World Cup 2018: ‘It’ is not coming home, but beat Colombia and England can dare to dream that ‘it’ could happen

England aren't as bad as they have been, but also not as good as people currently believe

Jonathan Liew
Moscow
Tuesday 03 July 2018 17:43 BST
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It’s coming home. Whether the ‘it’ refers to England or Colombia, of course, is at this stage a matter primarily of conjecture and secondarily of footballing insight, only to be resolved definitely at the Spartak Stadium in Moscow on Tuesday evening.

In the days since their resounding 6-1 victory over Panama in the group phase, there has been plenty of the former and notably less of the latter; the subsequent defeat to Belgium, and the eliminations of illustrious potential opponents in Germany and Spain, have fuelled all sorts of outlandish predictions and projections, all of which arrive at the same conclusion: three simple words that Ian Broudie, Frank Skinner and David Baddiel must now be wishing they had never written.

Draw wish fulfilment is of course one of those idle exercises that make these tournaments what they are: the sort of amateur clairvoyance that passably fills those long gaps between 9pm when the previous day’s football ends, and 3pm when the next day’s begins. Naturally, too, there is a heavy streak of irony in the wave of Three Lions euphoria that seems to have swept the nation in recent weeks, perhaps stemming from the sheer disbelief of having a team we can trust for once. The “it’s coming home” phenomenon thus occurs at the crossroads of novelty patriotism and the real thing, a flimsy coalition of temporary convenience that will no doubt fracture irrevocably long before July is out.

On one level, it’s tempting to put all this down to the essentially infantility of English society, which time and again has proved itself incapable of sustaining any emotion in between seething disgust and jingoistic fantasy. Any dispassionate assessment of Gareth Southgate’s side would surely have to conclude that they are neither as bad as everyone assumed when they lost to Iceland two years ago, nor as good as their most fervid advocates would have you believe now. Then again, “It’s got about a 10 per cent chance of coming home, depending on how the other half of the draw fares” doesn’t really sell that many souvenir T-shirts.

In this respect, losing to Belgium in Kaliningrad may have been the best thing to happen to this England side, taking the edge off the hype just enough to keep them optimistic but hungry. Their 1-0 defeat was a reminder of just how anaemic they can look going forward without the torque and thrust of Harry Kane up front, and his return on Tuesday night - hopefully fit and rested - will surely be the key difference between the England of Kaliningrad and the England we can expect to see in Moscow.

Colombia, too, will seek to welcome back their talisman, although the return of James Rodriguez to their starting line-up after the injury he suffered after half an hour of their 1-0 win over Senegal is nowhere near as assured. Whether Rodriguez is fit will probably have a material impact on how Colombia play; if he is absent, the creative burden will largely fall on Juan Fernando Quintero, with coach Jose Pekerman probably opting for greater control in midfield.

With the evergreen Falcao up front, and the fleet-footed Juan Cuadrado prowling the right wing, Colombia have plenty of counter-attacking options even without Rodriguez. They will seek to hit England down the channels, luring their centre-halves out to the touchline. Centre-half Yerry Mina is a severe threat from set-pieces, where England have occasionally looked brittle during this tournament.

Midfielder Carlos Sanchez believes that England will start as favourites. “They are the ones who invented the game,” he said, clearly never having watched us play cricket. But the broader consensus is that this tie is essentially a toss of a coin, especially in a tournament where conventional wisdom has occasionally been made to look extremely silly. This will be a far tenser test than any England have faced so far, and the longer the game drifts towards penalties, the greater the psychological burden, both in Russia and at home.

But come through it, and England will no longer be hopefuls but genuine tournament contenders. Sweden or Switzerland in a quarter-final would demand respect but not trepidation; a limited Russia or a tiring Croatia side would be about as salubrious an opponent as one could possibly hope for in a World Cup semi-final. We’re getting ahead of ourselves here, of course, but the point is that of all their potential forthcoming games, Colombia is by far the most dangerous. Win it, and England can truly and legitimately begin to dream.

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