Oscars 2016: Our predictions for who will win... and who should win

DiCaprio aside, it's a reasonably open field.

The usual awards race discussion has taken a bit of a backseat this year, due in part to the media emphasis on the diversity debate but also because, well, it hasn’t really been the best year for film.

Someone has to win these damn statuettes though, so who will it be?

Here’s a look at the best bets, dark horses and the personal favourites of our film team, for the major categories:

Best Picture

The Big Short

Bridge of Spies

Brooklyn

Mad Max: Fury Road

The Martian

The Revenant

Room

Spotlight

Who will win: Spotlight. The bookies might be backing The Revenant, but it would be incredible if the Academy gave the top prize to Iñárritu two years in a row, especially given few would argue that Birdman wasn’t vastly superior to it.

Who should win: Room was a wonderful surprise but perhaps lacks that ‘big movie’ feel necessary for the prize. Spotlight was enthralling but feels a bit worthy, more of a pat on the back for good journalism than good filmmaking. It might be nice to see the incredible ambition of Mad Max: Fury Road recognised here, but I’d like to see it go to The Big Short. It trod the line between comedy and drama perfectly, managed to make complex finance engrossing, and arguably lampooned the banking sector better than The Wolf of Wall Street did.

Best Actress in a Leading Role

Cate Blanchett, Carol

Brie Larson, Room

Jennifer Lawrence, Joy

Charlotte Rampling, 45 Years

Saoirse Ronan, Brooklyn

Who will win: Brie Larson.

Who should win: Brie Larson. We’re all in agreement over here on that one. The other nominees are phenomenally talented, but Blanchett’s role mostly involved smoking seductively, Joy failed to really make a splash and Rampling was superb but surely an outsider. Don’t entirely count out Saoirse Ronan though.

Best Actor in a Leading Role

Bryan Cranston, Trumbo

Matt Damon, The Martian

Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant

Michael Fassbender, Steve Jobs

Eddie Redmayne, The Danish Girl

Who will one: Leonardo DiCaprio, and not because this is his best performance (I can think of at least three or four that were better) but because the Academy knows he’s due it. Being ‘owed’ an Oscar isn’t a guarantee you’ll get it, but among a fairly weak field it seems almost certain this is his year. Who are they going to give it to, Matt Damon for cracking dad jokes on Mars?!

Who should win: Leonardo DiCaprio. Let him have it! Fassbender and Cranston’s performances were solid and Redmayne’s was very skilful, but he got the ‘well done, you transformed yourself’ award last year.

Best Actress in a Supporting Role

Jennifer Jason Leigh, The Hateful Eight

Rooney Mara, Carol

Rachel McAdams, Spotlight

Alicia Vikander. The Danish Girl

Kate Winslet, Steve Jobs

Who will win: Alicia Vikander, because everyone loved Ex Machina too and it’s sorely missing from the main Oscars categories.

Who should win: Alicia Vikander. Jennifer Jason Leigh wasn’t really given that much to do in The Hateful Eight and Rooney Mara’s Carol role was hugely divisive - wonderfully still for some, blankly mute for others.

Best Actor in a Supporting Role

Christian Bale, The Big Short

Tom Hardy, The Revenant

Mark Ruffalo, Spotlight

Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies

Sylvester Stallone, Creed

Who will win: Sylvester Stallone. It’s a fairly open field, but Hollywood loves a ‘veteran bringing back the magic’ narrative.

Who should win: Tom Hardy or Christian Bale. The former’s performance was more restrained than DiCaprio’s in The Revenant, but in my opinion better - Fitzgerald was a brilliantly cruel and selfish antagonist. Bale really nailed social awkwardness and anxiety without overdoing it in The Big Short though, and you yearned for him to be on screen more.

Best Animated Feature Film

Anomalisa

Boy and the World

Inside Out

Shaun the Sheep Movie

When Marnie Was There

Who will win: Inside Out looks to have this sewn up, everyone loves a Pixar movie that also packs an emotional punch for adults.

Who should win: Anomalisa. Maybe it wasn’t executed perfectly, but an adult-orientated stop-motion animation was such a brave idea and a welcome return for Charlie Kaufman, who frankly could really use the award.

Carol, Ed Lachman

The Hateful Eight, Robert Richardson

Mad Max: Fury Road, John Seale

The Revenant, Emmanuel Lubezki

Sicario, Roger Deakins

Who will win: The Revenant. You have to put quibbles with the soul of the movie to the side for this category, and there’s no denying Lubezki made it look absolutely beautiful, especially that wonderfully, oddly balletic battle scene. An argument recently erupted among cinematographers over deceptive CGI in films like The Revenant however.

Who should win: The Revenant. Although Carol was beautifully shot too.

Best Director

Adam McKay, The Big Short

George Miller, Mad Max: Fury Road

Alejandro G. Inarritu, The Revenant

Lenny Abrahamson, Room

Tom McCarthy, Spotlight

Who will win: Inarritu. Everyone seems to love the lengths that he went to in the freezing cold to make this film happen. Even if his crew don't.

Who should win: George Miller. Inarritu was thoroughly deserving for Birdman, an absurdly original and genius piece of filmmaking for so many reasons, but revenge thriller The Revenant felt overly familiar. Mad Max: Fury Road may not have the chops for Best Picture, but it would be great to see Miller recognised for reinvigorating the franchise and then some, creating some of the most spectacular visuals ever put on the big screen.