Saddam options 'discussed a year before Iraq war'

News in pictures
News in pictures
On Facebook
From the blogs

Roy Hodgson for England: A club of one

To argue against Harry Redknapp for England is akin to arguing in favour of bankers bonuses. While s...

Time for a reality check on the Sri Lankan civil war

Sri Lanka, much like Britain, has side-lined accountability long enough.

Children Of Alcoholics week: One million children may just be the tip of the iceberg

Children Of Alcoholics week starts today. So, what are the aims for Nacoa during this important week...

Review of Being Human: ‘Being Human 1955’

Following on from an episode tinged with tragedy, this week lifted the mood with something lighter.

Suggested Topics

British officials privately discussed the prospect of "regime change" in Iraq in late 2001 - more than a year before the invasion - the Iraq War inquiry was told today.

Giving evidence on the first day of public hearings, Sir William Patey, a senior Foreign and Commonwealth Office official, said the idea of ousting Saddam Hussein had been discussed in an internal FCO paper.



However, he said it been dismissed at the time as having "no basis in law".



Sir William, who was head of the FCO Middle East Department, said he had asked his staff to look at all the options for dealing with the growing threat from Saddam.



"This is a paper I commissioned from my staff and said 'Come on, let's have the whole range of options out here'," he said.



He said it went from "'hard' containment to 'soft' containment, to the lifting of sanctions, to - I have to say - we had at the end the regime-change option - which was dismissed at the time as having no basis in law.



"It was very much an internal paper. We didn't go into how to achieve regime change."











The inquiry heard that even in early 2001, elements of the new US administration of President George Bush were already discussing the possibility of "regime change" in Iraq.

Sir Peter Ricketts, who was chairman of the Joint Intelligence Committee (JIC), said there was concern in both London and Washington that the strategy of "containment" of Saddam Hussein was "failing".



The strategy - which had been the basis of US and British policy since the 1991 Gulf War - involved sanctions combined with an offer to lift them if Saddam allowed United Nations weapons inspectors to return, and the northern and southern "no fly" zones.



Sir Peter said that by 2001 all three strands were "in trouble" due to the rise of smuggling, Saddam's growing standing in the Arab world and the increasing unpopularity of the measures in Iraq.



Britain had favoured a strengthened "smart sanctions regime" - a position initially backed by senior figures in the Bush administration like Secretary of State Colin Powell.



However he said they were aware there were other influential figures in Washington who were taking a harder line.



"We were conscious that there were other voices in Washington, some of whom were talking about regime change," he said.



He cited an article written by National Security Adviser Condoleezza Rice warning that "nothing will change" in Iraq until Saddam was gone.



Sir William added: "We were aware of these drum beats from Washington and internally we discussed it. Our policy was to stay away from that."



At the same time, Sir Peter said there was concern within the JIC that Saddam was continuing to try to acquire weapons of mass destruction (WMD).



"In 2001 we were seeing an acceleration of work on missile programmes, we saw increased Iraq efforts to secure material for the nuclear programme and we saw continuing interest in CW (chemical weapons) research and development," he said.



Following the 9/11 attacks on the Twin Towers in New York and the Pentagon in Washington, he said there had been a further hardening of opinion in the US.



"We heard people in Washington thought there might be some link between Saddam Hussein and Osama bin Laden - undocumented. I don't think we saw any evidence of it," he said.



"The tone of voice was more if there turns out to be any link between Saddam Hussein and Osama bin Laden that is going to have major implications for Iraq and Saddam Hussein."



Simon Webb, who was policy director at the Ministry of Defence, said the change in the US was "dramatic".



"The shift in thinking was to say that we cannot afford to wait for these threats to materialise. We must be ready to engage potential threats wherever they emerge," he said.



While the initial response concentrated on Afghanistan - where the 9/11 attacks had originated - Sir Peter said that, from November 2001, he began to hear talk in Washington of a "phase 2" in the "war on terror".



He said the attacks also had the effect of making the Pentagon rather than the State Department the "dominant instrument" in American foreign policy.



Mr Webb said that while there was no immediate change of policy in Washington to support regime change, that was where the policy debate was heading.



"The focus didn't shift to regime change. It shifted to the weapons of mass destruction problem which, in the case of Iraq, in order to deal with the weapons of mass destruction problem, you would probably end up having to push Saddam Hussein out of power," he said.



Sir Peter said that while the attacks had raised the "salience and prominence" of counter-terrorism and the non-proliferation of WMD in Whitehall, they did not at that stage affect Britain's policy on Iraq.



"We still had our focus on the weapons inspector route and the sanctions-type route. We had heard these noises about regime change. They weren't really impinging on the Whitehall policy debate at that point," he said.



He said that if the 9/11 attacks had not happened, Britain would continued to have pursued its policy of strengthening sanctions through the UN Security Council.



"I'm pretty sure we would have stuck to our guns on the policy we had," he said.

Independent Comment
blog comments powered by Disqus

Day In a Page

Apple admits it has a human rights problem

Apple admits it has a human rights problem

After years of complaints and workers' suicides in China the technology giant faces up to the human cost of its gadgets
Peter Moore: 'I feel guilty I'm the only one alive'

Peter Moore interview

'I feel guilty I'm the only one alive'
Sellafield faces nuclear option as overspending threatens plant's future

Sellafield faces nuclear option

Overspending threatens plant's future
Israel blames Iran for embassy bomb attacks

Israel blames Iran for embassy bomb attacks

Tehran rejects Netanyahu's 'lies' after diplomats in India and Georgia targeted
Former manager enjoying Apoel crack at the big time

Tommy Cassidy interview

Former manager enjoying Apoel crack at the big time
James Lawton: Patience may not be a virtue this time, Roman – Andre Villas-Boas looks all at sea

James Lawton: AVB looks all at sea

Abramovich's visits to training reinforce the idea of a coach feeling pressure from above and below
The 10 Best sledges

The 10 Best sledges

Not all of them require snow...
Procrastination: Not now – I'm busy

Procrastination: Not now – I'm busy

Confronting the real reasons for puttting things off can help us beat it
Fun in the sunset years

Fun in the sunset years

A new movie follows retirees moving to India for low-cost care and a culture of respect for the elderly. For many Britons, it's already a reality
Picture preview: Lucian Freud drawings

Lucian Freud drawings

Picture preview
Silent revolution at the Baftas as the French take top awards

Silent revolution at the Baftas

The Artist wins in seven categories, with Meryl Streep the other big success story
Whitney Houston: The diva who had – and lost – it all

The diva who had – and lost – it all

Nick Hasted charts the highs and lows of Whitney Houston's life
How Picasso won over (some of) the British

How Picasso won over (some of) the British

Winston Churchill and Evelyn Waugh hated his work, but Picasso provided inspiration for a whole generation of UK artists
Topshop: A Decade Of Design

Topshop: A Decade Of Design

When London Fashion Week starts on Friday, Topshop will celebrate 10 years backing its brightest young stars
John Prescott: 'My wife thought I'd just retire, but I'm not a slippers man'

'My wife thought I'd just retire, but I'm not a slippers man'

At 73, John Prescott isn't mellowing. In fact he's taking a shot at becoming a police commissioner