The odds don’t lie: I’m betting on Joe Biden for president

The Democrats could lose all the swing states and still win the US election

My pessimistic scenario for the US election ignores polling and also the odds, which have been consistently in favour of Donald Trump.

It gives Joe Biden 279 electoral college votes, which would see him into the White House.

I based my scenario on handing all the toss-up states to Trump. That means he would carry North Carolina, Arizona, Florida, Maine’s second district, Iowa, Georgia, Ohio, and obviously Texas.

Note that the pre-debate polling gave Biden an advantage in all but the final two.

The Democrats’ odds of victory are currently trading at about 1/2, which is about where they were when I last wrote one of these columns and translates to an implied probability of 67 per cent.

The forecast put together by the statistical gurus at FiveThirtyEight, which is based on polling data, gives Biden an 87 per cent chance. That gives you a price closer to 1/7, prohibitive to all except those with substantial funds who are willing to place very big bets for low returns.

Betfair ambassador Paul Krishnamurty splits the difference. He says he feels Biden should be more like 1/5.

Either way, you should back him at 1/2. You’re not going to get rich doing that, but as things stand it’s still easy cash and I would expect the odds to come in closer to election night, as the big money floods in for the favourite as it often does. This presupposes no major move in the polling.

What I found striking was that Biden could lose all the swing states I mentioned above and still win.

My scenario has the Democrats flipping Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Nebraska’s second congressional district. In all of these Biden has a handy lead in the polling, and the odds, plus all the solid dark blue states and the closer states that Hillary Clinton won and that are leaning strongly in Biden’s direction.

Ladbrokes offers 7/1 on the Democrat securing 270-299 electoral college votes, which is worth a look based on my scenario, with a saver on 300-350 at 7/2.

Flip Florida (where FiveThirtyEight says Biden is favoured to win and the odds say it’s a toss-up) and you’re in that range. Both of Arizona (slightly favoured by the same outfit, but the odds say it’s 4/6 Biden) and North Carolina (slightly favoured by both) would also do it.

How about the debate? It saw money rolling in for Trump.

The format, with that infamous mute button, favoured him. It helped him to suppress his worst instincts. Some commentators even went so far as to call him “presidential” which is over-egging it a bit. Most punters were with them, however.

Oddschecker told me 65 per cent of the bookies offering bets via its sight cut Trump’s odds during the course of the debate, with 73 per cent of the bets by number favouring Trump. He was available at between 9/5 and 15/8 afterwards.

The move in his favour came despite a CNN snap poll afterwards, which had Biden winning.

It’s clear that a lot of punters are looking back at the last election, when Trump pulled off a surprise victory, and hoping that lightning strikes twice.

But the circumstances then were very different to today. Biden’s poll lead is much larger, and he doesn’t score anything like as negatively as Hillary Clinton did.

Looking at the markets in some of the individual states. I was interested to note Ladbrokes said Texas has been its most active, which is surprising given it’s fairly long odds-on for Trump and only the wildest of optimists really think the Democrats can turn it blue this time around.

Iowa at 15/8 for Biden (implied probability of a little above 33 per cent) is an interesting one given the polls say it’s a toss-up.

In theory, Biden is worth a look at a shade below evens in Florida, which is Paddy Power’s most active state market.

In terms of bet count, all of its action has favoured Trump. Theoretically, you should back Biden to win because, again, the price is generous compared to polls.

However, I have to confess, the thought of doing that makes me very queasy. Florida has a lot of seniors, a group swinging behind Biden, not least because of the pandemic and Trump’s poor handling of it. But this is the state where the party’s dreams go to die. They did when Bush beat Gore and results from the state also rang the bell ahead of Trump’s victory.