Chief Secretary to the Treasury Danny Alexander, the former Scottish Secretary Michael Moore, and current Shadow Scottish Secretary Margaret Curran are expected to be among the high-profile politicians forecast to lose their Westminster seats by new polling data published today.
The highly-anticipated analysis of Scottish constituencies by Lord Ashcroft, the former Conservative deputy chairman, will back up recent polls which point to a major rewrite of Scotland’s political map. Labour’s 56-year dominance of general elections north of the border is forecast to end with a historic shift to the nationalists in May. The new poll predicts the demise of the frontline careers of many of Scotland’s current big-hitting pro-union politicians.
However, the power of the MPs Scotland will send to Westminster could be much less than their predecessors after William Hague, the Commons leader, yesterday outlined a future Tory government’s plan to give English MPs an effective veto on English-only legislation. Both Labour and the Liberal Democrats called the Hague plan “rushed” and have demanded a full constitutional inquiry.
The Ashcroft analysis is the first this year to focus on individual constituencies rather than on percentage forecasts based on limited samples of voters’ intentions. The results were described last night as a “humdinger” by Lord Ashcroft himself.
Experts' predictions for the general election
Experts' predictions for the general election
1/10 Andrew Hawkins (ComRes)
Just as the polls in 2010 pointed to no overall majority for any party, the overwhelming evidence points to Labour either being the largest party or getting a small majority, probably below 20. The Lib Dems and SNP should each win between 25 and 35 seats, with single-figure wins for both Ukip and the Greens.
2/10 Joe Twyman (YouGov)
I predict it will be close. I predict a few tremors, though earthquakes are unlikely. I predict the eventual winner may not be the direct result of public opinion, but instead the outcome of political negotiations. It’s too early to predict numbers given all the uncertainties surrounding (among other things) Ukip, the SNP and the Lib Dems. It is possible that it will be close between Conservative and Labour in terms of both votes and seats. The Lib Dems might retain 20-30 seats and the balance of power, despite small gains for the SNP, and at most half a dozen Ukip seats. Gun to my head? Labour minority government.
3/10 Ben Page (Ipsos MORI)
A mug’s game for this election months away, but my predictions in order of likelihood: most likely a hung parliament or coalition of some kind, closely followed by either a small Labour majority or an equally small Conservative majority. Given how close the parties are, the unknown performance of Ukip in key marginals, the effect of incumbency on Lib Dem losses, the final size of SNP surge and so on, to be more precise is simply foolish! Professor Tetlock, who found that forecasts by experts were only slightly better than throwing dice, weighs heavily upon me!
4/10 Rick Nye (Populus)
I can see a hung parliament, where Labour is the largest party in terms of seats – though not necessarily in terms of votes, with the Lib Dems having 30 seats or fewer, the SNP having up to 20 seats and Ukip having no more than five seats. In short, it’s going to get messy and stay messy for some time to come.
5/10 Nick Moon (GfK)
I can’t recall there ever being an election more difficult to predict than this one. I’m confident no party will have an overall majority, with the Tories probably the largest party but no single partner for a viable coalition, with the Lib Dems on 25 seats, the SNP 20, Ukip three, and the Greens one.
6/10 Damian Lyons Lowe (Survation)
We might have expected a workable Labour majority, were it not for the wild-card rise of the SNP in Scotland. Survation’s December Scottish polls suggest an almost complete wipeout by the SNP in Scotland and result in 40+ seat gains – mostly at Labour’s expense. My current predictions are: Labour the largest party by 40-50 seats over the Tories, no overall majority; Tories 235-255 seats; Lib Dems 20-30 seats; SNP 30-40 seats – maybe held back from potential support level by opposition incumbency and tactical voting by pro-unionist voters. Finally, Ukip, 5-10 wins from Conservatives, including Rochester and Clacton, and potentially a single Labour-seat surprise.
7/10 Michelle Harrison (TNS)
The battleground over the next three months is at the kitchen table – the difference between what the statistics tell us about the economy, the experience that Britons are having of managing their household budgets, and where – and if – they believe politics can make a difference. In this regard, the disconnect with the major political parties is more interesting than the horse race.
8/10 James Endersby (Opinium Research)
Our first poll for 2015 shows Labour one point ahead [see above], but polls four months out from an election are snapshots, not predictions. It would be extremely unwise for a pollster to make a firm prediction now. At the moment, Opinium’s estimate on polling day would be the Tories slightly ahead on vote share, but Labour slightly ahead on seats. These numbers are based on a uniform swing, with tweaks to Green and Ukip numbers based on local information: Labour 320 seats, Conservatives 271, Lib Dems 20, SNP 16, Plaid Cymru three, Greens two, Ukip four. A hung parliament with Labour potentially closer to a majority coalition than the Conservatives.
9/10 Martin Boon (ICM)
I’ve not recovered from the Scottish referendum campaign yet, and here we go with another wildcard strewn nail-biter. For me, Labour on 30 per cent will only fractionally nudge past their woeful 2010 showing – behind the Tories on 33 per cent – but enough to secure more seats (290 for Labour, 280 for the Tories) on boundary wackiness. The Lib Dems will secure 14 per cent of the vote and 35 seats; Ukip will also get 14 per cent, but that only gets them a couple of seats. As for Scotland, I’m bewildered, but as you asked I’ll say 30 seats for the SNP, which wipes out a breathing-space victory in seats for Labour.
10/10 Lord Ashcroft (Lord Ashcroft Polls)
Declined to take part. His spokeswoman said: “As he has said many times, his polls are snapshots not predictions.” Health warning: when The Independent on Sunday carried out a similar exercise in April 2010, at the start of that year’s election campaign, eight out of eight pollsters predicted a Conservative overall majority.
A recent poll by Strathclyde University suggested the SNP would win 45 out of Scotland’s 59 seats. Scottish Television (STV) in October last year pointed to Labour facing “annihilation”, winning only four Scottish seats.
Advisers to Jim Murphy, the recently elected Scottish Labour leader, told The Independent they did not expect the Ashcroft numbers to significantly differ from other polls which had predicted calamity for Labour in Scotland this May.
One close aide said: “This poll may in fact do us a favour, because Scotland’s voters still seem to think they can vote SNP and avoid a Tory government. The reality is different. The largest UK party will form the next government in Westminster – that message needs to get through.”
The poll will showing that five months after last September’s independence referendum, the defeated YES campaign has grown its support.
Westminster’s reaction to the referendum’s fallout continued yesterday when Mr Hague announced plans to limit the power and direct involvement of Scottish MPs in matters identified as affecting only England.
But the absence of both Labour and Liberal Democrat support for the Hague plans means nothing will happen till after the general election.
Even backbench Tory support could be limited. Under the Hague rules, the Speaker would potentially identify bills affecting only England, or England and Wales. English and Welsh MPs would then meet without Scottish MPs being present to consider the bill, and only at the final voting stage would Scottish MPs take part.
John Redwood, the former Tory cabinet minister who has been leading the fight for an England-only chamber within Westminster, said the Hague plans would give the SNP “the chance to wreck English-only laws” because of the retention of Scottish MPs right to vote in the final stage of legislation.
“Far from keeping the union together, “ said Mr Redwood, “it does more damage. It is a battering ram against the union for nationalist MPs.”Reuse content