After a long sleep, Old Labour is back, half-right and dangerous

Old Labour has been in a state of suspended animation for the eight years of Tony Blair's leadership. The Conservatives failed to frighten the electorate before 1997 that the left was waiting in the wings to take over once stooge Blair had won the election. Of course, the electorate was right not to be frightened. Mr Blair's control of the party apparatus was so total and the ideological and organisational resources of the left so feeble that it was incapable of quickly reasserting itself.

Yet the Tory propaganda contained a grain of truth. Old Labour was not dead, it was just sleeping. Its adherents recognised that New Labour was a tremendously successful rebranding exercise and that they would have to bide their time before their moment came. Each year, at the time of Labour conference, some of the more starry-eyed of the Old tendency think their moment is approaching. The late Barbara Castle's star turns on pensions, in particular, encouraged them.

This year, however, Old Labour really is stronger. No one doubts that Mr Blair will survive this week with government policy unchanged. The sop of a review of the private finance initiative (PFI) will change nothing. But for the first time we sense that his Government is vulnerable to pressures from the Labour Party.

The Prime Minister has already trimmed his rhetoric on Iraq. This is of a piece with his broad strategy of persuading George Bush of the practical advantages of taking international opinion with him. President Bush's conciliatory address to the United Nations earlier this month marked a sharp change in tone – one that was reflected in Mr Blair's statement to the recalled House of Commons last week. But that performance, emphasising Iraqi disarmament rather than regime change, was more doveish still, because Mr Blair knew there were a further 80 or so Labour MPs ready to rebel in addition to the 53 who voted against the Government.

Neil Kinnock – no Old Labourite he – is right to warn that Mr Blair may yet have to choose between the US and the rest of the world. On this issue, Old Labour's instincts may be more in tune with those of the British people than the Prime Minister's "article of faith", as he put it last week, that Britain should always stand with the US.

This is the key to Old Labour's revival. On health and education, the trade unions are making some headway among the voters with the simple proposition that public service is good, private profit bad. Because the PFI is complicated, people fall back on an easy suspicion of profiteering.

Mr Blair does not need The Independent to tell him that this is where dangers lie. Of course, there is public support for much of what Old Labour stands for: sympathy for trade unions, high taxes and a tendency to pacifism. But each cause must be tempered by the insights of New Labour: that unions are a vested interest; that high public spending must not simply be swallowed up by state monopolies; and that an ethical foreign policy sometimes requires military action abroad.

New Labour's great strength was its depth of understanding of public opinion. The key to its survival is how effectively it can respond to the fact that the natural unpopularity of a long-lasting government will make the old prescriptions seem more attractive.

The real threat to Mr Blair's Government comes not from the delegates in the hall in Blackpool but from the signs of growing unease which they fitfully and imperfectly reflect from the people outside.