Michael Brown: Tory MPs have accepted that their party is staring death in the face

'The countdown to next Tuesday is making more of them face up to the need for dramatic reform'

The words "Tory party" have taken on a new meaning during the past few weeks with the emphasis on partying rather than politicking. Tory MPs are – literally – punch drunk as the rival leadership camps ply their prospective supporters with champagne and canapes. Last night it was the turn of David Davis to use his charm offensive at a party, held for him by Lord Forsyth of Drumlean on the Lords Terrace for a final push to get him into the second ballot after next Tuesday's ballot of the 166 MPs entitled to vote.

So far the numbers I have collected, on the basis of formal declarations and those, spied by me, at press launches, power breakfasts and other such receptions look like this: Portillo 38; Duncan Smith 23; Clarke 20; Davis 16; Ancram 12. That leaves 57 MPs undeclared. Of the latter it is difficult to know how they will vote. Several are whips who hide behind the Trappist vow of silence and grandly say that they are neutral. Self-interest, however, will guide their final choice as they work out which is most likely to reward them with minor jobs. Three of them receive an official salary and may be anxious about their futures. Then there are the two deputy speakers plus the senior officers of the 1922 Committee who, because they will conduct the parliamentary ballot, cannot declare their intentions publicly.

What is clear is that Mr Portillo will go on to win the subsequent parliamentary ballots and make it to the final run-off in the ballot of party members. The two big questions, after Tuesday's first round, will be whether Mr Davis decides to fight on if Mr Ancram is eliminated, and whether the ultimate second name going forward to party members will be Mr Clarke or Mr Duncan Smith.

The weakness of the system of only allowing two names to go forward to the wider membership is bound to be called into question if Mr Clarke is not included in the final run-off. Be prepared for cries of foul from the constituency chairmen on behalf of party members if it is Portillo versus Duncan Smith. The system was designed by William Hague with the probability, three years ago, that he might have faced a leadership challenge. Not much thought was given, then, to the possibility that MPs could contemplate voting off a candidate with popular appeal to the party members. Already there have been mutterings in some constituencies that the system prevented Ann Widdecombe from even getting to the starting blocks when it was clear she had a sizeable block of support in the country.

One the other hand, MPs are plainly concerned to ensure that whoever wins the final wider ballot has the confidence of a significant number of MPs. Mr Clarke, should he ultimately win, will probably not have been supported by a majority of MPs. He would be the first Conservative leader, in such circumstances, not to have the confidence of a majority in the parliamentary party.

The contest threatened to turn nasty last week but a calmer atmosphere seems to have descended in Westminster during the past few days. Mr Portillo rightly made great play of stating publicly that all the candidates should behave with decorum while his backbiters were variously describing Davis as "Neanderthal", Ancram as "an old duffer" while challenging Duncan Smith's army record.

These actions were, I suspect, done without Mr Portillo's approval and he seems to have intervened to stop these unhelpful freelance operations. The sight of Stephen Sherbourne, close friend of Mr Portillo and former political secretary to both Sir Edward Heath and Margaret Thatcher, slipping unnoticed into the Portillo camp may have had something to do with this. Mr Sherbourne is one of the wiliest, charming and diplomatic of former political advisers. If Mr Portillo wins he should ask Lord Bell, of Bell Pottinger, to loan him the services of Mr Sherbourne to run the office of the Leader of the Opposition and mend the broken fences.

At last there are welcome signs that, in spite of the July heat and the heavy presence of an excess of alcohol, MPs are tiring of the overpowering lobbying and blandishments and are thinking carefully of the future survival of the party – rather than which candidate is most likely to give them a decent frontbench job. Most MPs seem to have accepted the argument, made with varying degrees of strength that, in the words of Mr Portillo, the Tory party could be facing death unless drastic action is taken.

This could account for the fact that Mr Ancram's campaign has had the most difficulty in taking flight. He offers the gentlest of change and promises a period of reflection before accepting the case for thoroughgoing reform. His candidacy offers stability and unity and the minimum of pain and has its attractions. But although Tory MPs may not yet have felt the delayed shock of their traumatic second defeat, the countdown to next Tuesday is making more of them face up to the need for dramatic reform. All the other candidates offer this to varying degrees. Mr Portillo recognises, most dramatically, the scale of the problem and he is a middle-aged man in a hurry with his political biological clock ticking away. He is desperate, having suffered the trauma of defeat and put up with hell in his attempt to claw his way back to the top, to see government office again. Between him and Mr Ancram the other three candidates offer distinct policies of reform.

But it is Mr Portillo who is setting the pace of change. And therein lies his problem when he makes his pitch to the antediluvian association members – average age 65. They still worship at the altar of Norman Tebbit and Baroness Thatcher. Mr Portillo is determined, once and for all to exorcise their ghosts. "Maggie, Maggie, Maggie: out, out, out" will be his unspoken cry if he wins. There will be a symbolic, gauntlet challenge to the likes of Lord Tebbit, who will have to bite their lips or face terrible consequences if they endorse or repeat comments such as those made on race or asylum by the former MP, John Townend.

Whether many Tory MPs are asking the question "who do Labour most fear as opposition leader?" will become clear when we see the results after the first parliamentary ballot on Tuesday. Some say Labour fears Clarke, others Portillo. Labour is certainly prepared for a Portillo leadership – hence its investment during the recent campaign on posters depicting Mr Portillo as "Mr Bust" alongside Mr "Boom" Hague. Whether Tory members, are yet prepared for Portillo remains uncertain.

mrbrown@pimlico.freeserve.co.uk