Labour in crisis: What happens next?

An astonishing renaissance

The Prime Minister rides out the summer and comes out with a series of eye-catching policy announcements. The Tories now come under serious policy scrutiny, Labour's poll rating rises to more than 30 per cent and the threat of a leadership challenge fades. The economy recovers by 2010 and Labour wins a fourth term.

Odds: 10–1

The men in grey suits pay a visit

The unhappiness continues into the summer, and in September Jack Straw, or another Cabinet "grey suit", tells Gordon Brown that it's time to go. He is persuaded to depart quietly and there is an orderly transition, with a leadership contest between two candidates, likely to be David Miliband and Mr Straw.

Odds: 5–2

Status quo prevails, poll disaster follows

Ministers and MPs decide it's better to stay with Mr Brown than risk another change of leader. None of the credible candidates wants to risk standing because they would have to call a general election, which Labour would probably lose. Mr Brown limps on to 2010 and Labour loses anyway. Mr Miliband becomes Labour leader while in Opposition.

Odds: 5–1

A bloody coup

Backbench MPs and ministers start to break cover in September and publicly call for Mr Brown to go. He refuses at first, and there is infighting and disorder among Labour ranks. Mr Brown does not go quietly and eventually he is toppled, triggering a contest. Mr Miliband is the likely winner.

Odds: 3–1