Total warns about 'inaccurate' oil prices
Thursday 11 October 2012
With the fires from the Libor scandal still burning, the temperature is rising in the oil markets amid mounting concerns that this could be the next of the City's dark corners to blaze into life.
The majority of those involved subscribe to a strict code of omertà that any Mafia don would be proud of. Except that it has recently come to light that French oil giant Total has broken the code by telling regulators that prices can be incorrect, with the clear implication that they could be subject to manipulation.
Iosco, the International Organisation of Securities Commissions, which acts as umbrella body for the world's financial watchdogs, has been investigating the market but recently backed away from imposing tough new rules.
That may leave it exposed to savage criticism if a scandal does emerge. In response to an Iosco questionnaire, Total indicated that the same kind of games over pricing exposed in the Libor market could take place in the crude oil and other energy markets.
What's more, that could have a knock-on effect in other markets.
In its submission, Total says: "The published prices do not always represent those of the market with the same degree of accuracy... As well, the quality of the reporting is not always consistent over time. While certain PRAs (price reporting agencies) have pricing processes that are reproducible using the underlying data, others do not (the principal difference being the use of "judgement" that may bias prices away rather than toward the market)." The key word being bias.
There is more: "We encounter, several times a year, estimates of market prices on key indices that are out of line with our experience of the day."
The real worry for outsiders could be this: "The increased penetration of oil in financial investment portfolios ... suggests that a sudden and massive shift in oil markets could propagate into other markets."
The oil industry dismissed suggestions of anything sinister.
The oil futures market is not as big as some: about $250bn (£156bn) a day is turned over in oil futures markets, about two billion barrels a day.
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