester United and the rest, the key could be simply keeping City in range and then waiting until their schedule piles up for the opportune moment to strike.