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Serrano vs Hardy betting tips:
Undisputed world featherweight champion Amanda Serrano will put her belts on the line when she faces Heather Hardy in Dallas this weekend.
Bookmakers have priced her as the overwhelming favourite to prevail in this bout, which will serve as the co-main event of the Jake Paul vs Nate Diaz card.
Serrano has an impressive 44-2-1 professional record, and she has not been beaten at featherweight since losing to Frida Wallberg back in 2012.
She beat Hardy via a unanimous decision at Madison Square Garden four years ago and that could give her a psychological edge in this fight.
Hardy followed up that defeat by losing to Canada’s Jessica Camara, but she bounced back with consecutive wins against Calista Silgado and Taynna Cardoso over the past year.
That improved her record to 24-2, and it earned her an intriguing rematch against Serrano, a seven-weight world champion, at American Airlines Center this weekend.
We have analysed the fight below and provided the reasoning behind our Serrano vs Hardy betting tips. As always, bookmakers will be offering free bets when you open up a new account, so consider your options if you intend on following our boxing tips.
Serrano vs Hardy tips: Bet on fight to go the distance
Thirty of Serrano’s 44 wins have come by way of a knockout, which is a very impressive hit rate for a featherweight fighter.
That explosive power has earned her the nickname The Real Deal, and it has helped her beat a series of elite opponents over the years.
However, Serrano’s last five fights have gone the distance. She retained her WBC, WBO, and IBO female featherweight titles with a unanimous decision victory over Yamileth Mercado in 2021, and she then outpointed Miriam Gutierrez later that year.
Serrano stepped up to lightweight to fight Irish superstar Katie Taylor at Madison Square Garden last year, but she lost on a split decision.
It was just the second defeat of her career, and her first loss since 2012, but she has since beaten both Sarah Mahfoud and Erika Cruz on points since returning to featherweight.
Meanwhile, Hardy’s last 10 fights have gone the distance. She lost to Serrano and Camara by unanimous decision, but she won her other fights on points.
She has never been stopped during her career, which began in August 2012, which suggests that she is made of stern stuff.
Yet online bookmakers Parimatch are offering 4/6 on this fight ending with a stoppage while Bet365 go 11/10 on it going the distance.
Hardy is now 41 years of age, so perhaps the oddsmakers feel that she will struggle to keep going for 10 rounds against a younger, tougher opponent.
Yet she is a tough, highly experienced fighter, and she withstood an absolute pummelling when these women met in 2019, so there is every reason to think she can take this one to the judges’ scorecards.
Alternatively, you can back over 8.5 rounds at odds of 5/6 with Parimatch, which covers you in case Hardy suffers a late knockout.
Boxing tips: Back Serrano to outclass her veteran opponent
The first bout between these fighters was a total mismatch, as Serrano ran riot against Hardy in the opening rounds.
The Puerto Rican pugilist began the fight at a blistering pace, and Hardy was left reeling after taking some serious punishment in the opening rounds.
Yet the American fighter displayed grit and courage to hang in there, and Serrano eventually slowed down as the fight wore on.
Hardy lacked the technical ability or the power to cause her any damage, so Serrano cruised through the second half of the fight.
The judges scored it 98-91, 98-91 and 98-92 in favour of Serrano. She did not knock her opponent down, but she won eight of the 10 rounds in comfortable fashion.
It is, therefore, easy to see why The Real Deal is the 1/22 favourite with Bet365 and 1/16 to win this rematch.
There is no value on that market, as the prospect of risking £22 or £16 just to win £1 is unappealing, but you can find far better odds by checking out the ‘Method of Victory’ market.
Serrano to win by knockout, TKO or DQ is best priced at 7/10 with Unibet, while you can find 11/8 on her winning on points.
The longer odds available on another points win for Serrano look attractive, as it may be difficult for her to really hammer home her dominance in the two-minute rounds.
It bears repeating that Hardy has never been knocked out, and that Serrano’s last five matches have gone the distance.
If you think that run will finally come to an end this weekend, you can consider hedging with a bet on Serrano to win in rounds 6-10 at 39/20 with Unibet.
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Last Updated: 14th March 2024, 07:22 AM
