Scientists identify key tipping point when bird flu could cause a pandemic in humans
How bird flu could cause a pandemic in humans
- Indian researchers have developed a computer simulation to model the potential spread of a mutated bird flu virus (H5N1) if it were to jump to humans.
- The simulation, named BharatSim, modelled the interactions of nearly 10,000 people in Namakkal district, a significant poultry hub in south India.
- Findings indicate that quarantining infected individuals is the most effective method for controlling human-to-human transmission, provided it is implemented when as few as two people are infected.
- The model suggests that a mutated bird flu virus could begin spreading to tertiary contacts within just two days of initial human infection.
- Researchers stress that early intervention is crucial, as once community transmission is established, more drastic public health measures such as lockdowns and mass vaccination become the only remaining options.