Mercedes and Lewis Hamilton must keep developing or risk losing advantage to Ferrari ahead of summer break

A humdinger of a race could have been so much different as Mercedes must step up development or risk losing psychological advantage to Ferrari

The impact that Lewis Hamilton felt from Kimi Raikkonen in the third corner at the start of Sunday’s British GP was by no means the most significant one of his race. Much more lasting was the impression that Ferrari left on Mercedes at Silverstone, where traditionally the silver arrows have had the upper hand.

The race was a humdinger. Rarely since the pre-chicane days of the late sixties and early seventies at Monza have four topliners gone wheel-to-wheel over the final laps of a race. But had Raikkonen not spun Hamilton down almost to last place, or two safety car interventions (on the 33rd lap after Marcus Ericsson’s crash and on lap 42 when Carlos Sainz and Romain Grosjean tangled at Copse) it could have been a different story.

The first threw Hamilton the lifeline that would eventually catapult him from a recovered fifth to a hugely damage-limiting second, making his nett loss to Vettel on a tough day only seven points. At one stage it could have been as much as 25.

The second helped stay Vettel’s execution of Hamilton’s team-mate Valtteri Bottas, after Ferrari had pitted both their drivers for fresh soft-compound tyres after the Ericsson shunt, and Mercedes had elected not to.

Thus, at the denouement, apples were not being compared with apples. But overall, Ferrari’s sheer speed came not just as a surprise to the team themselves. They had come to their bogey circuit expecting another beating, and for sure Mercedes believed the same thing before the race, even though Hamilton knew it would be close.

For Ferrari to come away with victory and the knowledge that their car is at least a match for the Mercedes, on a circuit that ought to have suited the latter far better with its long straights and very fast sequences of corners, was a major fillip to them and a huge blow to Mercedes.

Ferrari know their car can at least match Lewis Hamilton's Mercedes (Getty)

You can bet that, more than anything, is what Mercedes will be investigating minutely in the day prior to the revived German Grand Prix at Hockenheim on July 22nd.

One key factor was the ambient and track temperatures. These were both much higher than normal in Northamptonshire, and Ferrari traditionally prosper in such conditions just as the harder compound tyres – in this instance Pirelli’s hard medium and soft rubber – usually favour the Mercedes.

When Hamilton was fastest in the first practice session on Friday morning, the respective temperatures were 41 and 22 degrees C. In the afternoon, when Vettel went ahead, they were 53 and 27. In Saturday morning’s session Hamilton was again fastest, in 41 and 23 degree conditions.

Hamilton took pole position after an impressive qualifying performance (Reuters)

It was very hot again for qualifying, at 52 and 26, and Vettel dominated Q1 before Hamilton eased ahead in Q2 and then pulled out a fabulous lap to take pole position from Vettel by 0.044s. In retrospect, that may have owed more to the driver than to the car.

All it took at the start, held in 52 and 26 degree temperatures again, was a tad too much wheelspin, and Hamilton’s trouble path was mapped out as he dropped behind Vettel and Bottas, and prey to Raikkonen. Nevertheless, despite well-voiced comments about possible floor damage (Mercedes subsequently detected none and Hamilton at one stage was the fastest man on track).

Vettel, meanwhile, made the most of clear track to open a healthy lead immediately. From 1.9s at the end of the first lap he was 3.4s to the good a lap later and opened the gap to as much as 6.0s on lap 10 and again on lap 14, before Bottas found his rhythm and began chipping away.

He cut the Ferrari’s advantage to 4.4s as Vettel began to run into trouble with blistering and thermal degradation of his left front tyre, which does the most work at Silverstone. Mercedes covered that by bringing Bottas in the next lap, so the gap remained at 4.4s when they had both resumed. But now Vettel was asked to do more tyre management, and the race was beginning to come back to Bottas as he cut the gap to 2.4s just before Ericsson crashed.

That set up those glorious final laps, with the Ferraris on fresh tyres and each Mercedes running ahead of an SF71H. Mercedes believed that Vettel would be a big threat to begin with over the final 19 laps, but that his soft tyres would soon lose their edge whereas Bottas’ mediums would remain consistent.

The Finn’s defence of the lead was extremely robust, so much so that Vettel wisely took a breather, but once he had regrouped and duped Bottas into believing he had shot his bolt, he suckered him with a brilliant lunge down the inside at Brooklands corner on the 47th lap, and suddenly it was all over.

As Bottas faded further, falling prey to both Hamilton and Raikkonen as his tyres were finished, Hamilton on slightly fresher mediums pushed after Vettel. But though he could stay ahead of Raikkonen despite his inferior rubber, the world champion got nowhere near Vettel.

Might it all have been different without the incident on the opening lap? Perhaps, but Hamilton’s observation over the weekend was that a revised floor brought specially for this race had given Ferrari another three-tenths of a second. So, no sooner had their own upgrades, which included the new 2.1 spec engine, put Mercedes back on top in France and Austria (before unreliability intervened), Ferrari’s latest upgrade brought the red cars dramatically back into contention.

Hard on the heels of the best race thus far this season comes Vettel’s home race, at Hockenheim in a fortnight. It’s also Mercedes’ home event, and the signs are that they have a lot of work to do if they aren’t to be subjected to another defeat there. With Hungary coming a week later still and traditionally suiting Ferrari, the silver arrows must keep bringing their own developments if they are not to confer a psychological advantage on their rivals as they head into the summer break at the end of the month.