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General election 2015: Labour faces wipeout in Scotland as poll shows Miliband may be left with just one Scottish MP

Ed Miliband ruled out a deal with the SNP over the weekend

Monday 27 April 2015 22:04 BST

Jim Murphy, the leader of Scottish Labour (GETTY)

Scottish Labour could be left with just one Member of Parliament after the general election as a new poll shows the party slumping to just 22% of the vote.

The survey by TNS found Nicola Sturgeon’s SNP on 54% – a figure higher than any recorded for the party – with Labour hitting a new low in its former heartland.

The score for Jim Murphy’s party means Labour is down 20% north of the border since the last election, having won 42% of the vote in 2010 when it was led by Iain Gray MSP.

The SNP has a huge lead

The Electoral Calculus projection shows the SNP dominating

According to a projection by the website Electoral Calculus, the figures in the poll would give the SNP 57 of Scotland's 59 seats.

Labour and the Liberal Democrats would be left with a single MP each were the results of the poll repeated on polling day with a uniform swing.

The survey saw the SNP rise 2% and Jim Murphy’s fall 2% since the last study by the same pollster.

The poll comes after a local survey shows Scottish Labour Mr Murphy 9% behind the SNP in his own seat – meaning he could lose it on May 7.

Labour has collapsed

Labour's support has also collapsed on a vote share basis.

In January Mr Murphy told BuzzFeed News he was surprised how easy it had been to campaign against the SNP.

“I’ve been so surprised by their lack of energy," he said at the time.

The catastrophe for the party in Scotland comes despite gains in the rest of the UK.

The headline voting intention figures in the poll put Labour on 22%, the SNP on 54%, the Conservatives on 13%, and the Liberal Demorats on 6%. Ukip and the Green Party scored 2% each respectively.

Ed Miliband this weekend ruled out a deal of any kind with the SNP, saying there would be telling the Andrew Marr should he would consider “no coalition, no tie-ins, I have said no deals”.

Scottish Labour's leader could end up getting the boot

Jim Murphy set is to lose his East Renfrewshire seat.

However, the Daily Telegraph reports that a consultancy firm run by Lord Mandelson has released a document saying that Ed Miliband may have “little choice” but to do a deal with the nationalists in the event of a hung parliament.

The SNP say they will vote to remove David Cameron from Downing Street.

Nicola Sturgeon told Sky News today: "If there is a minority government, if no party has a majority, then it's simply not possible to ignore the views of other parties.

In pictures: Experts' predictions for the General Election - 26/04/15

Show all 10

1/10In pictures: Experts' predictions for the General Election - 26/04/15

In pictures: Experts' predictions for the General Election - 26/04/15

Andrew Hawkins (ComRes)

“This is an election of wild promises and political cross-dressing; so no differentiation, no breakthrough, no majority. The most likely outcome is Ed Miliband in No 10 because only he will be in a position to work with enough parties (that is, the SNP) to form a workable government.”

Andrew Hawkins

In pictures: Experts' predictions for the General Election - 26/04/15

Joe Twyman (YouGov)

“As each day passes and the Conservatives fail to increase their vote share, the likelihood of Ed Miliband becoming PM (albeit still with a minority) grows. That’s due to the continued performance of the SNP in Scotland and former Lib Dem voters propping up Labour in England.”

In pictures: Experts' predictions for the General Election - 26/04/15

Ben Page (Ipsos MORI)

“A better week for Ed Miliband than for David Cameron – personal ratings improving, and the betting markets moved in his favour. The poll numbers have him ahead by a whisker which, combined with the electoral maths, makes him more likely to be able to form some kind of government on the raw numbers right now. However, Cameron will be hoping for a 1992 moment when ultimately voters can’t quite bring themselves to try someone else – and 38 per cent of voters still say they may change their mind.”

In pictures: Experts' predictions for the General Election - 26/04/15

Rick Nye (Populus)

“The Populus/Hanover Predictor has Ed Miliband ending up as Prime Minister in more than five out of six simulations we run.”

In pictures: Experts' predictions for the General Election - 26/04/15

Nick Moon (GfK)

“Tories most seats, SNP 45 or more, Ukip fewer than five: minority Labour government.”

In pictures: Experts' predictions for the General Election - 26/04/15

Damian Lyons Lowe (Survation)

“Ukip’s vote share is prone to be squeezed, benefiting the Conservatives, while the SNP’s onslaught on Labour continues. Based on three UK/Scotland polls, I am upgrading the Conservatives and the SNP, and downgrading Labour. Both the Lib Dems on 30 seats and Ukip on 5 to 10 remain unchanged.”

In pictures: Experts' predictions for the General Election - 26/04/15

Michelle Harrison (TNS)

“Still no change, but Nicola Sturgeon goes from strength to strength in Scotland. For me, who the biggest party is will hinge on the crucial marginals. But what ultimately wins – safety first, for the Tories, or Labour’s ‘get out the vote’ ground war?”

In pictures: Experts' predictions for the General Election - 26/04/15

James Endersby (Opinium Research)

“Our poll today shows a one-point Tory lead, statistically a tie. It’s going to be incredibly tight. Labour and the Tories would do well to be negotiating with the smaller parties behind the scenes. In the likely event of a hung parliament, we’ve been testing various combinations of coalition. Labour teaming up with the Lib Dems would be more popular than with the SNP, which in turn would be more popular than a Tory/UKIP scenario.”

In pictures: Experts' predictions for the General Election - 26/04/15

Martin Boon (ICM)

“Not much going on really, and no reason to change my mind. Tories by a couple of points.

In pictures: Experts' predictions for the General Election - 26/04/15

Lord Ashcroft (Lord Ashcroft Polls)

He refuses to make predictions. “My polls are snapshots, not predictions.”

Rex

"I know that, I was part of a minority government in the Scottish Parliament. If the SNP has a large number of MPs, firstly we can use that clout to keep the Tories out secondly we can use it to make sure the Tories are replaced with something better, bolder and more progressive. I suspect Ed Miliband will change his tune once the votes are cast."

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