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Risk of becoming victim of crime at 27-year low

By Nigel Morris, Home Affairs Correspondent
Friday, 25 January 2008

 

Alamy

The risk of becoming a crime victim is now at its lowest for more than 25 years following a sharp fall in the number of offences reported to police.

But a 9 per cent drop in the overall crime rate was marred by a 21 per cent rise in drug offences and a 4 per cent increase in gun crime.

Just days after Jacqui Smith, the Home Secretary, admitted she would not walk alone in London at night, ministers will be keen to point to an 8 per cent fall in violent attacks.

The continuing fall in the crime rate was revealed in the number of offences reported to police and in the British Crime Survey (BCS), which is based on interviews with the public.

Crime levels have been dropping since the mid-1990s, but there are signs that the fall is again gathering pace. The Home Office said the chance of a member of the public suffering any crime in a year was now 23 per cent, the lowest on record since the BCS was launched in 1981.

Police in England and Wales dealt with 1,240,800 offences in July to September last year, a fall of 9 per cent on the 1,359,100 reported to officers in the same period in 2006.

They included 253,100 violent attacks (down 8 per cent), 20,000 robberies (down 17 per cent) and 14,400 sexual offences (down 9 per cent). Police investigated 67,000 burglaries (down 8 per cent), 163,800 cases of car crime (down 12 per cent), 288,200 thefts (down 6 per cent) and 250,100 offences of criminal damage (down 11 per cent).

On the downside, police recorded 55,700 drug offences, a huge increase of 21 per cent. The Home Office said the rise coincided with the reclassification of cannabis from a class B to class C substance, which allowed officers to issue on-the-spot cautions instead of prosecuting offenders.

Separate figures showed that police recorded 10,182 firearms offences for the year ending in September, an increase of 4 per cent on the previous 12 months. But the rise mainly involved incidents in which no one was injured, or in which a gun was used simply to threaten.

The number of deaths from gunshot wounds fell from 55 to 49, and the number of serious injuries dropped from 438 to 368.

According to BCS calculations, 10,736,000 crimes were committed in Britain in the 12 months between October 2006 and September 2007. That is a 4 per cent fall overall and includes a drop of 2 per cent in violent attacks, of 4 per cent in car crime and of 4 per cent in vandalism, but a 5 per cent rise in burglary.

Ms Smith said: "These latest crime figures contain some excellent results and I am particularly pleased that the risk of being a victim of crime is now at a historically low level. Police- recorded violence against the person, robbery and burglary have fallen considerably compared with the same period [July to September] a year ago."

But David Davis, the shadow Home Secretary, accused the Government of failing to get to grips with drug-fuelled crime. He said: "Drugs wreck lives, destroy communities and are a major symptom of our broken society. The Government's complacency shows they are part of the problem, not the solution."

Chris Huhne, the Liberal Democrat home affairs spokesman, said: "Police should be devoting more time to stop-and-searches for knives and guns, and the Government needs to clamp down with a major new effort to stop gun smuggling.

"Nine times more officials are allocated to tackling cigarette smuggling than gun smuggling, which is a crazy set of priorities."

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38 Comments

The crucial issue is reported crime. My nephew was mugged and relieved of £80 and his mobile by an 8 strong gang of black youths on Friday night. He wasnt hurt and didnt report it. So that offence wont appear in any statistics.

Posted by A. Hughes | 27.01.08, 19:52 GMT

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In the number of offences REPORTED to police, thats the rub. A lot of crime goes unreported because people feel they are wasting their time, as in a lot of cases they would be

Posted by Alan | 27.01.08, 10:29 GMT

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Has anyone tried actually reporting a crime to the police recently? It is almost impossible to get in touch with them, and when you do finally get through to them, they don't want to know about it. All you get is a pink sheet of paper with a crime reference number, and a letter through the post a few weeks later saying they don't consider it to be in the public interest to spend money doing anything about it.

That is the real reason reported crime is falling, not because actual crime levels are lower.

Perhaps if the police were to spend less time filling in forms and more time walking round the streets, we might be a bit safer.

Posted by Jonathan Bryce | 25.01.08, 21:36 GMT

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Do the journalists who wrote this article and, more worryingly, the Leader, actually have a modicum of intelligence between them? As has been said by many below, a drop in crimes reported to the police does not equal an equivalent reduction (or indeed a reduction at all) in the risk of being a victim of crime. The clincher is the leader-writer's contention that it is the ignorance of the public fostered by the tabloid press that has led to the public's "dangerous" view that crime is rising. What is far more dangerous is a tabloid newspaper masquerading as a serious broadsheet. The Daily Mail's monopoly on that position appears to be under serious threat judging by this journalism.

Posted by Laurence | 25.01.08, 21:24 GMT

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Hello, the fall in house burglery and car crimes hasn't dropped it has got bigger, people don't call the police because it is a waste of time . If you ring the police to report a crime that is it the phone call is where the report stops.
Maybe if someone with a bit of clout like you you might be able to have a go at changing things, as poor Joe public gets no where.
Thankyou,
Yours faithfully,
Lez Simpson

Posted by Lez Simpson | 25.01.08, 21:12 GMT

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The reason there is a 27 year low of crimes is quite simple we do not report crime anymore
What is the point of reporting a crime when the police do not respond.
When I was working I stopped reporting thieves [shoplifters].
I stopped them, took the goods from them, then kicked them out.
It was quicker than waiting for 1. the phone to be answered and 2. for any response from the police. I hung on the phone 23 mins to report a drunk who was banned from driving when it was answered and I gave the car reg I was told well he will be home now and we cant do anything about it........
My neighbour had her car broken into twice in 4 weeks. Amazingly about a month later a couple of police officers walked down our road I stopped them and asked what was being done about the breakins. They were unaware any car had been damaged - and they were the local bobbies, they are not notified of any details like that!

Posted by Mags | 25.01.08, 20:58 GMT

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Wow!, This is great news, crime is falling so fast that it was surely disappear completely within the lifetime of this government.

ps, I'm talking about 'recorded crime' of course ! :(

Posted by Lodger | 25.01.08, 20:50 GMT

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The police have targets to reduce the number of "recorded" crimes. They are therefore incentivised to find a reason not to record as many crimes as they can. Note that "recorded crimes" are not the same as "reported crimes". After a crime is reported to them, the Police then decide whether to "record" it as a crime. Although there are Home Office guidelines on which things should be "recorded" as crimes, there is much scope for fudging matters.

The problem here is the target culture, particularly using one target which can easily be measured as a proxy for the true target (which is often difficult to measure). We are using "recorded crimes" as a proxy for "actual crimes". This is the same sort of problem as the train companies running trains on time by making passengers miss them. What is measured is better, but what actually happens is worse.

Posted by Peter Quinn | 25.01.08, 20:00 GMT

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Orwell's nightmare vision comes upon us apace: first the war is peace venture into Iraq and now double speak. If the people of this country believe that it is a safer place than it was 27 years ago, then they deserve the government they have. there are lower statistics for two reason: the police don't investigate what used to be called serious offences, such as assault; and many people don't bother reporting crimes because they have developed a world weary cynicism with regard to 'troubling' the police.

Posted by david | 25.01.08, 18:30 GMT

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I note it's REPORTED crimes that are down; could that have anything to do with people feeling too cynical to bother reporting crimes because they have no confidence in detection or punishment?

Posted by Andy | 25.01.08, 17:55 GMT

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