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The four utterly contradictory polls that tell the story of this election and why it is pointless trying to predict the outcome

Neither the Tories nor Labour can sustain a consistent lead in the polls, as four published in a day prove

Tuesday 28 April 2015 05:44 BST

Ed Miliband said David Cameron was partly to blame for migrant crisis (AFP/PA)

Four polls published on the same day have shown just how close and unpredictable this election campaign is.

Both Labour and the Conservatives were hoping to have opened up a consistent lead in the polls by now, but neither party is experiencing anything that resembles a trend.

This roller-coaster ride in the polls is repeated every day and is likely to continue for the next nine days before polling day.

These four charts show why it is simply pointless trying to predict what will happen on May 7.

This last poll will not only send jitters to Labour, but also to Ukip. Nigel Farage's party has dropped by two points from last week's Lord Ashcroft poll and suggests David Cameron's strategy of trying to win back Ukip defectors by warning of the danger posed by a Labour/SNP pact is working.

In pictures: Experts' predictions for the General Election - 26/04/15

Show all 10

1/10In pictures: Experts' predictions for the General Election - 26/04/15

In pictures: Experts' predictions for the General Election - 26/04/15

Andrew Hawkins (ComRes)

“This is an election of wild promises and political cross-dressing; so no differentiation, no breakthrough, no majority. The most likely outcome is Ed Miliband in No 10 because only he will be in a position to work with enough parties (that is, the SNP) to form a workable government.”

Andrew Hawkins

In pictures: Experts' predictions for the General Election - 26/04/15

Joe Twyman (YouGov)

“As each day passes and the Conservatives fail to increase their vote share, the likelihood of Ed Miliband becoming PM (albeit still with a minority) grows. That’s due to the continued performance of the SNP in Scotland and former Lib Dem voters propping up Labour in England.”

In pictures: Experts' predictions for the General Election - 26/04/15

Ben Page (Ipsos MORI)

“A better week for Ed Miliband than for David Cameron – personal ratings improving, and the betting markets moved in his favour. The poll numbers have him ahead by a whisker which, combined with the electoral maths, makes him more likely to be able to form some kind of government on the raw numbers right now. However, Cameron will be hoping for a 1992 moment when ultimately voters can’t quite bring themselves to try someone else – and 38 per cent of voters still say they may change their mind.”

In pictures: Experts' predictions for the General Election - 26/04/15

Rick Nye (Populus)

“The Populus/Hanover Predictor has Ed Miliband ending up as Prime Minister in more than five out of six simulations we run.”

In pictures: Experts' predictions for the General Election - 26/04/15

Nick Moon (GfK)

“Tories most seats, SNP 45 or more, Ukip fewer than five: minority Labour government.”

In pictures: Experts' predictions for the General Election - 26/04/15

Damian Lyons Lowe (Survation)

“Ukip’s vote share is prone to be squeezed, benefiting the Conservatives, while the SNP’s onslaught on Labour continues. Based on three UK/Scotland polls, I am upgrading the Conservatives and the SNP, and downgrading Labour. Both the Lib Dems on 30 seats and Ukip on 5 to 10 remain unchanged.”

In pictures: Experts' predictions for the General Election - 26/04/15

Michelle Harrison (TNS)

“Still no change, but Nicola Sturgeon goes from strength to strength in Scotland. For me, who the biggest party is will hinge on the crucial marginals. But what ultimately wins – safety first, for the Tories, or Labour’s ‘get out the vote’ ground war?”

In pictures: Experts' predictions for the General Election - 26/04/15

James Endersby (Opinium Research)

“Our poll today shows a one-point Tory lead, statistically a tie. It’s going to be incredibly tight. Labour and the Tories would do well to be negotiating with the smaller parties behind the scenes. In the likely event of a hung parliament, we’ve been testing various combinations of coalition. Labour teaming up with the Lib Dems would be more popular than with the SNP, which in turn would be more popular than a Tory/UKIP scenario.”

In pictures: Experts' predictions for the General Election - 26/04/15

Martin Boon (ICM)

“Not much going on really, and no reason to change my mind. Tories by a couple of points.

In pictures: Experts' predictions for the General Election - 26/04/15

Lord Ashcroft (Lord Ashcroft Polls)

He refuses to make predictions. “My polls are snapshots, not predictions.”

Rex

The Independent has got together with May2015.com to produce a poll of polls that produces the most up-to-date data in as close to real time as is possible.

Click the buttons below to explore how the main parties' fortunes have changed:

All data, polls and graphics are courtesy of May2015.com. Click through for daily analysis, in-depth features and all the data you need. (All historical data used is provided by UK Polling Report)

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