The planet's future: Climate change 'will cause civilisation to collapse'
Authoritative new study sets out a grim vision of shortages and violence – but amid all the gloom, there is some hope too
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The report praises the web, which it singles out as 'the most powerful force for globalisation, democratisation, economic growth, and education in history'
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An effort on the scale of the Apollo mission that sent men to the Moon is needed if humanity is to have a fighting chance of surviving the ravages of climate change. The stakes are high, as, without sustainable growth, "billions of people will be condemned to poverty and much of civilisation will collapse".
This is the stark warning from the biggest single report to look at the future of the planet – obtained by The Independent on Sunday ahead of its official publication next month. Backed by a diverse range of leading organisations such as Unesco, the World Bank, the US army and the Rockefeller Foundation, the 2009 State of the Future report runs to 6,700 pages and draws on contributions from 2,700 experts around the globe. Its findings are described by Ban Ki-moon, Secretary-General of the UN, as providing "invaluable insights into the future for the United Nations, its member states, and civil society".
The impact of the global recession is a key theme, with researchers warning that global clean energy, food availability, poverty and the growth of democracy around the world are at "risk of getting worse due to the recession". The report adds: "Too many greedy and deceitful decisions led to a world recession and demonstrated the international interdependence of economics and ethics."
Although the future has been looking better for most of the world over the past 20 years, the global recession has lowered the State of the Future Index for the next 10 years. Half the world could face violence and unrest due to severe unemployment combined with scarce water, food and energy supplies and the cumulative effects of climate change.
And the authors of the report, produced by the Millennium Project – a think-tank formerly part of the World Federation of the United Nations Associations – set out a number of emerging environmental security issues. "The scope and scale of the future effects of climate change – ranging from changes in weather patterns to loss of livelihoods and disappearing states – has unprecedented implications for political and social stability."
But the authors suggest the threats could also provide the potential for a positive future for all. "The good news is that the global financial crisis and climate change planning may be helping humanity to move from its often selfish, self-centred adolescence to a more globally responsible adulthood... Many perceive the current economic disaster as an opportunity to invest in the next generation of greener technologies, to rethink economic and development assumptions, and to put the world on course for a better future."
Scientific and technological progress continues to accelerate. IBM promises a computer at 20,000 trillion calculations per second by 2011, which is estimated to be the speed of the human brain. And nanomedicine may one day rebuild damaged cells atom by atom, using nanobots the size of blood cells. But technological progress carries its own risks. "Globalisation and advanced technology allow fewer people to do more damage and in less time, so that possibly one day a single individual may be able to make and deploy a weapon of mass destruction."
The report also praises the web, which it singles out as "the most powerful force for globalisation, democratisation, economic growth, and education in history". Technological advances are cited as "giving birth to an interdependent humanity that can create and implement global strategies to improve the prospects for humanity".
The immediate problems are rising food and energy prices, shortages of water and increasing migrations "due to political, environmental and economic conditions", which could plunge half the world into social instability and violence. And organised crime is flourishing, with a global income estimated at $3 trillion – twice the military budgets of all countries in the world combined.
The effects of climate change are worsening – by 2025 there could be three billion people without adequate water as the population rises still further. And massive urbanisation, increased encroachment on animal territory, and concentrated livestock production could trigger new pandemics.
Although government and business leaders are responding more seriously to the global environmental situation, it continues to get worse, according to the report. It calls on governments to work to 10-year plans to tackle growing threats to human survival, targeting particularly the US and China, which need to apply the sort of effort and resources that put men on the Moon.
"This is not only important for the environment; it is also a strategy to increase the likelihood of international peace. Without some agreement, it will be difficult to get the kind of global coherence needed to address climate change seriously."
While the world has the resources to address its challenges, coherence and direction have been lacking. Recent meetings of the US and China, as well as of Nato and Russia, and the birth of the G20 plus the continued work of the G8 promise to improve global strategic collaboration, but "it remains to be seen if this spirit of co-operation can continue and if decisions will be made on the scale necessary to really address the global challenges discussed in this report".
Although the scale of the effects of climate change are unprecedented, the causes are generally known, and the consequences can largely be forecast. The report says, "coordination for effective and adequate action is yet incipient, and environmental problems worsen faster than response or preventive policies are being adopted".
Jerome Glenn, director of the Millennium Project and one of the report's authors, said: "There are answers to our global challenges, but decisions are still not being made on the scale necessary to address them. Three great transitions would help both the world economy and its natural environment – to shift as much as possible from freshwater agriculture to saltwater agriculture; produce healthier meat without the need to grow animals; and replace gasoline cars with electric cars."
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Comments
So why the low priority given to discussion of population control?
I can only stress what others have said here world population is the real enemy not the unproven rubbish expounded in books and articles by many people with various axes to grind.
Remember always: 1950 - world population 3 billion - today 6.7billion - all well within my lifetime.
You don't believe me ? - Google it.
http://www.actahort.org/books/118/118_2
The 2009 meltdown of the Arctic is one of the greatest in history:
From NSIDC
'July 6, 2009
Melt season in high gear
The Arctic is now in the midst of the summer melt season. Through most of June, ice extent tracked BELOW the 1979 to 2000 average, and slightly above the levels recorded during June 2007. Warm temperatures and southerly winds led to quickly declining ice concentration in some regions, such as the Laptev Sea.'
This is occuring at a time when the Sun is at an extraordinarily low point in its cycle.
sustainable growth???
Why do journaists continue to insist on presenting the public with oxymorons? There is no such thingas sustainable growth. Natural systems (which are the only systems which are sustainable in the long run) are all STEADY STATE systems.
The oil supply has peaked (and here are NO viable altrernatives), many minerlas are at or near peak (inclusing phophorus needed to keep the industrial agricultural system functioning), and water crises are emerging all over the world. Hence 'civilisation' is in the early stages of collapse anyway.
Failing to deal with climate change just means we will have a largely uninhabitable planet after civilisation has collapsed.
Misinformation has much in common with the legendary hydra: it doesn't matter how many times it is cut off, it just 'regrows'.
I would imagine that these 'latest report' exponents and believers here in these columns are on benefits thus don't give a sh*t - all par for the course for the green brigade of neo-crackpots.
Free condoms, vasectomies and sterilisation worldwide, it won't solve the problem but it might help just a little.
That may explain the Unites States falling into fascism by allowing fascist gang stalker protection reackets to openly and notoriously stalk, harass, poison and irradiate people.
http://www.google.com/search?hl=en&client=firefox-a&rls=org.mozilla:en-US:official&hs=I59&num=100&ei=t01ZSr7XMp-ntgeV3uHdCg&sa=X&oi=spell&resnum=0&ct=result&cd=1&q=%22gang+stalking%22&spell=1
Let's see now... Who is sponsoring this "report"?
Hmmm...
Backed by a diverse range of leading organisations such as Unesco, the World Bank, the US army and the Rockefeller Foundation,
Three Rockefeller groups and the US Army... And they call this "diverse?"
Get clue, people!
YOU - ARE- BEING - TAKEN - FOR - A - RIDE...
The sky is NOT falling.
The only thing that is falling is the average IQ of the braindead sheeple who believe this horsesh*t..
For Heaven's Sakes, this is just one more Rockefeller-generated "environmental report" a la the ridiculous Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports, which is designed to scare the bejeesus out of us, so that we'll endorse a global carbon exchange system and a global tax, which he and his globo-banker buddies will scoop right up and stuff into their own bulging pockets.
Have you no critical thinking skills at all!?
During two field seasons of enrichment with cotton (Gossypium hirsutum) as the test plant, enrichment to 550 ppm CO2 resulted in significant increases in photosynthesis and biomass of leaves, stems and roots, reduced evapotranspiration, and changes in root morphology. In addition, soil respiration increased and evapotranspiration decreased.
None of us can personally check all the facts. We rely on the media to provide us with true information but if there is one thing we can all agree on it is that the media cannot be trusted. Perhaps it's not so surprising then that there still remain so many sceptics.
Evolution has hard-wired certain survival traits in the human race including acquisitiveness, the desire for wealth and growth in our communities. While this has been an essential trait in our evolutionary journey from the savannah, it will prove to be ultimately self-destructive in a world of finite resources.
Politicians know what counts at election time: "It's the economy, stupid!". But we can hardly blame politicians for the propensities of the electorate. When will we ever hear a politician stand up and declare that growth is bad for us? What benefit the pursuit of wealth if it burns the planet?
Last century we saw the defeat of communism, the triumph of democracy and capitalism. But can we now recognise that unfettered growth and "progress" is potentially disastrous? How are we to rein in our entrepreneurs, those captains of industry that our society elevates and rewards so richly? It requires a profound and counter-intuitive change in our behaviour. It requires that society governs itself with a new restraint through comprehensive regulation, it requires that we put the needs of the community before the freedom of the individual. A bit like communism in fact.
Population must be controlled. How ironic that the only country to have taken any real steps in this direction is China, home to the last vestiges of communism, enforcers of the much-vilified yet far-sighted "one child policy".
Clever thing, this "evolution" - so capable is it of conducting such a huge orchestra. One may as well sit back until 'it' evolves in us the trait of credulity; credulity so strong as to remove from us the natural horror evoked from reading the above sentence.
Toolan
To deny that the issues are real though is blind madness. The evidence is there for your own eyes to see.
Have deniers never sensed pollution? Are their eyes cellotaped and noses plugged? Have they never entered a major city after being in the countryside? Why are deniers so against the ideas of investing our next stage of "growth" into cleaning up our living spaces instead of making more toys?
Even if you don't believe in the warming (of which there is ample evidence), surely now it's time to clean up the planet and begin the adjustment to sustainable living. The later we leave it the more impossible it will be.
The problem is over-population is multiplied by the waste we create. The waste levels are the easiest change - it just needs strong leaderhip, direction and motivation. Population will be controlled by itself. We have to accept that the Bell's curve will run its course.
Frankly it is becoming clearer every day that climate change is not happening which does not mean we should not husband scarce resources just that we need to stopping acting as if the end is nigh.
Governments delight in the doom and gloom because it gaves them a splendid opportunity to increase ever greater controls over and taxes on us .
For some years, the scientific community has reported that passive smoking is a danger to health. Those who would deny this found themselves in a small and dwindling minority. The dangers of passive smoking are now widely accepted as fact and smoking has been banned indoors.
A smoker might make the case that he should be free to endanger his own health in whatever reckless manner he chooses. But the debate over whether he should be free to poison other people is currently settled. People have a right to breathe clean air, to the extent that is still possible.
When you argue that you should be free to pollute and consume resources at a self-determined rate, regardless of the risks to the environment, you are like a smoker in the room.
We're going to have to give up some of our cherished rights and freedoms, for our own good. Even if we don't like it.
The new GEO as proposed will try to freeze the status quo - the instigators of this report fully wish and expect the rich to remain rich and the poor to remain poor.
Yes - radical change in the GEO IS required - but not in the way the US Army and Rockefeller would like....
And also - a lot of Green Talk is really so much hot air - Greens are in the main self-centred selfish people who are afraid of losing their privileged lifestyle - therefore they want to pull up the ladder after themselves so that the poor cannot join them.
Mr Alex Weir, Gaborone and Harare
Ben from http://idigibuzz.com
The time for action was 50 years ago, when M King Hubbert gave his first warning (53 years ago actually). Five decades of stupidity are about to be paid for.
There will be plenty of change, but not of the kind the uninformed ******s who contribe to the comments are anticipating.
You could produce your own climate report. Unburdened by data or scientific analysis, you should be able to dash one off quite quickly. Problem solved.
Now is better than never even if we missed the boat yesterday. More people need to be worried about the solution rather than going on about the problem. Change can still happen, but time is running out.
Ben from the domestic wind turbine hub.
To my mind the only way this is likely to happen if the people who doubt climate change so much find themselves unable to cope as it happens, they would then pick on the people who had the wherewithal to make sure they were prepared for this happening. I am already self-sufficient and I would survive with my family quite well, I would also be happy to share how to do this with anyone who wanted to be prepared, and also would make sure I had enough to share within reason with the silly people that hadn't bothered to at least try to save themselves.
I read the population argument, you won't have to worry too much about it if Climate change accelerates even more, and we we haven' taken up the challenge to change our ways, we are all likely to die anyway.
What do you suggest we do to keep populaton down, depending on your own age what would you like Euthanasia of old people, young people why of course your ideas would be to put all people of colour and religion other than yours down wouldn't you?
The population argument is just another form of racism.
Instead expending energy whinging all the time, try doing something to help yourselves and the planet, it really isn't difficult.
you might be surprised at how many old people are quite capable of not putting themselves first and not averse to stepping off this poor old planet to give younger folk a better chance; the pity of it is that far too many of those younger folk of today (and i think you might be one of them?) are completely ignorant of any concept of putting others' needs before their own needs - or even before their own wants...
scientists know the truth. the sun is getting hotter. it goes in cycles. this is all about new taxation to keep us minions where they want us for gawds sake. wake up and smell the roses. we, as humans, contribute less than one tenth of one per cent of the so called pollution and harm to the ozone layer. why not tax countires with active volcanoes? there's a start.
propoganda, propoganda and more propoganda by the multinationals by way of their corporate owned media outlets, to earn more money by way of deceit. dont but it. its all bollocks
They do react to fear as the nanny state encourages fear to percipitate a state of easy to control dummies.
Im no dummy it's crap.