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John Curtice: Local elections show Labour support is in free fall

Britain's Prime Minister Keir Starmer speaks with staff members during a visit to a defence contractor in Bedfordshire on May 2, 2025. (Photo by HENRY NICHOLLS / POOL / AFP) (Photo by HENRY NICHOLLS/POOL/AFP via Getty Images)
Britain's Prime Minister Keir Starmer speaks with staff members during a visit to a defence contractor in Bedfordshire on May 2, 2025. (Photo by HENRY NICHOLLS / POOL / AFP) (Photo by HENRY NICHOLLS/POOL/AFP via Getty Images) (POOL/AFP via Getty Images)
  • Leading pollster Sir John Curtice describes the recent local election results as "devastating" for the Labour Party, with their support "in free fall," particularly in their heartlands.
  • Curtice suggests Reform and the Greens have capitalized on Labour's declining support, and these voters are unlikely to return to Labour soon. He also notes Labour MPs may now fear Reform and Nigel Farage more than the Conservatives.
  • Labour's vote share dropped significantly, with losses averaging nine points overall and a dramatic 19 points in their core constituencies. Disappointment with Labour's performance in office is cited as a key factor.
  • Luke Tryl, executive director of More in Common, warns the Conservatives have only 12 months to turn their fortunes around or risk becoming irrelevant. He highlights the loss of key council seats and the challenge of rebuilding their base.
  • Paul Bristow, newly elected Tory mayor for Peterborough and Cambridgeshire, urges his party to end infighting and focus on rebuilding their brand. He emphasizes the need for individual politicians to establish their own profiles and connect with voters.
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