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The dark secrets of the trillion-dollar oil trade

Tankers full of oil its owners don't want to sell. Shady deals with brutal regimes. Vast profits. Pollution scandals. Cahal Milmo investigates a very murky business

Vessels moored near Singapore. It is now more profitable to use them for storing than transporting oil

SINOPIX / REX

Vessels moored near Singapore. It is now more profitable to use them for storing than transporting oil

With a combined capacity for 313,000 tonnes of oil, the Delta Ios and the NS Burgas supertankers were launched two months ago to criss-cross the globe in search of trade. Instead, the vast vessels were to be found yesterday lying idle off the coast of Singapore after their owners were paid by two of the world's richest and most secretive oil companies to turn them into floating petrochemical warehouses.

At first glance, the decision by Trafigura Group and Vitol Holding BV to charter the newly built ships at an estimated cost of £47,000 a day to do nothing for up to four months in South-east Asia while laden with cargos of diesel worth at least £77m per vessel makes little economic sense.

When this is combined with the fact that the Delta Ios and the NS Burgas are just two ships in an enormous fleet of tankers which are currently being paid about £80m a month by independent oil traders like Trafigura and Vitol, as well as giants such as Shell, to stay anchored around the globe with anything between 50 and 150 million barrels of redundant crude on board, it seem that the ruthless barons of black gold must be losing money as fast as they can make it.

Far from it. The phenomenon of "floating storage", which has been brought about by a huge over-supply of global tanker capacity and unusual market conditions, is just one example of the multitude of ways in which a small group of private, mostly Swiss-based companies have become adept at turning vast profits from the closed and often murky world of independent oil trading. A glut of oil caused by the recession means that crude available for immediate purchase is currently cheaper than that bought on longer-term or "future" contracts – a practice known as "contango". The result is that independent traders have been rushing to buy the cheaper "spot" oil and storing it wherever they can – namely in under-employed tanker fleets – in anticipation of a sharp rise in price as the global economy begins to recover. The resulting profit can be anything between 15 and 20 per cent – tens of millions of dollars – even after the cost of hiring a tanker is deducted.

It is a situation which prompted one senior oil company executive to declare that the spring and summer of 2009 represented "blessed times for trading". Another oil trader told The Independent: "Contango has been a real boon. The independents have become very adept at buying up tanker capacity as cheaply as possible, sitting on the stock and selling it on via arbitrage. They've been as slick as you like."

The deals are part of a world in which discretion and an ability to keep out of the public eye have long been treasured. While the oil majors such as ExxonMobil, Shell and BP operate as global corporations, the independents or "jobbers" have thrived in the grey zone of fast trading-room deals and personal contacts that allow access to lucrative oil reserves.

But increasingly the activities of the "big four" independent traders – Trafigura, Vitol, Gunvor (which has consistently denied reports that it is linked to the Russian Prime Minister, Vladimir Putin) and the hugely successful Glencore – are coming under scrutiny. Questions are being asked about their role in uniting the oil wealth of some of the world's more unsavoury regimes with the open market.

Trafigura, which until August 2006 was barely known outside the oil trade – despite growing to become one of the world's biggest companies with a turnover of $73bn (£46bn) since it was founded 16 years ago – last week found itself making headlines around the world when it agreed to pay about £30m to thousands of residents of the Ivory Coast port of Abidjan who fell ill after toxic oil waste from a ship chartered by the company was dumped by a sub-contractor near the west African city.

The settlement of the claim brought on behalf of 31,000 Ivorians at the High Court in London after tonnes of foul-smelling sludge were fly-tipped in August 2006 was said by Trafigura to vindicate its position that there was no link between the waste and people who died or suffered serious illnesses.

But the Abidjan pollution disaster shone a light into the nature of the way these multibillion-pound "jobbers" of the oil trade make their money. In the case of Trafigura, the events of August 2006 were just part of a deal conducted across three continents in which a cheap, low-quality form of oil known as coker gasoline bought from a Mexican refinery was further refined in Europe, and the subsequent fuel was sold at a profit of about $7m per cargo.

Oil industry insiders have told The Independent that coker gasoline is just one of a myriad of methods used by independent traders to turn a profit, ranging from "paper" deals struck in the City of London's trading floors, to floating storage, to what is known as "physical trading" – transporting hundreds of consignments of different grades of oil on chartered tankers looking for the best price from dozens of offices across the globe. Executives, who are frequently equity partners in the companies, speak of constant shuttling around the world to close deals and negotiate prices.

By any standards, it is a huge and profitable industry. From a situation 20 years ago where the "majors" dominated the international trade, independents now account for about 15 per cent of world's $2 trillion oil industry.

Glencore, founded in 1974 by the controversial trader Marc Rich – who was indicted for tax evasion and later pardoned by President Bill Clinton – is estimated to supply 3 per cent of the world's daily oil consumption. The company is no longer involved with Mr Rich.

Between them, the "big four" had turnovers last year of about $415bn – equivalent to the GDP of Austria. Because the companies are privately owned, comprehensive profit figures are hard to come by, but Glencore announced a profit of $4.75bn for 2008. Trafigura made $440m last year.

In an industry which deals with a commodity for which many countries have gone to war, insiders say it is inevitable that traders will find themselves dealing with authoritarian oil-rich regimes and dabbling in controversial schemes. On at least one occasion, three of the big four – Glencore, Trafigura and Vitol – have been found to have crossed the line between incentives and kickbacks through their involvement in the United Nations' oil-for-food scheme to help Saddam Hussein's Iraq buy humanitarian supplies.

In the UN's Volcker report, all three companies were cited for paying surcharges demanded by Saddam's regime to win oil supply contracts. In 2007, Vitol pleaded guilty in America to paying $13m in surcharges, and the Swiss arm of Trafigura forfeited $20m. Both companies insisted that the deals had been handled in good faith via third parties. Glencore, which was cited for paying $6.6m in surcharges, denied any wrongdoing.

Glencore was also named in a 2005 High Court judgment as one of the companies which handled shipments of oil sold by the state-owned oil company of Congo-Brazzaville in central Africa. It was subsequently shown that cash derived from the shipments was used by the son of the country's President to pay credit card bills for shopping sprees in Paris. There was no suggestion that Glencore acted improperly.

All of the "big four" point out that they operate in accordance with international law and the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development's guidelines on business conduct. But campaigners complain that a lack of transparency in the industry means that proper scrutiny of the oil-rich governments in Africa and the middlemen they deal with is impossible.

Gavin Hayman, director of campaigns for Global Witness, said: "These companies play a major role in selling Africa's oil and their operations are notoriously opaque. It would be legitimate to ask: 'How do they get these contracts, do they sell the oil for its proper price, and do they send the money back to the correct place?'

"This lack of transparency creates a big risk that corrupt officials can siphon off some of the profits and deprive ordinary citizens of their rightful benefit from natural resource wealth."

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Who Is The Author?
[info]shimky wrote:
Saturday, 26 September 2009 at 05:59 am (UTC)
Why is the author of this most excellent article not displayed? All authors should be displayed.
This is hardly breaking news, more like the elephant in the room
[info]fin_d_empire wrote:
Tuesday, 29 September 2009 at 08:14 am (UTC)
The fact that speculation and manipulation have become the determining factor in the oil market is an established fact, whatever the goose sniffing his bum may tell you.

Speculators hijack oil market


Prices have been forced up unnecessarily as investment banks and hedge funds join the ‘black gold rush’. Robert Winnett reports

The Sunday Times, September 12, 2004

A LARGE WAREHOUSE in Amsterdam may seem an unusual place to attract the City’s top traders and hedge funds. But, in the past few months, Morgan Stanley has been accumulating warehouse space in the Netherlands to store its hottest new property — oil.

This and the tankers that have been hired by the investment bank illustrate just how important oil is now becoming in the City of London and Wall Street.

Morgan Stanley may be among the most advanced of the new breed of oil speculators, but, over the past year, many banks and hedge funds have joined the “black gold rush”. With the stock market proving lacklustre, the oil market has been a godsend for the banks, which describe it as the “new Nasdaq”.

Speculators have helped to drive oil prices to near record levels — peaking at almost $50 a barrel last month. Oil is the talk of the City with many millions of pounds being made every day, and oil traders are among the most sought-after employees.

“If you can spell derivative, you can earn six figures, and anyone who can navigate his way round the oil market is offered $1m just to sign a contract,” said one trading executive.

Meanwhile, banks such as Morgan Stanley are also beginning to move into the physical market to buy oil — or even entire oilfields.

Morgan Stanley recently won the contract to supply fuel to United Airlines, and Goldman Sachs recently bought 10m barrels of oil.

A senior oil company executive said: “Even within this firm, the mechanics of the market are not widely understood. When oil prices go up, everyone talks about fundamentals and geopolitics, but the role of speculators and banks is now very significant.”

So now we know that shady freelancers have joined the fun alongside the big banks. Note that the story doesn't mention the banks but doesn't miss a chance to smear Putin with cheap gossip.

Soros agrees that speculators are the ones who are ripping us off at the pump:

Soros Cites Speculators for Soaring Oil Prices, Telegraph Says


Bloomberg, May 26, 2008

May 26 (Bloomberg) -- George Soros says speculators are a key cause of the sharp rise in the price of crude oil, the Daily Telegraph reported, citing an interview with the billionaire investor.

Whatever cash the obscenely rich can grab from laying off workers, handouts and bailouts from "business-friendly" governments, easy credit, etc., they are betting on commodities such as oil, leeching off of China's hard-earned economic success. That's why the jobless and homeless in the West increase along with profits and it takes years of booming growth to make the slightest dent in unemployment. The filthy rich are simply sitting back and sucking China's blood and letting their domestic real economy go to hell for all they care.
whodunnit?
[info]stereostan wrote:
Saturday, 26 September 2009 at 06:22 am (UTC)
i reckon this one's got Cahil Milmo's dabs all over it, guv.
v. interesting article anyway.
More ignorant drivel
[info]freedommonger wrote:
Saturday, 26 September 2009 at 06:50 am (UTC)
These companies are engaged in trading oil and oil products. This trade ensures that prices around the world that consumers pay are, overall, minimised. That is what trade does. It moves goods from where they are cheapest tro where consumers value them most.

Sadly this trade results in profits and, as the oil market is massive, the brains of little cretins go pop.

In fact this trade is a global public good.

If you want to regulate the trade then get govts to do that. The usual infantile expectation of cretins that companies will abandon seeking profit to pursue some social objective that you say they should but govts do not legislate for is, simply, infantile

As for opaqueness, the global oil market is opaque. OPEC who own 80% of the worlds proven reserves keep these reserves secret and do not let anyone in to check them. They keep their investments secret, their production secret (people are paid to sit at ports and count tankers you know as this is the only way of finding out, roughly, whats going on in OPEC exporters.

This opaqueness does harm the industry, as does the cartel quota restrictions on output that, since 1970, have ensured that 80% of global reserves supply only 40% of global output

Traders are always "opaque" for the structure and nature of their trades is the commercially confidential essence of their business.

As for storing oil whats wrong with that? If they didnt then oil would be cheaper now and more expensive later since buying now to store raises prompt prices and, as in these trades they sell the future price at the same time they purchase the prompt to store to lock in the profit, it means futures prices fall. This reduces market volatility. Is the author against reducing volatility? Why? Because someone profits from doing so?

Its a bit like the resource nationalist mental illness. Its argued that its better to have a state owned oil company and keep foreigners out because they might profit even though state owned oil companies find virtually no oil and have costs that are much higher than the "foreigners" in producing the oil they already have (vast majority discovered in the past by same said evil "foreigners"

Yes, so long as profit is not made its better we are told to be poorer. Letting a foreign oil company make a profit is wrong even if, as it nearly always does, it results in massively greater income for the country in question now, in the future and overall.

And finally, the article itself states the fact that discounts the rest of this poor article. These traders account for less than 10% of the market. Still, if you seek some emotional payoff to support your bankrupt but much loved world view, such a 10% tail can be decided (like faith sort of) to be wagging the 90% dog.

Why don't you employ someone to write about the oil industry who actually understands it? Or would that show up the rest of the staff?
Re: More ignorant drivel
[info]someofusknow wrote:
Saturday, 26 September 2009 at 08:44 am (UTC)
Since the oil industry is slowly poisoning the planet, is largely responsible for the global warming that will probably make the Earth uninhabitavle in a few decades, and is largely responoisib;e for the ozone depletion that is causing a surge in cancers, it is hard to fathom your statement: 'In fact this trade is a global public good.'

Oil has been one of the the greatest curses in human history. The sooner it riuns out the better.
Re: More ignorant drivel
[info]angryman9 wrote:
Saturday, 26 September 2009 at 09:03 am (UTC)
Well said.
Re: More ignorant drivel
[info]freedommonger wrote:
Saturday, 26 September 2009 at 09:18 am (UTC)
So you would rather have no oil?

I think thats probably true. Cave dwellingf would be more suitable for your state of mental under-development.

YOU consume oil

YOU vote for govts that legislate this trade

YOU

Grow up or shut up. These cretinous oil narratives are simple primitive witch hunting by people who dont understand what the f is going on but nonetheless are convinced of the veracity of the world view (faith)

Many industries are slowly poisoning the planet as they work to profit from supplying the goods that you demand.

Cretins
Re: More ignorant drivel
[info]freedommonger wrote:
Saturday, 26 September 2009 at 09:24 am (UTC)
The entire global economy is built on oil. This internet forum, the newsprint of the old fashioned paper, the warmth comfort and security you live in that extends your lifespan, the clothes you wear, the medicines that keep you well, the transport that lets you journey beyond how far you can walk, plastics, etc etc etc.

The entire world is built on oil. Everything we enjoy. Yet you say

[Oil has been one of the the greatest curses in human history. The sooner it riuns out the better.]

Cretin

The greatest curse in human history is not the commodity on which our well being is in large part founded

The greatest curse in human history is rather the mental aberration of human minds that insist on constructing self destroying narratives around oil because they dont understand it. Like calling the "odd" old lady a witch. Primitive, hateful, ignorant.

[Oil has been one of the the greatest curses in human history. The sooner it riuns out the better.]

Staggering. So our society rots, like a fish, from individual heads outwards.
Re: More ignorant drivel
[info]someofusknow wrote:
Saturday, 26 September 2009 at 08:59 pm (UTC)
Yes, the entire wortld is built on oil -the second biggest mistake humanity ever made, since we are now past peak oil and the oil supply is in terminal decline. That will cause complete collapse of this so-called civilisation over the coming decades and cause widepread starvation (as well as multitude of other negatives).

As usual, those who don't know the facts and lose intelectual arguiment quickly resort to insults. I too could stoop to insults, but prefer to stick to the facts and retain dignity.
Re: More ignorant drivel
[info]thelatimes wrote:
Saturday, 26 September 2009 at 04:48 pm (UTC)
Some of us know, but sadly you don't, Mr. Know-Nothing 'someofusknow'. 'The earth will be uninhabtavle [sic] in a few decades', based on what, exactly? Without oil, you wouldn't have almost all of the medicines that prevent or cure the majority of human diseases. You wouldn't have any of the conveniences of modern life, either. Of course, oil and oil derivatives cause pollution, but nowhere near as much as coal. And how are you going to burn fuels to generate energy or propel vehicles without creating pollution? Impossible. If eco-nuts like someofusknow (someofusnuts) had their way, we'd all be living in the Dark Ages still, without electricity, medicines or any other comforts of modern civilization.

freedommonger is 100% correct. Free trade is always a global public good. The original article is a very simplistic and negative view and the author has a weak understanding of the overall dynamics of the oil market. Then again, with all the negative press reports in the past year or so about financial scandals, corporate greed and scams, it seems that many journalists simply seize on any opportunity to paint anyone who makes a large profit as blacker than crude oil.
Re: More ignorant drivel
[info]someofusknow wrote:
Saturday, 26 September 2009 at 08:52 pm (UTC)
There is none so dangerous as the man (or woman) with a little bit of knowledge).
Re: More ignorant drivel
[info]montycharlesii wrote:
Monday, 28 September 2009 at 03:02 pm (UTC)
"Free trade is always a global public good" - Looooooooooooooooooool....that is brilliant - no doubt you have a big portrait of Milton Friedman hanging on your wall that you bow down to every night.

The opening of markets and free trade is not a global "public" good...it is good for multinational corporations, mainly the western kind...the "public" in the rest of the world does not benefit from free trade...quite the opposite...it holds back their development, destroys local industries and ensures that developing countries are always dependent on the 1st world...reversing the 1st world imposed "globalisation" process is the only way the developing world will ever be able to give its people a better future.

Obviously, whilst you're sitting there day dreaming about Milton, smoking ur cigar and sipping on your cognac, you are no doubt totally unaware and ignorant about the damage that free trade has done to countries throughout the world...please note - the 1% of corrupt government and private sector leaders who benefit in said countries do not constitute the "global public". Then again - why should you care...as long as you are part of the 5% of people in the world who are living comfortably, the daily struggle of the rest of the world's population is not your concern.

Free Trade is a Global Public Good...excellent...Milton would be proud.
Re: More ignorant drivel
[info]bibes01 wrote:
Saturday, 26 September 2009 at 05:29 pm (UTC)
The mistakenly named "someofusknow" who has posted here is ignorant of the facts and has clearly bought into the con of "man-made global warming"

He says:

"... the oil industry is slowly poisoning the planet.." - no it is not

,"Since the oil industry is... largely responsible for the global warming" - no it is not

"Since the oil industry.... will probably make the Earth uninhabitavle in a few decades" - complete rubbish - no scientist, even those who support this Goverment driven propaganda, say that.

"Since the oil industry...is largely responoisib;e for the ozone depletion that is causing a surge in cancers" - no scientist has said this. this is complete invention and fantasy.

And for him/her/it to say:

"it is hard to fathom your statement: 'In fact this trade is a global public good.'" displays a complete ignorance of the benefits of Global trade to lifting people out of poverty since the end of the Second World War.

And as for saying "Oil has been one of the greatest curses in human history. The sooner it riuns out the better" , this also shows a complete ignorance of history.

The iron age came to an end not because we ran out of iron. The Steam Age ended not because we ran out of steam. All the revolutionary ages of technological development ended because technology moved on. Oil will not "run out".

Change you name to "someofsusareilliterateignoramouses" and that will be nearer the mark.

And if you don't believe me, read (if you can) read the statements below.



Highlights of the Updated 2009 Senate Minority Report featuring over 700 international scientists
dissenting from man-made climate fears:

“I am a skeptic…Global warming has become a new religion.” - Nobel Prize Winner for

Physics, Ivar Giaever.



“Since I am no longer affiliated with any organization nor receiving any funding, I can
speak quite frankly….As a scientist I remain skeptical...The main basis of the claim that
man’s release of greenhouse gases is the cause of the warming is based almost entirely
upon climate models. We all know the frailty of models concerning the air-surface
system.” - Atmospheric Scientist Dr. Joanne Simpson, the first woman in the world to receive a PhD in meteorology, and formerly of NASA, who has authored more than 190 studies and has been called “among the most preeminent scientists of the last 100 years.”

Warming fears are the “worst scientific scandal in the history…When people come to
know what the truth is, they will feel deceived by science and scientists.” - UN IPCC
Japanese Scientist Dr. Kiminori Itoh, an award-winning PhD environmental physical
chemist.



“The IPCC has actually become a closed circuit; it doesn’t listen to others. It doesn’t
have open minds… I am really amazed that the Nobel Peace Prize has been given on
scientifically incorrect conclusions by people who are not geologists.” - Indian geologist
Dr. Arun D. Ahluwalia at Punjab University and a board member of the UN-supported
International Year of the Planet.



“So far, real measurements give no ground for concern about a catastrophic future
warming.” - Scientist Dr. Jarl R. Ahlbeck, a chemical engineer at Abo Akademi
University in Finland, author of 200 scientific publications and former Greenpeace
member.



“Anyone who claims that the debate is over and the conclusions are firm has a

fundamentally unscientific approach to one of the most momentous issues of our time.”

- Solar physicist Dr. Pal Brekke, senior advisor to the Norwegian Space Centre in Oslo.

Brekke has published more than 40 peer-reviewed scientific articles on the sun and solar

interaction with the Earth.



“The models and forecasts of the UN IPCC "are incorrect because they only are based

on mathematical models and presented results at scenarios that do not include, for

example, solar activity.” - Victor Manuel Velasco Herrera, a researcher at the Institute of

Geophysics of the National Autonomous University of Mexico



Re: More ignorant drivel
[info]someofusknow wrote:
Saturday, 26 September 2009 at 08:50 pm (UTC)
The ignorant and desperate often resort to insults and name-calling when they lose intellectual arguments.

I have a degree in chemistry and spent a lifetime working with industrial chemicals, many made made from oil. I know what is poisonous and what is not, unlike many physicists and engineers, who haven't got the first idea how this planet functions.
Re: More ignorant drivel
[info]bibes01 wrote:
Sunday, 27 September 2009 at 12:41 pm (UTC)
So Mr "someofusarestupid" has a degree in Chemistry. Then why is he so pig ignorant?
Methinks he's a fantasist.
Re: More ignorant drivel
[info]bibes01 wrote:
Sunday, 27 September 2009 at 12:42 pm (UTC)
So Mr "someofusarestupid" has a degree in Chemistry.

Hmmm... then why is he so pig ignorant?

Methinks he's a fantasist.
Re: More ignorant drivel
[info]someofusknow wrote:
Sunday, 27 September 2009 at 08:48 pm (UTC)
Copernicus, Galileo, Darwin ...... the list of people who were perfectly correct but were ridiculed by their ignorant peers is too long for this column.
Re: More ignorant drivel
[info]bibes01 wrote:
Saturday, 26 September 2009 at 05:33 pm (UTC)
and there's more;;



“It is a blatant lie put forth in the media that makes it seem there is only a fringe of

scientists who don’t buy into anthropogenic global warming.” - U.S Government

Atmospheric Scientist Stanley B. Goldenberg of the Hurricane Research Division of

NOAA.



“Even doubling or tripling the amount of carbon dioxide will virtually have little impact,

as water vapour and water condensed on particles as clouds dominate the worldwide

scene and always will.” – . Geoffrey G. Duffy, a professor in the Department of Chemical

and Materials Engineering of the University of Auckland, NZ.



“After reading (UN IPCC chairman) Pachauri's asinine comment (comparing skeptics

to Flat Earthers), it's hard to remain quiet.” - Climate statistician Dr. William M. Briggs,

who specializes in the statistics of forecast evaluation, serves on the American

Meteorological Society's Probability and Statistics Committee and is an Associate Editor of

Monthly Weather Review.



“The Kyoto theorists have put the cart before the horse. It is global warming that triggers

higher levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, not the other way round…A large

number of critical documents submitted at the 1995 U.N. conference in Madrid vanished

without a trace. As a result, the discussion was one-sided and heavily biased, and the

U.N. declared global warming to be a scientific fact,” Andrei Kapitsa, a Russian

geographer and Antarctic ice core researcher.



“I am convinced that the current alarm over carbon dioxide is mistaken...Fears about

man-made global warming are unwarranted and are not based on good science.” -

Award Winning Physicist Dr. Will Happer, Professor at the Department of Physics at

Princeton University and Former Director of Energy Research at the Department of

Energy, who has published over 200 scientific papers, and is a fellow of the American

Physical Society, The American Association for the Advancement of Science, and the

National Academy of Sciences.



“Nature's regulatory instrument is water vapor: more carbon dioxide leads to less

moisture in the air, keeping the overall GHG content in accord with the necessary

balance conditions.” – Prominent Hungarian Physicist and environmental researcher Dr.

Miklós Zágoni reversed his view of man-made warming and is now a skeptic. Zágoni was

once Hungary’s most outspoken supporter of the Kyoto Protocol.



“For how many years must the planet cool before we begin to understand that the planet

is not warming? For how many years must cooling go on?" - Geologist Dr. David Gee

the chairman of the science committee of the 2008 International Geological Congress who

has authored 130 plus peer reviewed papers, and is currently at Uppsala University in

Sweden.



“Gore prompted me to start delving into the science again and I quickly found myself

solidly in the skeptic camp…Climate models can at best be useful for explaining climate

changes after the fact.” - Meteorologist Hajo Smit of Holland, who reversed his belief in

man-made warming to become a skeptic, is a former member of the Dutch UN IPCC

committee.



“The quantity of CO2 we produce is insignificant in terms of the natural circulation

between air, water and soil... I am doing a detailed assessment of the UN IPCC reports

and the Summaries for Policy Makers, identifying the way in which the Summaries have

distorted the science.” - South Afican Nuclear Physicist and Chemical Engineer Dr. Philip

Lloyd, a UN IPCC co-coordinating lead author who has authored over 150 refereed

publications.


Re: More ignorant drivel
[info]someofusknow wrote:
Saturday, 26 September 2009 at 08:44 pm (UTC)
Ignorance prevails in many high places. Water vapour is a secondary cause of global warming: the amount of water vapour in the atmosphere is dependent on temperature.
Re: More ignorant drivel
[info]bibes01 wrote:
Saturday, 26 September 2009 at 05:34 pm (UTC)
and even more....



“Many [scientists] are now searching for a way to back out quietly (from promoting

warming fears), without having their professional careers ruined.” - Atmospheric

physicist James A. Peden, formerly of the Space Research and Coordination Center in

Pittsburgh.



“All those urging action to curb global warming need to take off the blinkers and give

some thought to what we should do if we are facing global cooling instead.” -

Geophysicist Dr. Phil Chapman, an astronautical engineer and former NASA astronaut,

served as staff physicist at MIT (Massachusetts Institute of Technology)



“Creating an ideology pegged to carbon dioxide is a dangerous nonsense…The present

alarm on climate change is an instrument of social control, a pretext for major

businesses and political battle. It became an ideology, which is concerning.” -

Environmental Scientist Professor Delgado Domingos of Portugal, the founder of the

Numerical Weather Forecast group, has more than 150 published articles.



“CO2 emissions make absolutely no difference one way or another….Every scientist

knows this, but it doesn’t pay to say so…Global warming, as a political vehicle, keeps

Europeans in the driver’s seat and developing nations walking barefoot.” - Dr. Takeda

Kunihiko, vice-chancellor of the Institute of Science and Technology Research at Chubu

University in Japan.



“The [global warming] scaremongering has its justification in the fact that it is

something that generates funds.” - Award-winning Paleontologist Dr. Eduardo Tonni, of

the Committee for Scientific Research in Buenos Aires and head of the Paleontology

Department at the University of La Plata.



“Whatever the weather, it's not being caused by global warming. If anything, the climate

may be starting into a cooling period.” Atmospheric scientist Dr. Art V. Douglas, former

Chair of the Atmospheric Sciences Department at Creighton University in Omaha,

Nebraska, and is the author of numerous papers for peer-reviewed publications.



“But there is no falsifiable scientific basis whatever to assert this warming is caused by

human-produced greenhouse gasses because current physical theory is too grossly

inadequate to establish any cause at all.” - Chemist Dr. Patrick Frank, who has authored

more than 50 peer-reviewed articles.



“The ‘global warming scare’ is being used as a political tool to increase government

control over American lives, incomes and decision making. It has no place in the

Society's activities.” - Award-Winning NASA Astronaut/Geologist and Moonwalker Jack

Schmitt who flew on the Apollo 17 mission and formerly of the Norwegian Geological

Survey and for the U.S. Geological Survey.



“Earth has cooled since 1998 in defiance of the predictions by the UN-IPCC….The

global temperature for 2007 was the coldest in a decade and the coldest of the

millennium…which is why ‘global warming’ is now called ‘climate change.’” -

Climatologist Dr. Richard Keen of the Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences at

the University of Colorado.


“I have yet to see credible proof of carbon dioxide driving climate change, yet alone

man-made CO2 driving it. The atmospheric hot-spot is missing and the ice core data

refute this. When will we collectively awake from this deceptive delusion?” - Dr. G

LeBlanc Smith, a retired Principal Research Scientist with Australia’s CSIRO. (The full

quotes of the scientists are later in this report)
Re: More ignorant drivel
[info]someofusknow wrote:
Saturday, 26 September 2009 at 08:41 pm (UTC)
NOAA: 2009 recorded the hottest ocean temperatures in recent human history, due to the build up of CO2 in the atmosphere.

The formation of calcareous shells by numerous species is suffering as a consequience of the drop in pH of the oceans due to build up of CO2 in the oceans. Once the oceans are dead, the rest of the planet follows very soon after.

Those with vested interests and their bought-and-paid-for lackeys will deny reality to the bitter end -and it will be very bitter.
Re: More ignorant drivel
[info]freedommonger wrote:
Saturday, 26 September 2009 at 08:44 am (UTC)
..I was wrong. Of course you don't employ such people because it would upset the READERS!
This trade ensures prices are minimised
[info]corporeal_v002 wrote:
Saturday, 26 September 2009 at 04:04 pm (UTC)
"This trade ensures that prices around the world that consumers pay are, overall, minimised. That is what trade does."

No mate, the trade is a business, it's primary goal is to make money and loads of it at that. The trade is not a charity to serve mankind...
Re: This trade ensures prices are minimised
[info]freedommonger wrote:
Saturday, 26 September 2009 at 04:50 pm (UTC)
corpreal,

how do you "think" trade works? how can a profit be turned? only by buying where its cheap and selling where its expensive.

which bit dont you get?

a profit is made AND a public good is created, everyone is richer. Trade is not a zero sum game. try this 2 person world example

1. A and B both need product X and Y to live
2. A can make X for 1 unit of effort and Y for 2 units of effort - A is good at making X
3. B can make X for 2 units of effort and Y for 1 unit of effort - B is good at making Y

Scenario 1: No trade

A has to use 1 unit to make his X and 2 units of effort to make his Y = 3 units of effort
B has to use 2 units to make his X and 1 unit of effort to make his Y = 3 units of effort

total - 6 units

Scenario 2: Trade

A makes all the X so uses 1 unit of effort to make his X and 1 extra unit of effort to make B's X = 2 units of effort
B makes all the Y so uses 1 unit of effort to make his Y and 1 extra unit of effort to make A's Y = 2 units of effort

A and B trade swapping 1unit of X for 1 unit of Y

In BOTH scenarios A and B get 1 of x and 1 of Y. Where they don't trade they use 3 units of effort. Where they do trade they use 33% less effort and can use that to make some Q maybe, or sit about at leisure

These cost differences in producing oil, TV's, cars, novels, wigs, in fact EVERYTHING exist.

Got it? So if you stop trade to end profits you will do what?

Nose cut to spite face but too pig thick to realise. This is pre O level (the new easy ones) economics.

total - 6 units
Re: This trade ensures prices are minimised
[info]corporeal_v002 wrote:
Saturday, 26 September 2009 at 05:03 pm (UTC)

Easy tiger, no point throwing a hiss-fit!

What these guys are doing is known as hoarding. By hoarding they are creating a shortage thereby increasing the oil price.

Typically, the price is dictated by oil producer and consumer. But here the middle man is getting in on the act - this is wrong - maybe not in international law but morally.

But these days who's got time for morality?
Re: This trade ensures prices are minimised
[info]freedommonger wrote:
Saturday, 26 September 2009 at 05:42 pm (UTC)
oh dear, demonstration display ignorance.

today, due to a collapse in demand, oil is in excess supply. In 12 months the economy is expected to pick up and demand will increase. The market is expected to be tighter.

This isnt hoarding, its responding to market signals that say the people value oil more in 12 months, by an amount that covers the cost of storage plus a profit.

You are suggesting that the market glut today should not be stored thus crashing prices today leaving a potential shortage and price spike in 12 months

Cretinous doesnt quite catch it, but I am out of words to capture your studied stupidity.

Get an o-level economics text book, Start at the beginning. When you have read it it may be worth writing your views in public, but I doubt it.
Re: This trade ensures prices are minimised
[info]corporeal_v002 wrote:
Saturday, 26 September 2009 at 07:19 pm (UTC)

Everone know about how the markets work. But there is much more to life than just making money by shafting people.

Most humans are born selfless, but, sadly, some turn out like you.

But then this life is but a test and you are testing me with your smug responses...
Re: This trade ensures prices are minimised
[info]freedommonger wrote:
Saturday, 26 September 2009 at 07:54 pm (UTC)
sorry if I am infringing your rights.

did you read the article about how extremists are radicalised here in the UK? At home. Which paper do you think they read? What is the background noise in society? yes, people like you excercising their right to self indulgent ignorance

still, maybe you dont travel by tube so why would you give a f

p.s. you patently didnt know how markets work

[What these guys are doing is known as hoarding. By hoarding they are creating a shortage thereby increasing the oil price.]

we are in a glut
Re: This trade ensures prices are minimised
[info]stevejones1234 wrote:
Saturday, 26 September 2009 at 09:05 pm (UTC)
-----"[What these guys are doing is known as hoarding. By hoarding they are creating a shortage thereby increasing the oil price.]"----
No hoarding is creating an artificial shortage. If supply equalled demand, and these guys took 15% of the supply off the market they would create an artificial shortage, but the problem at the moment is that supply exceeds demand. If nobody bought up the excess oil the oil producers would shut off the taps, but when demand shot up with the economic upturn, then demand would outstrip supply and there would be a shortage and prices would zoom up.
The virtue of speculation
[info]stevejones1234 wrote:
Saturday, 26 September 2009 at 08:57 pm (UTC)
Speculators are necessary to maintain liquidity. Imagine you wanted to sell some land, or a car, and found that nobody needed either for direct use. You would find yourself unable to raise capital. A speculator will buy your land in the hope that later he can sell it at a profit, and a second-hand car salesman, who is nothing more than a speculator, will buy your car because he hopes to sell it for a future price greater than he paid.

Companies that buy oil that is surplus to present requirements in the hope it will sell for higher prices in the future, as these are, are helping to maintain the stability of the oil market.

The trouble however is there is no stop to speculation. The oil price surge was caused by people buying oil at high prices in the hope of selling it at even higher ones, thus causing massive instability.

Thus speculation can cause stability or instability in the markets.

Re: The virtue of speculation
[info]freedommonger wrote:
Saturday, 26 September 2009 at 09:47 pm (UTC)
I beg to differ. The oil price rise was caused by a demand boom resulting from the economic boom itself resulting from China entry to the global economy and a decade of free money (low/negative real interest rates) meeting a fixed oil supply due to the OPEC cartel.

It makes me weep to see people here accuse traders of hoarding when they are simply responding to a glut itself caused due to backlash from OPEC hoarding of 80% of the worlds oil reserves producing only 40% of the worlds oil output. As so often the usual suspects have a firm internet foundation (you can find some moron to support any proposition on the web, try it. Anything!) for believing the absolute opposite of the truth. Well done!

Speculation can cause instability but to do so your positions must be large in relation to the overall market. The investigations into the oil market spike show the opposite. Speculative positions made less than 10% of the market thus COULD NOT have driven the spike. What they could have done is amplified it.

But this activity of buying the spot market price of oil and, at the same time, selling the futures price and storing the oil you bought to deliver when the future you sold falls due is NOT speculation

There is no risk. The purchase at spot and sale of future are done AT THE SAME TIME. It is risk free save for the risk that your oil storage fails or blows up.

Its NOT speculation. Speculation is when you take a bet, a risk.
Who is the real scam master...
[info]avinashvp wrote:
Monday, 28 September 2009 at 08:31 am (UTC)
When countries like US and the UK can attack OIL producing countries and create a mess in the oil industry by controlling the dollar flow in the market and taking control of the occupied countries... there is no bigger scam in the world that the one played by US and UK governments.
Re: Who is the real scam master...
[info]freedommonger wrote:
Monday, 28 September 2009 at 10:16 am (UTC)
Iraq is the only oil producing country attacked by the UK or USA in recent decades. They have not taken "control" in any sense other than to fight to allow free Iraqis to make their own choices about how they want to develop their own oil.

The US "controls" the dollar market as any country "controls" its currency. What are you on about? People are free to buy and sell their oil in any currency they wish. They choose, freely, in the main to transact in US dollars because these are the deepest most liquid markets thus ensuring they get the best price in their local currency. An increasing umber nonetheless choose to transact in Euro's and other currencies. Such is freedom, they are observably free to do so.

There is no scam, just ignorance and, I think, group hysteria

Unless of course you can explain what you mean in terms that are fact based rather than just assertions that no doubt you have grazed from the internet and the media sewer. Have you? I do yield to facts, just as I rail against ignorance and assertion. My mea culpa awaits your arguments
Re: Who is the real scam master...
[info]tobmig wrote:
Monday, 28 September 2009 at 11:33 am (UTC)
So what are petro dollars then? From what I've heard countries who want to buy OPEC oil must first increase their USD holdings, with which they can buy oil. This distorts the worth of a dollar in favour of the US as it can literally print dollars in exchange for goods from countries who require oil. This oil currency hemogeny is fine as long as everyone agrees to buy with dollars and allows the US to benefit unequally from this trade.

Only 2 countries in OPEC have made policy to sell their oil for currency other than the USD. That would be Iraq and Iran. Now call me a 'conspiracy theorist' but, as someone earlier pointed out on this thread Iraq is the only oil producing country that has been invaded by the US. Iran is increasingly looking like a 2nd candidate (lets not bring up the Shah and the British etc...). And please, if anyone mentions nuclear weapon development as a reason I would like to point out North Korea. Venuzuela has also preposed to exchanging oil for goods with neighbouring countries and of course their President Chavez accuses the US of complicity with those in his country who tried to depose him in years gone by. If anyone says these particular incidents and situations around the world involving the US and US subordinates are mere coincidence then all I can recommend is ( in the vernacular of US presidency election rhetoric) stop drinking the Kool-Aid.

Quite literallly I do believe that trade is good. unfettered trade in the hands of unscrupulous people invariably ends up as bad. Accountablilty to profit alone does not serve the wider good of anyone. In theory it does, but in practice humand are far too undisciplined to actaully pull it off in any convincing and moral way.
Re: Who is the real scam master...
[info]ancientoneuk wrote:
Monday, 28 September 2009 at 03:11 pm (UTC)
As it happens I think Indonesia and Venezuela are both looking to break out of the OPeC trading shackles, especially looking to accept rouble and yuen which will possibly leave Saudi Arabia on its own as a sole dollar trader.

Chavez has hinted now several times that he may be looking to force the US to trade in Euros, Iran last week dropped the dollar completely and will only accept Euro, Rouble or Yuen.

America is in deep trouble and literally needs to look to drawing down its oil dependency drastically, Venezuela supplies America a full fifth of its essential imports and if the US is forced to trade for that oil via an alternative currency, trying to use a currency that nobody wants and is likely to collapse at some point, with a reduced manufactoring base, America has nothing to sell that the world wants and it is thus why analysts are saying that America is facing a far more horrific economic crash in the near future.
Re: Who is the real scam master...
[info]tobmig wrote:
Tuesday, 29 September 2009 at 03:16 am (UTC)
I'm amazed people don't wonder why America gets into so many wars and stand offs with so many 'interests' around the world. Lets set it out as simple as possible.

Up to now the US has had a free ride and made itself rich from asymetrical trade deals. Oil, basic resources and consumer goods have been traded for printed (petro)dollars made out of NOTHING. (see freedommonger for basic lesson in economics) They literally get their economy supported and traded with for NO WORK DONE in return. Instead, a few foreign leaders (supported by American bought and built weaponry) can enrich themselves, whilst stealing from and keeping thier own populations poor and in check, regardless of the vast amounts of natural resources they have at their disposal. This is what the US has been doing for decades. But now the game is up.

Dictators and despots around the world have realised that being backed by America is not as secure as it used to be and have further developed their scams and population manipulations into complex systems that enrich them and keep them in power (See China) and also don't need the outside assistance of the US. Which sometimes comes in the form of invasion or coups or assisinations/neutralisation of key political/industry/corporate figures.

THe US trade policy depends on basic human greed and short sightedness. Especially in places like Africa and the middle east. As some of these countries become more democratic and and representative and even nationalistic, the less influence the US can wield inside these countries. I think this may lead to more aggression OR more diplomacy from the US depending on whose in charge there.
Whoa
[info]wzsteen wrote:
Monday, 28 September 2009 at 12:47 pm (UTC)
Dude that is so cool! I like it!

RT
www.total-privacy.net.tc

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