Grand National 2014: how to pick a winner according to Cambridge mathematician's formula
William Hartson has created a winning formula for which horse to back at the Aintree Grand National
A Cambridge mathematician believes he has created a formula to predict the Grand National winner – and has backed the racehorse owned by Mike Tindell as the champion of this year's race.
William Hartson has revised a formula he initially devised for the Grand National last year and named 12-1 favourite Monbeg Dude as the horse he believes will win.
Mr Hartson, a former international chess champion, has been working on the formula for a year after betting company William Hill asked him to mathematically analyse the winners of the Grand National and select a champ with the best chances of emerging victorious.
“I’ve amended it this time to improve it because it didn’t quite give us a winner last time," he said, after incorrectly predicting that horse Seabass would win last year.
Mr Hartson explained: “Not knowing anything about horses, I started by looking at list of all of the winners of all of the Grand Nationals that have ever been run.
"I found certain patterns in the names of winning horses. Basically it boils down to one thing - well a couple of things maybe - which is that the winning horse ideally will begin with the letter M and have eight or 10 letters."
To calculate the winner, Mr Hartson scored factors including the bookies' odds, the horse's name, its age, the letters in the owner's name, and the letters and number of words in the horses' names. This year he also included the name of the horses' trainer.
For example, he pointed out that a jockey with a name beginning with K has never won the Grand National, a factor he believes may explain why he failed to predict the winner last year.
"The horse was ridden by Katie Walsh. It's because her name begins with K. She didn't stand a chance, poor thing."
“There’s one horse that fits the criteria better than anyone else, which is Monbeg Dude," he said. "It begins with M and has ten letters, so it’s perfect."
Kirstie Allsopp has waded into the female fertility debate again
...and it wasn't caused by an asteroid crash, as first thought
- 1 Snoop Dogg and Jared Leto buy a stake in Reddit as A-list invests $50m
- 2 Prince held a Facebook Q&A and this is the only question he answered...
- 3 35,000 walrus gather on north-west Alaska beach 'for a rest'
- 4 Brad Pitt, on the moment he completely lost his temper with Clint Eastwood's son
- 5 A teacher speaks out: 'I'm effectively being forced out of a career that I wanted to love'
Snoop Dogg and Jared Leto buy a stake in Reddit as A-list invests $50m
Prince held a Facebook Q&A and this is the only question he answered...
Amal Alamuddin: Human rights lawyer's legal chambers upgrades website following George Clooney wedding
Brad Pitt, on the moment he completely lost his temper with Clint Eastwood's son
Stephen Fry: Girls who had sex with rock stars at 14 wouldn't call themselves victims – they were proud of it
Former Tory donor Arron Banks ups his Ukip donation to £1million following William Hague 'nobody' comment
Exclusive: 'Putin's Russia has been my biggest regret,' says Nato's outgoing Secretary General
The Osborne Ultimatum: Chancellor’s benefits freeze bombshell will affect ten million households
There’s no excuse for Dave Lee Travis’s behaviour, but we need to keep a sense of proportion
Should gay sex be illegal? 16% of Britons think so
Mark Reckless becomes second Tory MP to defect to Ukip in a month
- < Previous
- Next >
£35000 per annum: Ashdown Group: To be considered for this position you will n...
£110 - £130 per day: Randstad Education Reading: We have opportunities for Cov...
£110 - £130 per day: Randstad Education Reading: Maths Teacher required to tea...
£25000 - £30000 Per Annum Excellent benefits: Clearwater People Solutions Ltd:...