Market Report: Nomura recommends shorting Barclays
Wednesday 04 March 2009
Latest in Sharewatch
On Facebook
Barclays registered another session in the red last night, falling by almost 7 per cent after Nomura advised investors to short the lender's stock.
The broker expressed concern about prospects for the bank's participation in the Government's asset protection scheme, which insures lenders against further losses on toxic assets for a fee. "With the Government pressuring it to join the [scheme], a further equity issue to fund the insurance premium is a genuine concern in our view," Nomura said, reiterating its "underweight" stance on the stock.
Traders said the warning chimed with the general feeling in the market, where investors, rattled by the size of the HSBC rights issue, are increasingly focusing on the need for capital in the wider sector.
The concerns sent Barclays down by 5.9p to 81.8p, its third consecutive session of losses.
Overall, the London market refused to rebound, with the FTSE 100 falling by 3.14 per cent or 113.7 points to 3,512. Taken together with Monday's 5.3 per cent loss, the blue chips as a whole are on track to record one of their worst ever weekly performances. The FTSE 250 proved more resilient, losing 9.7 points to 5,850.7.
Anthony Grech, a market strategist at IG Index, said that although the economy was not going to deteriorate for ever, and while at some point the markets were bound to turn again, "at the moment, there is just no compelling reason for investors to start buying".
"For the FTSE 100, the 3,250/3,300 low from 2003 is still the area that everyone is watching. On current form, we may not have to wait too long to see if this proves to be the line in the sand for the UK index," Mr Grech added.
Besides the negative read-across from early losses on Wall Street, much of the damage last night was down to the heavily weighted commodities stocks, which eased in response to the uncertain demand outlook.
Cairn Energy, the India-focused oil and gas explorer and producer, was among the hardest hit, falling by 7.4 per cent or 141p to 1,757p, while BG lost almost 6 per cent of its value, or 56.5p, to close at 893.5p.
News from BP, which was down 4.3 per cent or 18.2p at 404.5p after scaling back its near-term plans for oil and gas production growth, also bore on sector sentiment.
Elsewhere, Wolseley was 4.3 per cent, or 7.4p, behind at 161p following reports that, after being rumoured to be on the verge of tapping shareholders for cash for months, the construction materials group may finally launch a rights issue as early as tomorrow. Numis Securities said a rights issue without any definite action on the company's troubled US subsidiary, Stock Building Supply, was unlikely to be successful as "stock is bleeding earnings and cash".
The broker added: "The continued erosion of the share price in the absence of management action to date to repair the balance sheet implies that a meaningful rights issue would now require a two-for-one [issue at a 50 per cent discount] to raise £1.1bn."
Numis also weighed in on Cattles, reiterating its "sell" recommendation on the sub-prime lender, which slumped by 40.3 per cent, or 2.1p, to 3.1p after the issuing another profit warning, revealing that an internal audit had uncovered problems in the way it accounts for souring loans, and announcing the suspension of senior staff at Welcome Financial Services pending the outcome of an inquiry.
Keller, the construction services group, was 10.8 per cent or 57p weaker at 470p after Citigroup reduced its target price for the stock to 525p from 580p. "The US fiscal stimulus plan is not expected to have a material impact in 2009," the broker said.
"Keller is not exposed to maintenance work and it is unlikely new build work will start before 2010," Citigroup added. "There are significant opportunities in Saudi Arabia, but contracts are increasingly difficult to close. Crossrail represents an opportunity in the UK, but is unlikely to [bring benefits in] 2009."
On the upside, Ultra Electronics was 3.3 per cent, or 38p, stronger at 1,169p after Deutsche Bank switched its stance on the stock to "hold" from "sell".
Commenting on the company's recent results, the broker said that although 18-20 per cent of group revenues were exposed to economically sensitive markets, "the ongoing good prospects for much of its defence business allied [with] a full-year contribution from recent acquisitions should ensure Ultra can deliver good growth in 2009."
Stocks in the housebuilding sector rallied, with traders attributing the movements to Persimmon's recent successful renegotiation of its borrowing facilities. Persimmon was up 8.1 per cent or 28.2p at 375.5p, while Redrow, which was the focus of stake-building by its founder and former chairman Steve Morgan, surged 11.1 per cent or 15p to 150p.
The smaller housebuilding sector peer Taylor Wimpey was 2.7 per cent or 0.5p stronger at 18.5p.
Among smaller companies, Elixir Petroleum slumped to 1.7p, down 26.3 per cent or 0.6p, after the oil and gas group said that it was going to cancel its listing on London's Alternative Investment Market.
Get midday market updates at independent.co.uk/sharewatch
- 1 Apple admits it has a human rights problem
- 2 Lightning kills an entire football team
- 3 Now The Sun tries to call in its favours from Downing Street
- 4 I was born to be a killer. Every night I see the Devil in my dreams
- 5 Amanda Knox set to break her silence – and pocket a fortune from book deal
- 6 Israel blames Iran for embassy bomb attacks
- 7 BBC to issue global apology for documentaries that broke rules
- 1 Spotify: 1 million plays, £108 return
- 2 Apple admits it has a human rights problem
- 3 Kate Allen: It's time for America to put an end to this shameful scandal
- 4 Lightning kills an entire football team
- 5 I was born to be a killer. Every night I see the Devil in my dreams
- 6 Now The Sun tries to call in its favours from Downing Street
- 7 BBC to issue global apology for documentaries that broke rules
- 8 Mona Lisa's 'twin sister' is discovered – 500 years late
- 9 Rhodri Marsden: What we like and what we don't like are often closer than you'd think
- 10 Modern lovers: The 'sexual body warriors' and pioneers transforming 21st-century relationships
Free trial of new Independent iPad app
Get your daily dose of the best of British journalism, sponsored by American Airlines
Win a three-week coastal jaunt
Spend three weeks exploring every nook and cranny of gorgeous Atlantic Canada.
Amazing restaurant offers
Three glasses of free champagne and a special menu at 46 top London restaurants.
Latest Independent competitions
Win anything from gadgets to five-star holidays on our competitions and offers page.
Commercial thought leaders
Watch the best in the business world give their insights into the world of business.
Career Services
Day In a Page
No secularism please, we're British
Working as a jail torturer ruined my life
New Arsenal face an old question of credibility in San Siro




Comments