Najam Sethi: Pakistan could be plunged into anarchy if it fails to back America

The "terrorists", "freedom fighters", "jihadis" ­ call them what you will ­ chose their targets for their symbolic value. The World Trade Centre as a symbol of US capital, the Pentagon as a symbol of US muscle and the State Department as a symbol of America's government. Together, they define the soul of America, one that has now been bruised beyond reckoning. There is, clearly, no "shield" against human suicide squads.

As Americans grieve, elsewhere in the world battered groups, communities and countries ­ ranging from the angry jihadis of the Islamic world and the displaced Palestinians in the Middle East to sanction-burdened Iran, Iraq, North Korea, Libya, Afghan-istan, and even Pakistan ­ strain to hide their true emotions: "The bully on the block has met its comeuppance."

So far, no group has validly claimed responsibility for the attack. But Western commentators, politicians and even philosophers are straining at the leash to join in a "clash of civilisations" by starting a "hunt" for Osama bin Laden and his Islamic jihadis in those countries such as Afghanistan that are accused of harbouring or facilitating him.

Once the shock of the tragedy is replaced by the rage of wounded pride seeking a swift and terrible retribution, the politicians and generals will start pushing buttons and all hell will break loose. Saner voices, explaining the origins of rising anti-Americanism in patently unjust policies in certain situations and countries, and advising restraint, dialogue and diplomacy, are likely to be drowned in a wave of raw human passion.

As each potential target of American wrath holds its breath, Pakistani policy makers might be advised to take urgent stock of the situation. I have long argued that General Pervez Musharraf should not become too complacent in power and pointed out the pitfalls of his Afghan policies.

Before last week's attacks, I wrote: "The travails of the Afghan people and the turmoil in Kabul under the Taliban continue to cast their shadow over Pakistan. But the Islamabad establishment refuses to account for the mounting costs of this relationship to Pakistan ... This strategy may seem terribly clever but it is all too obvious. At best it will prolong the painful economic status quo and stunt Pakistan's rebirth as a creative and modern nation. At worst, it might hasten the Talibanisation of our country and precipitate a showdown with the West when its patience runs out."

That patience may have run out on 11 September. If the Americans demand the Taliban hand over Mr bin Laden to them, the Taliban will probably refuse. Washington will then expect the Pakistani government to stop playing both sides and stand by, if necessary with men and materials, to assist American action against Kabul. If the national security establishment under General Musharraf agrees, that could be the beginning of the end of its Afghan and Kashmir policies because its "Islamic" jihadis will turn irrevocably against it.

If it refuses, America may have few qualms about turning the screws on Pakistan, plunging it into economic ruin and political anarchy. In that event, Pakistan could not remain sanguine that its nuclear programme would survive developments in the region, the armed forces would be destabilised and General Musharraf's personal and political survival could not be taken for granted.

Visionary leadership is necessary to steer Pakistan to safer waters. This is no time for international bluff. General Pervez Musharraf should stake the country's future on right and rationality rather than on pride and passion.

The writer is editor of 'The Friday Times' in Lahore