Afghan run-off may force US hand on troops
Obama ponders reinforcements as Kabul authorities face struggle to ensure fair vote
AFP/GETTY IMAGES
A poster for the Afghan President Hamid Karzai towers over pedestrians in Kabul yesterday
The White House signalled last night that Hamid Karzai's decision to accept a run-off vote in Afghanistan could expedite a verdict on whether to increase US troop numbers there.
But as Barack Obama's spokesman, Robert Gibbs, told reporters that it was "certainly possible" the crucial answer on troop levels would come before the November ballot, election experts in Kabul warned too little is being done to ensure the run-off is any more credible than the first, fraud-ridden round.
Separately, US officials emphasised that a power-sharing agreement remained a strong possibility as a way of resolving the crisis without a return to the ballot box. In an NBC TV interview last night the President appeared to acknowledge that the situation remains fluid. "I think we're still... finding out how this whole process in Afghanistan is going to unfold," he said.
Despite a vast logistical effort across the country, led by the Independent Electoral Commission (IEC), to transport millions of fresh ballot papers, boxes and indelible ink, observers issued a damning verdict on the chances of a fair election the second time around.
"The worrying thing in this election is okay, we knew fraud had been committed. You had all these fraud mitigation policies drafted by the IEC – and they didn't follow them," said one Western election official. "What ... are they going to do to mitigate that fraud? I really don't know. I don't have a clue."
Mr Karzai's reluctant acceptance that a run-off was inevitable came after a UN-backed commission found that nearly one-third of his votes were fraudulent, depressing his numbers to just below the required 50 per cent. Had he resisted – and he was a hair's breadth from doing so – chaos could have ensued. But the new vote will not solve all of Afghanistan's electoral problems. Continuing scepticism about the prospects of a fair ballot has done little to bolster public confidence in the US mission in Afghanistan. An ABC-Washington Post poll yesterday showed the US divided over whether Mr Obama should accede to his commanders' request for more troops. And a large majority said they did not believe he had a clear plan for the war. A new vote would at least provide an American administration desperate for good news from Kabul with some evidence of progress.
The signs so far, however, are that a trouble-free re-run could be a tall order. The UN confirmed yesterday that it would fire 200 of the 380 district election chiefs in an effort to reduce fraud. But a shake-up of the leadership a fortnight before voting has the potential to be a political and managerial nightmare.
The IEC must rehire part-time staff to man polling centres, passing over any who were complicit in the vote rigging or failed to follow procedures the first time. Observers need to be mustered. And Afghan and international forces must mobilise troops to defend polling centres from Taliban attack. The UN has set aside more than $20m (£12m) to support the poll.
"They said they would be looking into staffing problems but of course they're not going to be able to do that in the next two weeks," the Western election official said.
Another election official said that the IEC had to be more accountable. "The meetings of the IEC need to be open and transparent," said Ahmad Nader Nadery, head of the Free and Fair Election Foundation of Afghanistan. "In the past election... they were not."
In an attempt to limit the impact of corruption, the number of polling stations – the individual booths at each polling centre – will be slashed from 23,000 to 16,000. The aim is to eliminate those where wholesale ballot stuffing took place. A UN spokesman said this would not reduce voting. "If a polling station returned mainly illegitimate papers, we're not disenfranchising voters, we're disenfranchising people who tried to cheat," said Aleem Siddique.
Rumours of a power-sharing deal have swirled around Kabul. They were given further credence last night by an Associated Press report that a US defence official had said the two governments were continuing to discuss that possibility. But Mr Karzai has said emphatically that he would prefer to beat the opposition candidate, Abdullah Abdullah, in a run-off than swallow a compromise. "He wants to go to a second round," said Ahmed Wali Karzai, the President's half-brother.
For his part, Mr Abdullah said he would only take part in the run-off if certain conditions were met to mitigate cheating. He told reporters that "in order to prepare the ground for transparency and fairness of the elections we have certain recommendations, suggestions as well as conditions that... we will come up with soon".
He also said "certain sad realities" made it impossible to stop the Taliban from intimidating voters. Although both candidates claim more voters than last time will turn out the reality is that there is little appetite for more polling. Turnout estimates were as low as 5 per cent for some areas hit particularly hard by the insurgency last time. In Kandahar City, the streets were deserted at midday and the Taliban hanged two people who had braved the rockets and gunfire to get to polling centres, as well as cutting the ink-stained fingers off others.
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Many of us with working brains will scoff at their stupidy but, in reality, it's quite sad. Those mugs have families who will, at some time in the future, realise that their dopey 'hero' died absolutely in vain for nothing and nobody. Not much consolation there.
I suggest that the army uniform incorporates the word Loser, front and back, in order to avoid any misunderstandings.
So operation "panthers claw" failed then?
This means, they will have to do it again.
The UK casualty rate is an unsustainable 25%. The Yanks can't bring in many more troops because a) the Taliban are taking a heavy toll on NATO supply lines, limiting the number of troops than can be supported b) Iraq is going critical again as all its balkanized factions gear up for the mother of all civil wars that will erupt as soon as the Yanks skedaddle out of there. Not content with blowing up Shiite mosques, the Sunnis are kicking Yank butt in Anbar again, paying them back for betraying the Sons of Iraq to the Iranian stooge Maliki.
Consequently, all this talk about a new troop surge is merely a Vietnam remake. In Nam the Yanks stated peace talks with the Viets right after the 1968 Tet offensive, while simultaneously escalating their bombing and increasing their ground forces to obtain a stronger bargaining position. The new name of the game is negotiations:
1) The Taliban is only present on the Afghan-Pakistani border because they fled everywhere else. The Taliban control nothing of any importance in Afghanistan, and there is only law and order because everyone has fled from Taliban controlled areas.
2) What the hell is the 25% casualty rate meant to mean? There have been about 200 deaths in an army of about 10,000 so the number of deads that have died is less than 1%.
3) Iraq is not about to have another civil war. Increased activity of criminal gangs does not mean there is a civil war.
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This is mathematically impossible.
The 1 in 3 votes perhaps refers to some particular part of the vote, not all of it? Yet here and everywhere else (BBC, press) the report is 1 in 3 votes of the total were invalid.
Is it the case that the massed "talents" of journalists cannot manage to report the basic facts? Anyone got an explanation? Or are we happy so long as the lies we are fed chime with our prejudice?
As for Afghans, let them vote. You also forgot to mention the Afghan man who literally had his face cut off for voting. Why on earth would anyone oppose such people as these Taliban (excluding basic decency and humanity of course, only Yanquis are held to any of those sort of standards)
Because we were told the tenuous reason that there is a big bad boogeyman hiding there in a cave who was behind 9/11 and his nasty gang who want to stop us Westerners enjoying our lives....so as a result the entire UK and Us population are terrorist suspects and have their liberties taken away, "because we can't let the terrorists win"
and our troops are killed...all on lies.....
What times we live in!!
And the Main stream press sit idly by and fail to expose this treason and perpetuate the hellish police state that this country has become....
I hope the pay cheque is worth it....
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A puppet...he will be worse than Bush as he has a brain...scary man
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