Brexit would mean living with all of Vote Leave's broken promises - which could sweep the Tories out of power

A vote to leave the EU next week is a vote for a right-wing Boris Johnson government which would try to deliver its land of milk and honey amid economic turmoil, a recession and a £30bn black hole in the public finances

(PA)

The mask of the Vote Leave campaign has finally slipped. For months, it insisted that it was not a government-in-waiting: it was merely making a principled stand to take Britain out of the EU, and not trying to take out David Cameron.

But after moving ahead in the opinion polls, the campaign headed by Boris Johnson and Michael Gove has got too cocky for its own good. It has revealed its alternative Queen’s Speech, with six EU-related Bills to be introduced if the country votes for Brexit next week. At various points, Vote Leave spokesmen have made a long list of promises on how to spend our EU budget contribution, including giving all of it to the NHS; abolishing prescription charges; cutting VAT on fuel bills; building hundreds of new schools; improving the railways; building new roads; and maintaining and possibly increasing EU spending on farming and scientific research. The rival Remain camp calculates that Vote Leave have spent our £10bn-a-year net EU contribution 10 times over -- even though there would be no pot of gold because, according to the independent Institute for Fiscal Studies, we would have to cut spending or raise taxes by £30bn.

How did Vote Leave respond on Wednesday when George Osborne outlined an emergency post-Brexit Budget? 57 Tory MPs threatened to vote down such a package -- and to force him out as chancellor. It was another act of shameless opportunism, since many of the 57 have until now been very keen to cut public spending. By implication, Cameron would be pushed out too if he didn’t jump first, even though the Outers claim they want him to stay.

Vote Leave’s spokespeople now use “we” in media interviews, saying that “we would spend British taxpayers’ money” on X,Y or Z or “we will continue to fund EU programmes”. Who is “we”, if not a government led by Boris? Vote Leave is supposed to be a one-off, cross-party campaign, but the cat is now out of the bag. A vote to leave the EU next week is a vote for a right-wing Boris Johnson government which would try to deliver its land of milk and honey amid economic turmoil, a recession and a £30bn black hole in the public finances.

Cameron made a fatal misjudgement when he allowed Eurosceptic ministers to campaign for an Out vote. He naively believed they would stick to a gentlemen’s agreement to talk only about the EU. He did not expect a scorched earth approach in which the Tory Outers attacked their own Government’s record on the NHS, schools, the national living wage and so on. “We didn’t think they would set themselves up as the Opposition,” one Cameron ally admitted. Downing Street is alarmed that the Leavers make promises on a wide range of fronts that they could not possibly keep, with potentially huge implications for the Conservatives. “Vote Leave is not a government, but is spraying around all sorts of pledges as though it is,” said one pro-Remain minister.

When pressed, Leavers deny they would run a right-wing government if their leading lights took power, pointing to the modernising credentials of both Boris and Gove. They may have been modernisers once. But they have found some odd bedfellows during the referendum. Outgunned on the economy, Vote Leave did what it said it would never do – join Nigel Farage in playing the immigration card. It is cynical, dangerous for community cohesion, and it is working, as Labour MPs discover to their horror on the doorstep when they try to rally support for Remain. Farage cannot disguise his glee, and makes clear he could do business with Prime Minister Boris and Chancellor Gove. The EU referendum is reuniting the right, and Boris and Gove have decided which side they are on.

“A bonfire of red tape” announced by such a government could easily mean fewer workers’ and consumer rights in the real world. Osborne made a very significant statement this week: a post-Brexit recession would hit the poor hardest. (It’s a pity he didn’t admit the same about his own austerity programme, but never mind).

Boris and Gove have crossed a line, and are prepared to say anything to win the referendum, as they may well do now. But the great expectations they have aroused for life after a Brexit vote, not least among working class voters, could not be fulfilled. The fantasy promises would melt away.

The sense of betrayal among voters who had backed Brexit would widen the gulf between the public and political class. The anti-elite campaign would become just another elite. Far from being a pivotal moment in a long period of Conservative rule, the voters could even take revenge by sweeping the Tories out of power, with Labour the most likely beneficiary.

The backlash could be worse than that over MPs’ expenses, bailing out the ailing banks, being booted out of the European exchange rate mechanism or the poll tax. All those crises could eventually be put right. If we vote to leave the EU next week, there would be no going back.

The EU referendum debate has so far been characterised by bias, distortion and exaggeration. So until 23 June we we’re running a series of question and answer features that explain the most important issues in a detailed, dispassionate way to help inform your decision.

What is Brexit and why are we having an EU referendum?

Does the UK need to take more control of its sovereignty?

Could the UK media swing the EU referendum one way or another?

Will the UK benefit from being released from EU laws?

Will we gain or lose rights by leaving the European Union?

Will Brexit mean that Europeans have to leave the UK?

Will leaving the EU lead to the break-up of the UK?

What will happen to immigration if there's Brexit?

Will Brexit make the UK more or less safe?

Will the UK benefit from being released from EU laws?

Will leaving the EU save taxpayers money and mean more money for the NHS?

What will Brexit mean for British tourists booking holidays in the EU?

Will Brexit help or damage the environment?

Will Brexit mean that Europeans have to leave the UK?

What will Brexit mean for British expats in Europe?