John Harris: It is a deal of Third World GDP proportions and looks increasingly ill-advised

Whether or not EMI have paid £80m for the next four Robbie Williams albums is a moot point: in yesterday's flurry of whispers, there was a familiar mixture of overheated journalism and PR hype.

That said, his latest record deal will place him alongside Elton John, Michael Jackson, REM and Mariah Carey – artists who, at the height of their worldwide success, signed contracts of Third World GDP proportions.

One only need look at Jacko and Mariah to appreciate the problems such munificence creates. As the former proves, outside events can take a rum turn and kill off an act's appeal. Cash also feeds hubris, which can lead to commercial disaster: earlier this year, EMI had to shell out £38m to end its contract with Carey, after a heavily hyped film-cum-album spectacular, entitled Glitter, flopped.

But relative to Williams' new contract, the Carey deal seems like the very essence of good sense. When she signed to EMI, Carey's groovesome warbling was dominating the world, and her global hegemony showed no sign of slipping; Robbie, by contrast, is still a largely European sensation, yet to make any real inroads into the US market.

I spoke to Bill Flanagan, the editorial director of the US music channel VH-1, after Williams announced his latest push into the US 18 months ago. He said: "Robbie Williams' personality and stage presence is tongue-in-cheek to a British audience but that doesn't come across to Americans. The reaction I've heard from 11 and 12-year-olds girls is, 'Why does that guy act so goofy?'"

There's a common syndrome at the heart of his failure to translate.Williams is at a stage of his career when he can indulge himself and still find domestic applause growing louder. In the US, he just looks very strange. I don't envy the people having, in the wake of last year's Swing When Your Winning, to sell Williams, who already thinks he's Frank Sinatra, to the US.

Such thoughts are not troubling EMI. But having shed 1,800 jobs over the last year, it should be acting with caution. It has already faced plenty of sobering realities: the decision, for example, to sign the ex-Spice Girl-turned-Popstars judge Geri Halliwell now looks like spend-happy folly.

In a world in which consumers are foregoing traditional ways of buying music in favour of illicitly downloading it for nothing, artists with the potential for longevity are overshadowed by fly-by-night pop acts, and the chasm between the US and UK grows ever larger.

EMI have just paid a king's ransom for a "goofy" bloke from Stoke-on-Trent who could walk down the street in New York without so much as an autograph request. Clever, eh?