How scared should the Tories be of Reform UK?

The local election results show that the impact of Reform UK on British politics is growing. Sean O’Grady looks at what its rise could mean for an already beleaguered Conservative Party

The party has made significant progress without having Nigel Farage as its formal leader (Getty)

Though it is left with few councillors, let alone running any local authorities; no metro mayors, no elected police commissioners, and still no elected MPs, it is arguably Reform UK that has emerged from the latest round of elections as the happiest with the results. From polling around 5 per cent about a year ago, and only being formed from the previous Brexit Party in 2020, it is polling around 13 per cent nationally now, and has enjoyed some remarkable recent electoral success.

The party very narrowly missed clinching second place in the Blackpool South by-election, on 16.9 per cent of the poll – its best in this parliament, and at least in line with expectations. Though performances varied a good deal in the council seats Reform fought (only one in seven or so were contested), the party turned in a fairly impressive showing in Sunderland and in the Lincolnshire police and crime commissioner contest.

Less impressive were the showings in, say, Hartlepool, which was contested in the last general election by party leader Richard Tice. He won a respectable 25.8 per cent in 2019, but none of his candidates managed to win a ward there this time round.