A revised Spanish constitution would peacefully resolve pleas for separation

The more Madrid tries to avoid that scenario, the greater the chances of the vote going towards Catalonian independence

Mr Rajoy seems to be a slow and reluctant student in matters of Catalan politics (Reuters )

How to deal with an unruly, unpredictable and – above all – highly media savvy independence movement? The government of Mariano Rajoy in Spain provides something of an object lesson in how not to do it.

The latest general election in Catalonia, confirming the popularity of pro-independence parties and showing no great enthusiasm for the conservative People’s Party, didn’t go Mr Rajoy’s way, but it does at least represent a first step in the normalisation and calming of Catalan politics, even as Carles Puigdemont carries on with his publicity stunts and self-imposed exile in Brussels.

Ever since the Catalan administration called its illegal and flawed referendum earlier this year, the Spanish authorities have hardly put a foot right. They allowed Mr Puigdemont and his allies to portray themselves as political prisoners, or even martyrs; they took Catalonia’s autonomy away with the stroke of a judge’s pen; and they continue to assert Spain’s unitary status and recite a constitution that contains no provision for secessionist movements, as if the constant incantation of the relevant articles would simply make the whole Catalan affair just disappear.

These fresh elections, called by Mr Rajoy in an attempt to bring his troublesome region under control, provided some calm and order to the situation. What happens next is difficult to judge, as Mr Puigdemont, predictably, has promptly escalated his demands for talks with the Spanish government, insisting that they be held outside Spain, for example, and preferably at a location of Mr Puigdemont’s choosing. Such posturing is not new and does him no favours, though it seems to play well with his own supporters.

Wherever these talks take place they should be aimed at finding a settlement through further devolution of powers to Barcelona. Yet, sooner or later, there will be renewed demands for a referendum on Catalonia’s future constitutional position. The more Madrid tries to avoid that scenario, the greater the chances of the vote going towards independence, and certainly the more repressive a policy Madrid adopts, the more chance there is that Catalans sympathetic to staying in Spain will be alienated.

This is the lesson of history, particularly of Spanish history. For decades under the fascistic Franco regime all of Spain’s historic provinces and regions had their distinct language, culture and political power suppressed, and yet all have survived, with peoples more determined to assert their democratic right to self-determination (including the continued terrorism in the Basque country).

So the obvious answer to Madrid’s dilemma is for Spain to revise its constitution and to provide for a peaceful lawful method to resolve pleas for separation. In that case Madrid would hold all of the moral high ground and some of the low ground too. An independence referendum in Catalonia would be legal, but it need not be exactly binding, and the arrangements surrounding it can be designed by the Spanish government, not to skew the result but to ensure that at least the much quieter forces of Spanish unity are given fair say in the media and not intimidated by the Catalan government itself.

Independence in Catalonia is not an overwhelmingly popular cause, as it might appear from the large public demonstrations, and it is perfectly possible to defeat it. But it will require the kind of cunning that Mr Puigdemont seems to possess in abundance, while Mr Rajoy seems to be a slow and reluctant student in matters of Catalan politics. He needs to up his game, and fast, if he wants to save his job and his country.