Can we really predict Oscar winners? Here’s what the science says
Study reveals the factors that predict which Oscar nominees will win
- Research indicates that Oscar winners in major categories can be predicted with 69 per cent accuracy, based on factors like Golden Globe wins and prior nominations, though past acting winners are less likely to win again.
- Winning an Oscar significantly boosts US box office earnings for films and actors, with nominations also having a positive impact, though the effect can vary internationally depending on genre.
- An 'Oscar-worthy format' exists, favouring genres like war movies and biographies with specific plot elements; films using this format see financial success if nominated, but large losses if not.
- Success at the Academy of Motion Picture Awards is influenced by industry networks, and Oscar winners do not always align with films considered among the 'best movies of all time'.
- The 'Oscar curse' theory is largely disproven, as winners generally live longer and achieve greater professional success, though male best actor nominees and winners show higher divorce rates.