Damned if he does, and damned if he doesn't

The resolution to be adopted by the UN Security Council will give an ultimatum to Saddam Hussein that will lead to his political emasculation if he complies or the crushing of his regime by military means if he does not.

Madeleine Albright, the former US secretary of state, used to say President Saddam could end the suffering of the Iraqi people just by saying "yes" to the UN weapons inspections, which would secure the lifting of UN trade sanctions. This time, the aim of the American-drafted resolution is to ensure that President Saddam will be damned either way.

Iraq is in no doubt about the Americans' intentions. "The main issue is how the Americans would use that resolution for their own purposes. This is the most important issue. We find the whole resolution constitutes a trigger to wage war against my country," the Iraqi ambassador to the UN, Mohammed Aldouri, said yesterday.

The US says this really is the "final opportunity" for the Iraqi President to comply. The resolution says Iraq has violated its obligations under the terms of the ceasefire that ended the Gulf War in 1991. In other words, Iraq is in "material breach" of UN resolution 687, and so a state of war exists. "He has already committed a mortal sin. If he commits any more mortal sins, he's going to hell anyway," a senior official said.

Washington, armed with its own war powers from Congress, believes that the US already has the necessary authority for military action under UN resolutions. US officials therefore dismiss suggestions that the resolution is a fig leaf to provide UN cover for war.

The text is crafted to avoid the same cat-and-mouse games that enabled the Iraqi leader to keep his weapons of mass destruction while stringing the UN inspectors along until they ended in 1998 amid spying allegations. This time, at the first sign of cheating, the US will act. The resolution tells President Saddam that it is no longer enough to admit to holding biological and chemical weapons and calls for the first time for him to account for specific delivery systems that could be used for germ and chemical warfare.

If he complies, he will be subject to stringent surveillance for years to come. If President Saddam prefers to keep his weapons, he can expect a war.