Tory MPs are hopeful the Budget will breathe new life into their dying Government – they will be disappointed

A new generation of Tory MPs, supported by right-leaning think tanks, has now taken matters into its own hands. The aim is to reinvent conservatism for the modern age

Andrew Grice
Friday 17 November 2017 16:41 GMT
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Philip Hammond will announce the Budget on 22 November
Philip Hammond will announce the Budget on 22 November

Next week’s Budget is seen by many Conservative MPs as the May Government’s last chance to set out a coherent vision and mission statement. No pressure on Philip Hammond then, even though he has little money to play with and no Commons majority to force through bold measures that prove controversial.

So the MPs demanding a more radical approach from the man they call “Fiscal Phil” will probably be disappointed. There will be no easy escape from the public crisis of confidence the Tories have suffered since the June election.

They are having an identity crisis too: their MPs wonder what their party is for now that voters have turned against austerity and capitalism, and the tide of ideas flows in Jeremy Corbyn’s direction. Some whisper that the Tories might even need a spell in opposition to renew themselves.

Renewal is always harder in government. There is a vacuum in Downing Street, where the dark cloud of Brexit eclipses domestic policy initiatives. Although housing will be the Budget’s centrepiece, the Chancellor admits there is “no silver bullet”. Other big issues – student funding, social care, the ticking demographic timebomb, technological change – disappear into the long grass. A paralysed government devotes what energy it has to crisis management and staying alive.

The lack of fresh thinking at the top has persuaded a new generation of Tory MPs to take matters into their own hands by launching a do-it-yourself policy review. The battle of ideas has been joined by right-leaning think tanks. The aim is to reinvent conservatism for a new age – a recognition that aping Labour will not work, as the public will vote for the real thing.

Hammond: Money spent on a no deal Brexit is money "we can’t spend on the NHS or social care"

In such a rudderless party, it might be a good idea to send for a Rudd. Amber Rudd has joined forces with the Centre for Policy Studies, co-founded by Margaret Thatcher in 1974, in a “New Generation” project to showcase ideas from Tory MPs first elected in 2015 and 2017.

The Home Secretary told its first event this week that the party needs to change “the principles and ideas that make us Conservative… to fit the modern challenges we face”. This intriguing alliance between the pro-European, moderate Rudd and the keepers of the Thatcherite flame might serve her well in a future Tory leadership contest.

Nick Boles, who co-founded the Policy Exchange think tank before becoming an MP, is asking the newbie Tories to contribute ideas to his book Square Deal, which will call for investment instead of austerity and curbs on the excesses of business. He favours a ring-fenced health and care tax based on national insurance.

George Freeman, who chairs the Conservative Policy Forum, staged a “Big Tent Ideas Festival” which was inevitably mocked as a “Tory Glastonbury” but his party needs plain speakers like him who recognise the need for fresh thinking. This week he warned bluntly that the UK could become “an old people’s home that can’t pay for itself” after a bad Brexit, and in a letter to May, he cautioned that the Tories risk being “defined as a narrow party of nostalgia, hard Brexit, public sector austerity and lazy privilege” and need to move fast to win “the new battle of ideas which is reshaping 21st century politics”. His Capital Ideas Foundation will look at housing, tuition fees, opening up utility markets to new entrants and technology to empower consumers and give millennials a stake in the capitalist system.

The new MP for the previous Labour bastion of Mansfield, Ben Bradley, has set up a group of 19 Tories who aim to appeal to young voters. He said after lobbying Hammond and Downing Street: “Austerity is grating on people and I think we need to move on from that. You can cut too far and I feel like now we need to start to invest again.”

Another bright spark, Neil O’Brien, a former aide to Theresa May and George Osborne, will launch an outreach programme in the new year to generate big policy answers to new challenges such as the internet giants, artificial intelligence and the pressure on wages created by technological change and globalisation. He believes the Tories must extend their appeal to both the working class “left behind” and young, racially diverse metropolitans who are socially liberal.

This hive of activity, which is hardly a vote of confidence in May, has so far been strong on analysis and weak on policy solutions. But it is early days and at least the Young Tory Turks are thinking about the post-Brexit era. They know that attacking socialism as a thing of the past did not work in June, since it seemed new to younger voters. They recognise that elections are a battle about the future not the past. Time may yet be on their side, as the Tories will do everything they can to avoid another election until 2022.

It might be the case that an unstoppable sea change is already under way and will carry Corbyn to Downing Street. But Labour cannot take for granted that a manifesto which won broad appeal in 2017 will prove as popular in 2022. Labour, too, will need to come up with fresh ideas to meet the challenges of today and tomorrow.

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