New York threat to London's ambitions

There is good news and bad news for Britain in the wake of big-hitting Beijing's second- round knockout to win the Olympic Games of 2008. The good news is that Paris, shocked by their poor showing here – they actually finished fourth in the first round of voting – may not bid for 2012, when London hopes to enter the lists.

The bad news is that there are a growing number of other formidable candidates, excited by the burgeoning commercial prospects of the Olympics, who are more than capable of crushing London's aspirations. Among them is Moscow. The Russian President, Vladimir Putin, is expected to announce Moscow's candidacy today, 21 years after the city became the first Communist venue for the Games.

The Germans are likely to put forward Berlin, and half- a-dozen American cities are preparing to fight it out to become the US candidate. Top of the list is New York, which has never had the Games and might well start favourite.

Interestingly, New York has recruited the veteran Olympic film producer Bud Greenspan to help prepare their bid. It was Greenspan's brilliant documentary film which seemed to clinch the 2008 Games for China during Friday's presentation to the IOC. Somewhat ironic, this, in view of the US antipathy towards China.

"I never had any qualms about helping the Chinese,'' says Greenspan, whose official film of the Sydney Games will be released next week. "I'm convinced the Olympics will be in the right place. They can only assist with the social and political reforms in a totalitarian state, as they did in Moscow in 1980.''

He is supported in that view by the BOA chairman, Craig Reedie. "If the Olympics are for the world then the world is a bigger place today as a result of this,'' he said after the vote. Whether that world will be big enough to accommodate London in 2012 – or even in years to come – remains in doubt. Reedie is keen for a London bid to go ahead, but he acknowledges that while two of the three agencies who could make it possible, the BOA and Ken Livingstone's Greater London Authority, are in favour, the financial ball is in the Government's court.

"London is still a long way from getting a viable bid off the ground,'' he said. My view remains that it will be 2020 before any such bid has a realistic chance of succeeding. The IOC remain sceptical of Britain's commitment to staging major international events because of the lack of sporting infrastructure and government support, a deficiency not apparent among any of the five candidates for 2008.

Certainly not in China, who won the Games in the most emphatic result since Los Angeles were returned unopposed in 1984. The question of human rights was barely touched on by the IOC, whose director-general, François Carrard, explained that they had two choices: either to shut the door on Beijing as a sanction or to gamble on the Olympics paving the way for reform. "We are prepared to bet there will be changes,'' he said.

He is probably right. The unbridled joy with which the result was received by the Chinese indicates that the Games will be a milestone, with China even planning to take the Olympic flame to the top of Mount Everest as a symbolic act to repair relationships with Tibet.

So intense will be the spotlight that China know they must progress, for there is the chance that the IOC would take the Games away and give them to a standby city like Sydney or Seoul in the event of any Tiananmen Square-like incident. Having won the vote, the Chinese will not risk the ultimate ignominy of losing face.