GDP growth revised down after worse-than-expected performance in construction and manufacturing
Gross domestic product growth in the third quarter is forecast to be revised down by the ONS to 0.9% from 1% in the first estimate
Monday 26 November 2012
Britain's dramatic economic bounce-back between July and September is set to be trimmed tomorrow after a worse-than-expected performance in construction and manufacturing.
Gross domestic product (GDP) growth in the third quarter is forecast to be revised down by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) to 0.9% from 1% in the first estimate.
The initial estimate, unveiled last month, was the fastest rate of quarterly growth in five years and marked the end of the longest double-dip recession since the 1950s.
But economists warned the figure was flattered by one-off effects such as the Olympic boost and clawed back output lost in the previous quarter from the Diamond Jubilee.
And recent sector data for September, which was not included in the ONS's first estimate, revealed a surprisingly weak performance for construction and manufacturing.
Victoria Clarke, economist at Investec Securities, expects the estimate to be revised to 0.9%.
But she added: "We judge that there is potential for a larger than typical revision and therefore plenty of scope for surprise in the figures next week."
Experts warned the underlying picture will remain the same, regardless of any revision, with the economy still far below its peak in the first quarter of 2008.
The third quarter had one more working day than the previous quarter, due to the Queen's Diamond Jubilee, which would have affected the estimate, the ONS said.
Meanwhile, the London 2012 Olympics and Paralympic Games also impacted economic activity in the third quarter.
Looking further ahead, growth is expected to fall back sharply between October and December amid a series of weak purchasing managers surveys for services, manufacturing and construction industries.
Bank of England governor Sir Mervyn King recently warned output could even shrink in the fourth quarter.
Howard Archer, chief UK and European economist at IHS Global Insight, said: "While the third-quarter GDP growth was encouraging and welcome news, the UK is by no means out of the economic woods and further relapses remain a very real possibility.
"Indeed, it is looking increasingly questionable whether the economy will grow in the fourth quarter."
Arsenal strengthened their grip on a top-four finish with a straightforward 3-0 win over Hull City.
Easter egg hunt horror as mother finds dead body under deck of house
Missing Malaysia Airlines Flight MH370: Wreckage could be found within a week as search reaches 'very critical juncture', says minister
Unbeliebable: The White House offer 'no comment' to anti-Justin Bieber petition
Loch Ness Monster found on Apple Maps?
Royal Tour 2014: Is the Duchess of Cambridge the only person ever to climb into a fighter jet wearing a dress and high heels?
The food poverty scandal that shames Britain: Nearly 1m people rely on handouts to eat – and benefit reforms may be to blame
Scottish independence: It is the English who should be on their knees, begging the Scots to vote ‘No’
Nigel Farage fatigue? Half of voters ‘immune’ to Ukip’s appeal
'Sinful': Video of British Muslims dancing to Pharrell Williams's hit Happy comes under attack
Nigel Farage: I’m taking on the status quo, and the Establishment’s fighting back
Refugee facing deportation from Sweden saved by fellow passengers refusing to let plane leave
- 1 Easter egg hunt horror as mother finds dead body under deck of house
- 2 A bottle of wine a day is not bad for you and abstaining is worse than drinking, scientist claims
- 3 Unbeliebable: The White House offer 'no comment' to anti-Justin Bieber petition
- 4 Loch Ness Monster found on Apple Maps?
- 5 How We Met: Alison Moyet & Emma Kennedy: 'I knew we'd be friends because she was happy to make a prat of herself'
£150.00 per week: QA Apprenticeships: This company is a company that specializ...
£153.75 per week: QA Apprenticeships: This company is an innovative outsourcin...
£150.00 per week: QA Apprenticeships: This company has been providing on site ...
£150.00 per week: QA Apprenticeships: We've been supplying best of breed peopl...